The Sectoral and Regional Effects of Brexit
A joint seminar by NIESR & UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex

Date: Wednesday 28 November 2018

Time: 9.00 Registration & Light Breakfast

9.30 till 11 am Presentations and Q&A

Venue: National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2 Dean Trench St, Smith Square, London SW1P 3HE

Please register here

In this joint seminar, our speakers will discuss the findings of two papers that look at the impact of different Brexit deals on the structure of the UK economy.  The Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK negotiators is now known and there will be an opportunity to discuss its possible effects.

 

Brexit and manufacturing jobs by Dr. Michael Gasiorek, Dr. Ilona Serwicka and Prof. Alasdair Smith, UKTPO (University of Sussex)
This paper investigates the effect of Brexit on the manufacturing sector, looking specifically at the detailed sectors that are most vulnerable to Brexit.  Preliminary findings, based on partial equilibrium modelling, suggest that high-tech and medium-high tech manufacturing sectors are more at risk of a significant decline in domestic production than medium and medium-low tech sectors.

The Sectoral Implications of Brexit by Dr. Garry Young (NIESR)
This paper will investigate the effect of Brexit on the economy more broadly, including the service sectors using a general equilibrium macroeconomic modelling approach.   Findings from that approach suggest that manufacturing may be shielded from the effects of a hard-Brexit as exchange rate depreciation shifts the burden of adjustment to consumer-facing industries.

Places are limited, therefore to ensure attendance please RSVP as soon as possible.

Please register here

or call Luca on 020 7654 1931

Please note: Due to the nature of NIESR’s Grade II listed building, we are unable to provide step-free access to our facilities and the Library is not currently accessible to wheelchair users, or those with limited mobility. We apologise for the inconvenience. Please do let us know in advance how we can assist your visit to the Institute we are happy to discuss alternative arrangement in order to access our events.

 

The Brexit Burden: A constituency level analysis for Hampshire and Sussex

20 November 2018, 17:30 – 19:15

The Clarendon Centre, 47-49 New England Street, Brighton, BN1 4GQ

Please register here

Speakers:    Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex
Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant: Cllr Garry Wall, Leader, Mid Sussex District Council and Chair of the Greater Brighton Economic Board

Chair:           Christina Ewbank, CEO and Past President of Eastbourne unLtd Chamber of Commerce

Overview

A ‘no deal’ Brexit could lead to an employment loss of around 39,000 jobs in Hampshire and Sussex, this is according to a new study by researchers at the UK Trade Policy Observatory, who analysed the impact of Brexit on employment across the 34 parliamentary constituencies within Hampshire and Sussex.

 In the UK, South East England is the region most heavily engaged in cross-border trade. In 2017, the South East exported £45.3bn worth of goods and £34bn worth of services – and nearly a half of these exports were destined for the EU. This large value of cross-border trade, with high exposure to trade with the EU, means that a ‘no deal’ Brexit could be particularly disruptive to the South East of England’s economy.

 After allowing for the fact that people often live and work in different places, we estimate that the shock to residents of Hampshire and Sussex could be equivalent to the loss of about 43,000 jobs. The research suggests that constituencies such as Aldershot, Eastleigh and Brighton Pavilion may be among those most heavily impacted.

 Given that Brexit decisions will ultimately be taken on the floor of the House of Commons, this study will provide a base from which Hampshire and Sussex MPs can start to assess the impact of Brexit on their constituents.

Please register here


What can Britain expect from trade agreements on Services?

15 November 2018, 12:30 – 13:30

Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London, SW1Y 4LE

Please register here

This event is being held to launch the UKTPO’s two latest briefing papers:
  • Briefing Paper 24: ‘UK’s future services trade deals with non-EU countries: A reality check’
  • Briefing Paper 25: ‘Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators’

Speakers:

  • Dr Minako Morita Jaeger
  • Julia Magntorn

Discussant:

  • Christophe Bondy, Special Counsel, Cooley LLP

Chair:

  • Professor Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Overview

This meeting will provide a realistic view of what trade agreements in services can really offer. The UK government has high expectations about future services trade deals with non-EU countries. However, in practice, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) typically only provide greater legal certainty about current applied policies rather than bringing about actual trade liberalisation in services.

