Grandfathering FTAs: What might appear bilateral is in fact trilateral 

Wednesday 29 November 2017, 5-6pm

Chatham House, London

 Book your place here

Speaker:
Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; member of UKTPO

Discussants:
Andrew Hood
, Senior Director  with Dechert LLP and a qualified barrister with extensive international and EU law expertise
Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex, Director of CARIS and InterAnalysis; member of UKTPO.

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview:
Michael Gasiorek will present the UKTPO’s latest briefing paper on grandfathering.  The EU currently has free trade agreements with over 60 countries. When the UK leaves the EU the UK will no longer be a party to these agreements yet they account for over 15% of total UK imports and exports.  The government’s position is that it intends to  roll these agreements over (known as grandfathering) so that they continue to apply to the UK and so that existing producers and consumers are not negatively affected. The government has also indicated that the existing partner countries are willing to do this.  Dr Michael Gasiorek will outline why grandfathering is important, why it may be tricky to achieve, and why even if the agreements could be rolled-over there is likely to be an impact on UK, EU and free trade area producers and consumers. A key theme is that what might appear to be a bilateral issue of rolling over between the UK and an FTA partner, is in fact a trilateral issue which also includes the EU. Michael will explain why this is the case and make suggestions as to priorities which should be focused on and possible ways forward.

Andrew Hood will focus on addressing the legal issues of grandfathering

Peter Holmes will add to the conversation and comment on Michael and Andrew’s contributions.

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Trade and Consumers after Brexit

Wednesday 8 November 2017, 1:30-2:30pm

Chatham House, London

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Speakers:

  • Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex, Director of CARIS and InterAnalysis; Fellow of UKTPO
  • Prof L Alan Winters CB, Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex,

Discussant: Sue Davies, Strategic Policy Adviser, Which?

Chair: Jim Rollo CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House, UK

Overview

L Alan Winters will discuss the cost of living consequences of Brexit based on RF/UKTPO paper, ‘Changing Lanes: The impact of different post-Brexit trading policies on the cost of living’ and a paper to be released in early  Nov in the NIER.

Peter Holmes will present the UKTPO’s latest briefing paper on the recent challenges facing consumers in world trade.

  • He will stress that the classic argument that trade benefits consumers overall remains true, but that distributional issues must also be recognised.
  • There may be instances in which the inefficient tool of import restrictions is used to address the adjustment impact of trade flows,  but when this is so, the costs of these to consumers must be transparently presented and taken into account.
  • At the same time, future trade policy must also be alert to possible constraints imposed by future trade or investment deals on using regulation to ensure consumer benefits through necessary regulation.

Sue Davies will share her thoughts on the papers and this will be followed by a question and answer session.

 Book your place here

 

Taking Services Seriously after Brexit

Tuesday, 26 September 2017 – 08:00-09:30

The Graduate Institute, Restaurant Maison de la Paix, Petal 5, 8th Floor, 2, Chèmin Eugène Rigot, Geneva 1201, Switzerland

Register here

 

The UK faces a complex re-design of trading arrangements