Based on other countries’ experiences, the UK government will face several significant challenges and complexities in negotiating services FTAs with non-EU countries. For example, services trade negotiations are all about regulations, but the domestic authorities responsible for regulation are typically risk averse (it’s their job!). They are usually not well set-up for international collaboration and see little benefit from it in terms of their own objectives. To make progress on FTAs, the UK government will need to encourage many bodies across government to engage in the negotiations. Second, the UK has little to offer to its FTA partners because, except for Mode 4 (movement of natural persons), which is highly sensitive, UK services markets are already de facto pretty open.

A third complexity is that the UK’s bargaining power will be limited by the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses for services policies that exist in several of the EU’s existing FTAs. These mean that any concessions that partners could offer to the UK may have to be extended ‘for free’ to the EU (an economy six times larger than the UK); in addition, the EU will be discouraged from offering the UK generous terms because these will have to be extended to countries like Japan and Canada.

Overall, therefore, it is not realistic to expect that future trade deals with non-EU countries will be able to recoup the losses of services trade that the UK will incur by leaving the European Single Market.

The meeting will be based on two new Briefing Papers from the UKTPO:

Briefing Paper 24: UK’s future services trade deals with non-EU countries: A reality check explains why it is so difficult to achieve actual liberalisation in service negotiations and what FTAs, in practice, can offer. The Paper then discusses the major factors that diminish the UK’s future FTA partners’ incentives for making concessions.

Briefing Paper 25: Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators provides a comprehensive overview of the EU’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses on services and investment. It discusses their scope and the exceptions they contain, and then considers how these clauses are likely to limit the extent of concessions that the EU and its existing partners are prepared to grant the UK.

Please register here


Not backing Britain: FDI Inflows since the Brexit Referendum

31 October 2018, 9:15 – 10:15am

10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH

Please register here

Speakers:

  • Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex
  • Nicolo Tamberi, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant:

  • Jagjit S Chadha, Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Chair:

  • Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex

Overview

The United Kingdom has historically been one of the main recipients of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), attracting more greenfield investment than other large European economies. However, the Brexit vote has introduced considerable uncertainty over the future growth potential of the UK market, and the ease of cross-border flow of goods and services. Following a peak of inward investment activity in early 2015, the number of FDI project announcements for the UK and the UK’s share of the European market for FDI have been falling.

In this briefing paper we provide an analysis of inward FDI to the UK before and after the EU referendum, looking at the main foreign investors, which sectors they invest in and how trends in inward FDI have evolved over time. Our work suggests that following the Brexit vote, inward investment has been 16-20 per cent lower than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain a member of the EU, but that this impact differs depending on the sector.

Please register here


We need to talk about Donald

3 October 2018, 18:30 – 20:00

The Graduate Institute Geneva, Auditorium A2 | Maison de la Paix, Chemin Eugène Rigot, 2 GENEVA

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For a decade or more tensions have been rising in the World Trading System. The stresses felt by less-skilled workers in developed countries, accusations of malpractice on investment and intellectual property in emerging markets, covert measures of protection and low aggregate trade growth have all contributed to a sense of unease and disappointment. But with the election of President Trump in the USA, these uncomfortable itches have flared up into a painful and disconcerting rash. With tariffs escalating and institutions under fire, we have to ask ‘what are we going to do?’
This seminar brings together experts from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) and the Graduate Institute to discuss US trade policies and the rest of the world’s response to them in the context of the multilateral system. The meeting will comprise two presentations, commentary and discussion.
  • Trade Wars: possible responses and consequences

Dr Michael GASIOREK, UK Trade Policy Observatory
Dr Ilona SERWICKA, UK Trade Policy Observatory
Prof. Alasdair SMITH, UK Trade Policy Observatory

  • Trumpian commercial policy: Trade war, or reverse regionalism?

Richard BALDWIN, Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva

  • Question & Answers

Chair: Prof. L. Alan WINTERS CB, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory
The discussion will be followed by a light reception in the Hall of Petal 2 (Maison de la Paix)


Fishing in Deep Waters

25 July 2018 – 12:30pm to 1:30pm

Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London | SW1Y 4LE

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Speakers:

Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO)
Suzannah F Walmesley, Principal Consultant, ABPmer

Discussant:
Matthew Whittles, Team Leader: Trade in fish | EU and International Fisheries, DEFRA will be the discussant.

Chair:
Jim Rollo CMG, Emeritus Professor of European Economics, University of Sussex; Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview

Leaving the EU will involve some combination of changes in tariffs, non-tariff measures, and also the amount of fish quotas that can be caught by the UK and the EU respectively. Several politicians and commentators have stated that Brexit means that the UK can take back control of its fishing waters. The aim of this Briefing Paper is twofold. First, to detail the policy environment, and the policy considerations facing the UK government in the Brexit negotiations. Secondly, to provide an empirical assessment of what the impact on leaving the EU might be on the seafood industry. As the nature of the UK’s future trade relations with the EU are still uncertain, in this paper we explore several simulations which aim, broadly speaking, to capture the key variants of Brexit that appear to be under discussion. 


Analytical Studies of Brexit

Tuesday 3 July 2018, 09.15-16.15

Chatham House, St James’s Square, London

An academic conference looking at the economics of Brexit, hosted by the UKTPO and Chatham House. Six papers will be presented over the course of the day, which will end with a roundtable discussion chaired by Chris Giles, Economics Editor for the Financial Times.

Please see the conference brochure for full details.


The future of US – UK trade relations

Tuesday 19 June 2018, 12.30-1.30pm

Chatham House, St James’s Square, London

Please book here

Speakers:

  • Rorden Wilkinson, Professor of Global Political Economy and Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Education and Innovation), University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
  • Pietra Rivoli, Vice-Dean and Professor in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University
  • Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO, University of Sussex
  • Emily Lydgate, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
  • Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Managing Director of Interanalysis; member of UKTPO

Chair:
Jim Rollo CMG, Emeritus Professor of European Economics, University of Sussex; Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview
Both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May have stated their keenness to negotiate and agree the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement after Brexit. With President Trump set to visit the UK next month and less than a year until the UK leaves the EU, this roundtable event focuses on what the key issues are likely to be and what a transatlantic agreement may, or may not, comprise. The panellists outline the general geopolitical landscape within which a UK – US trade agreement will be negotiated, including the WTO, discuss some potential issues that may infringe on a swift agreement and also offer insight on how these issues could be resolved. These include the compatibility of regulatory regimes, public support for free trade and economic interests.

Please book here


Integrating sustainable development objectives into UK trade policy

Wednesday 2 May 2018, 9 – 10am

Chatham House, St James’s Square, London

Please book here

Speakers:
Dr Emily Lydgate, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
Dr Rob Amos, Research Officer, University of Sussex

Discussant:
Dr Max Mendez-Parra, Senior Research Fellow, ODI

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview
As the UK contemplates ambitious new trade agreements, it needs to develop mechanisms to ensure that these uphold its commitment to environmental protection and high labour standards, and benefit all of the UK. As it has not managed external trade independently for many years, there are no existing procedures for scoping, negotiating and ratifying trade agreements. Proposed legislation does not fill the gaps, and questions remain about the governance of new trade agreements, as well as those ‘rolled over’ from the EU.

In this context, we will examine approaches to:

(1) integrating sustainable development objectives into the negotiating process; and

(2) reflecting these objectives through trade agreements.

We conclude that the UK’s ability to take leadership in this area will hinge on its ability to develop a robust framework to ensure that the negotiation process is transparent and allows for public consultation, and that the impact of new trade agreements – including on the environment and vulnerable populations – are assessed and addressed. In this respect, the UK can draw from, and improve upon, the EU’s experience with Sustainability Impact Assessment. We identify the potential significance of third-party trade agreements, most imminently with the US, in shaping UK domestic environmental and consumer protection.

Finally, we highlight implications of the UK’s inheritance of the EU’s ‘cooperative approach’ to trade and sustainable development through the continuation of its trade agreements.

Please book here


Can CETA-plus solve the UK’s services problem?

Thursday 22 March 2018, 12 noon to 1pm

10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y

Please book your place here

Speakers: Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex
Julia Magntorn, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant: Christophe Bondy, Special Counsel, Cooley LLP

Chair: Gemma Tetlow, Economics Correspondent for the Financial Times

Overview

In the search for a framework for a future UK-EU trade relationship, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) has come under the spotlight. To inform the debate surrounding a potential ‘Canada plus’ model for the UK post-Brexit, the UK Trade Policy Observatory’s latest Briefing Paper looks in detail at the services and investment liberalisation that the EU undertook in CETA.

We score the EU’s commitments in CETA according to their degree of liberalisation and aggregate the scores across a wide range of services sectors. This, in turn, allows a comparison between sectors and helps us to identify the sectors where the UK may want to seek ‘pluses’ in a UK-EU context. Further, we evaluate the extent to which the EU’s commitments in CETA improve on pre-existing regimes by comparing the degree of liberalisation in CETA with the EU’s prior commitments in the GATS. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the pluses that the UK may seek are likely to be achievable.

Please book your place here.


Which Manufacturing Sectors are most Vulnerable to Brexit?

Tuesday 6 February 2018, 1.30 – 2.30pm

Chatham House, St James’s Square, London

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Overview

Trade in manufactures constitutes 65% of the UK’s trade with the EU and nearly 50% of the UK’s exports of manufactures goes to the EU.

In this new Briefing Paper, we look at the possible effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing in much greater sectoral detail than has been done before. For 122 manufacturing sectors, we estimate the exposure of these sectors to different versions of Brexit. Our projections depend on whether we assume the UK leaves the Customs Union and the Single Market, and on whether the UK makes a free trade agreement with the EU and is able to carry over existing free trade agreements with non-EU countries.

In all cases, we find that introducing tariff and non-tariff barriers raises the prices that UK consumers and producers will face, and leads to reduced UK exports; but for some sectors, the increase in protection leads to higher UK output. The impact of Brexit is likely to be significantly different between high-tech and lower-tech sectors.

Speakers:
Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; member of UKTPO
Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex, member of UKTPO
Professor Alasdair Smith, Emeritus Professor of Economics, former Vice-Chancellor, University  of Sussex, member of the UKTPO

Discussant :
TBC

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Please register here


Brexit and Regional Services Exports: A Heat Map Approach 

Thursday 11 January 2018, 1.30-2.30pm

Chatham House, St James’s Square, London

Book your place here

Speaker
Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Fellow of the UKTPO

Discussants
Anastassia Beliakova, Head of Trade Policy, British Chambers of Commerce
Prof Philip McCann, Professor of Urban and Regional Economics, Sheffield University Management School

Chair
Adam Ward, Deputy Director, Chatham House

Overview
This event will focus on UK services exports, a relevant but neglected area in the Brexit debate.  In particular, the UK Trade Policy Observatory will go beyond trade at the national level and describe the rich pattern by which the main UK regions engage in exporting services.  The panel will discuss the main findings and will take questions from the audience.

UK regions differ in the kinds of services they are producing and to which destinations these services are exported.  In order to gauge the exposure to a potential deterioration of market access for services to the EU, we describe in detail the distribution of services exports across regions and sectors, covering both cross-border trade in services and services inputs embodied in manufacturing exports.  Importantly, we consider the extent to which services exports are directed towards EU markets at a regionally disaggregated level.  As such, the analysis conveys a sense how the impact of Brexit may be felt differently across UK regions.

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Certificates of Origin: how do UK firms declare origin?

Tuesday 16 January 2018, 09.00-10.30

10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London

Please book your place here

Speakers
Nick Jacob, PhD Candidate in Economics at the University of Sussex
Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex, Director of CARIS and InterAnalysis; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Discussants
Adam Marshall, Director General, British Chambers of Commerce
Anastasia Beliakova, Head of Trade Policy, British Chambers of Commerce

Chair
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; and Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Overview:
At this event, the UK Trade Policy Observatory and the British Chambers of Commerce will provide insight into the experience of firms declaring origin with the use of Certificates of Origin, how well they understand the system, and why they choose the options they do. The panel will then discuss the several different systems for declaring the origin of goods and possible options post-Brexit.

When the UK leaves the EU, proving the origin of a given good or product will be a far bigger issue for UK businesses exporting to the EU. Currently, EU customs procedures are minimal since, being a customs union, all goods produced in the EU or imports from third countries that have cleared customs are in “free circulation”, and need no further proof of where they originated. After Brexit, the UK and EU may sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). There may even be arrangements that allow EU components to be counted as being of UK origin for FTAs with non-EU countries. However, any preferential Rules of Origin arrangements will require the originating status of goods to be proven – meaning that many more business will need to learn to navigate this landscape.

Please book your place here


Grandfathering FTAs: What might appear bilateral is in fact trilateral 

Wednesday 29 November 2017, 5-6pm

Chatham House, London

 Book your place here

Speaker:
Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; member of UKTPO

Discussants:
Andrew Hood
, Senior Director  with Dechert LLP and a qualified barrister with extensive international and EU law expertise
Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex, Director of CARIS and InterAnalysis; member of UKTPO.

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview:
Michael Gasiorek will present the UKTPO’s latest briefing paper on grandfathering.  The EU currently has free trade agreements with over 60 countries. When the UK leaves the EU the UK will no longer be a party to these agreements yet they account for over 15% of total UK imports and exports.  The government’s position is that it intends to roll these agreements over (known as grandfathering) so that they continue to apply to the UK and so that existing producers and consumers are not negatively affected. The government has also indicated that the existing partner countries are willing to do this.  Dr Michael Gasiorek will outline why grandfathering is important, why it may be tricky to achieve, and why even if the agreements could be rolled-over there is likely to be an impact on UK, EU and free trade area producers and consumers. A key theme is that what might appear to be a bilateral issue of rolling over between the UK and an FTA partner, is, in fact, a trilateral issue which also includes the EU. Michael will explain why this is the case and make suggestions as to priorities which should be focused on and possible ways forward.

Andrew Hood will focus on addressing the legal issues of grandfathering

Peter Holmes will add to the conversation and comment on Michael and Andrew’s contributions.

Book your place here

Trade and Consumers after Brexit

Wednesday 8 November 2017, 1:30-2:30pm

Chatham House, London

 Book your place here

Speakers:

  • Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex, Director of CARIS and InterAnalysis; Fellow of UKTPO
  • Prof L Alan Winters CB, Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex,

Discussant: Sue Davies, Strategic Policy Adviser, Which?

Chair: Jim Rollo CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House, UK

Overview

L Alan Winters will discuss the cost of living consequences of Brexit based on RF/UKTPO paper, ‘Changing Lanes: The impact of different post-Brexit trading policies on the cost of living’ and a paper to be released in early  Nov in the NIER.

Peter Holmes will present the UKTPO’s latest briefing paper on the recent challenges facing consumers in world trade.

  • He will stress that the classic argument that trade benefits consumers overall remains true, but that distributional issues must also be recognised.
  • There may be instances in which the inefficient tool of import restrictions is used to address the adjustment impact of trade flows,  but when this is so, the costs of these to consumers must be transparently presented and taken into account.
  • At the same time, future trade policy must also be alert to possible constraints imposed by future trade or investment deals on using regulation to ensure consumer benefits through necessary regulation.

Sue Davies will share her thoughts on the papers and this will be followed by a question and answer session.

 Book your place here

Taking Services Seriously after Brexit

Tuesday, 26 September 2017 – 08:00-09:30

The Graduate Institute, Restaurant Maison de la Paix, Petal 5, 8th Floor, 2, Chèmin Eugène Rigot, Geneva 1201, Switzerland

Register here

 

The UK faces a complex re-design of trading arrangements after BREXIT. There has been much discussion but most has focussed on trade in goods, whereas the UK is primarily a service economy and services are critical to almost all economic activity. The panel of experts from the UK Trade Policy Observatory will lead a discussion of aspects of services trade after Brexit, including:

  • How the UK and EU might achieve deep integration in services after Brexit while respecting WTO rules.
  • Can there be progress in goods trade without progress in services?  Lessons from the EU single market for services.
  • Shallow vs deep integration — why shallow is deeper than is often supposed and how to manage the complementary policy areas in deep integration.
  • Data on services: what do we know about services and what would we need to know for making progress?

Speakers:

  • Richard BALDWIN, Professor International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva; President of CEPR; Associate Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • Ingo BORCHERT, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • Bernard HOEKMAN, Professor and Director, Global Economics at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • L Alan WINTERS, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Introduced and moderated by Theresa CARPENTER , Graduate Institute Geneva; Executive Director of the Graduate Institute’s Centre for Trade and Economic Integration; Associate Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
Book your place here

Global Wine Markets and Brexit

19 May 2017 – 16:00 – 17.30
Chatham House, London
Register via Eventbrite

Speaker

PROFESSOR KYM ANDERSON, George Gollin Professor of Economics, Executive Director of the Wine Economics Research Centre, University of Adelaide and Australian National University, Australia

Discussants

JANCIS ROBINSON,  writes weekly for the Financial Times and daily for JancisRobinson.com, the first Master of Wine from outside the wine trade.

TAMARA ROBERTS, Chief Executive Officer, Ridgeview Wine Estate

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House, UK

Wine represents over 40% of the share of UK alcohol consumption in the UK today. Brexit is of considerable significance to wine producers and consumers across the world, because Britain has always imported a major share of the world’s wine, especially in value terms. The UK accounts for more than one-sixth of the wine export earnings of seven key wine countries, and for three of them (Australia, the US and New Zealand) it buys more than one-third of their volume of wine exports.

To get a sense of how wine markets might be affected by Brexit, Professor Kym Anderson uses a model of the world’s wine markets to project those markets to 2025 then adjusts for possible Brexit effects. Professor Anderson, a world authority on the wine market, will present the resulting impacts on bilateral wine trade values and volumes for commercial and fine still wines as well as for sparkling wines at this event.

What are the priorities for Britain’s Trade Policy Post Brexit? Open discussion

5 April 2017 – 17:30 – 19:30
Brighthelm, North Road, Brighton, BN1 1YD
Register via Eventbrite

Speakers

PROFESSOR L. ALAN WINTERS, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of UKTPO

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO

Chair (TBC)

Members of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) at the University of Sussex will outline the key trade issues post-Brexit and provide economic and legal analysis of the UK’s trade relations post-Brexit. They will scope out a number of potential scenarios and the possible impact of each on the South East region.

The event will consist of short presentations from the panellists, a World Café session involving all attendees and a question and answer session. Refreshments will be served. The World Café session will provide participants with the opportunity to discuss the things they think are important, outline what trade issues they want to know more about, and what they think the government should do for trade in post-Brexit Britain.

Through these events UKTPO hopes to gather baseline data of stakeholder opinions and knowledge gaps. This data can help inform the focus of the Observatory’s future publication outputs, and our fellows can also feedback to policymakers, providing the opportunity for more inclusive trade policy-making.

 

Brexit and Government Procurement

28 March 2017 – 12:00 to 14:00
Chatham House, London

Speaker

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Discussant

PROFESSOR ALASDAIR SMITH, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Former Vice-Chancellor, University of Sussex

DR SWATI DHINGRA, Lecturer in Economics, LSE

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House

The sheer value of public procurement contracts make them important both economically and for providing society with essential public goods, services and infrastructure. Yet, Brexit could fragment government procurement policy within the UK, as well as disrupt the UK’s relationship with the WTO GPA and other preferential procurement agreements.

At this meeting, the speaker will look at some of the legal issues that will affect the UK’s public procurement laws and policies following Brexit. She will put forward a response to some of the potentially negative consequences of Brexit that could undermine value for money, transparency and competition within the UK’s lucrative markets for government procurement contracts. This will be followed by a discussion.

 

Would WTO rules allow the UK and EU to sign a sectoral trade deal?

22 Feb 2017 – 13:00 to 14:00
10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH

Speakers

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex and Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
DR FEDERICO ORTINO, Reader, King’s College London

When the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and the Single Market, could it still preserve some or most of the benefits of special access? In this event, we consider how WTO rules and practices will constrain and define any UK-EU agreement. While they rule out some solutions that may superficially appear politically convenient, like special market access solely for cars, they do not prohibit a deep and significant trade and cooperation agreement. While the parties may not be able to reach this agreement, they should not dress political failure up as legal impossibility.

Download a PDF of Dr Emily Lydgate’s presentation slides.

 

Services Trade and Brexit: What is at Stake?

22 Nov 2016 – 17:00 to 18:00
Chatham House, London

Speakers

DR INGO BORCHERT, Lecturer In Economics, University Of Sussex
JOHN COOKE, Chairman of the Liberalisation of Trade in Services Committee, ThecityUK
CHAIR: JIM ROLLO, Associate Fellow, International Economics Department, Chatham House

Brexit will have important repercussions for the UK’s economic ties with the EU in the realm of services markets. Services trade is economically significant for a number of reasons. Producer services such as finance, transportation or professional services are inputs into both the production and international exchange of goods, whereas trade in other services directly affects consumer welfare. This event provides an overview of prevailing services trade flows as well as trade policies. It will commence with a picture of current UK services trade across the various modes of supply. The revealed strengths of the UK in certain services sectors could inform negotiating priorities going forward. In terms of services trade policies, the event will discuss the different market access regimes at the multilateral level as well as through preferential agreements. The event will take the format of a presentation, followed by an open discussion.

 

UK-EU Trade Relations After Brexit: Too Many Red Lines?

15 Nov 2016 – 13:00 to 14:00
The Wolfson Room, 10 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH

Speakers

DR PETER HOLMES, Reader In Economics, University of Sussex, Director of Caris and Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
DR MICHAEL GASIOREK, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
CHAIR: Stephen Pickford, Associate Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House

There are complicated trade-offs between the different options for trading relations between the UK and the EU following the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The mooted options range from a customs union, free trade area, to MFN status. The four main apparently immovable constraints involve:

  • An end to the free movement of people between the EU and the UK;
  • British law not being subject to the ECJ;
  • Sovereignty over British trade policy and;
  • No compulsory UK contribution the EU budget.

The EU has not specified either defensive or offensive objectives after Brexit apart from the mantra that the UK cannot cherry pick the bits of the single market it prefers. This discussion will explore whether a hard Brexit leading to accepting WTO terms based on the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ principle is inevitable, and if there is any way the constraints can be relaxed.

 

The economic consequences of Brexit – what the experts say

28 October 2016
IZA World of Labor, Berlin

Professor L. Alan Winters took part in a panel discussion alongside Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch, Prof. Michael Burda, Prof. Daniel S. Hamermesh and moderated by Stephan Richter, publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Globalist.

Watch the video of the discussion: The economic consequences of Brexit – what the experts say

 

The Landscape of UK Trade Policy after Brexit

28 September 2016
Graduate Institute, Geneva, as part of the Centre for Trade and Economic Intergration (CTEI) speaker series

Speaker: L. Alan WINTERS Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Open Discussion with:

  • Emily LYDGATE Lecturer in Environmental Law at the University of Sussex, Moderator: Richard BALDWIN, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute Geneva and president of CEPR
  • Patrick LOW Former Chief of Staff and Chief Economist of WTO, Senior Visiting Fellow at Sussex University;
  • Michael GASIOREK Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex, Director of InterAnalysis Trade
  • Theresa CARPENTER Executive Director Centre for Trade and Economic Integration;
  • Lorand BARTELS Reader in International Law, University of Cambridge
  • Overview – The UK faces complex and potentially radical choices on trade policy after BREXIT. These include:
  • How should it reset its position in the WTO?
  • Should it stay in the EU customs union?
  • If the UK leaves the customs union in order to take control of its own trade policy:
    • What relationship should it have with the EU 27 beyond MFN or a simple FTA?
      Should it try to stay in some or all of the single market and can it do that without conceding free movement of labour?
    • What should it do about the trade agreements/ relationships that it has as result of membership of the EU covering both bilateral and regional FTA as well as under the EU GSP provisions?
    • How should it prioritise potential partners in new FTA?
      Can it do all this in the two years that Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union allows?

Download a video or PDF of the presentation made by Dr Emily Lydgate and Professor L. Alan Winters on The Landscape of UK Trade Policy after Brexit.

 

Reconstructing Britain’s Trade Policy After Brexit

21 Jul 2016 – 18:00 to 19:00
Chatham House London, UK

Participants

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law, School of Law, University of Sussex
DR PATRICK LOW, Visiting Professor, University of Sussex; Chief Economist, WTO (1997-2013)
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
PROF L. ALAN WINTERS, CB, Director UK Trade Observatory, University of Sussex
CHAIR: DR PAOLA SUBACCHI, Research Director, International Economics, Chatham House

Overview

Following the decision to leave the EU, Britain will have to reconfigure its trade policy, successfully navigating a path through a new international trade landscape.

This event, which will launch the UK Trade Policy Observatory initiative, will analyse the WTO-related issues raised by the UK taking up its new status as an individual member without the responsibilities of an EU member. Such a transition is seen by many as an automatic step, as currently the UK is a member in its own right as well through the EU. The panel will seek to explore whether or not that assumption of an automatic transition is problematic.

Watch the video or listen to the audio recording of Reconstructing Britain’s Trade Policy After Brexit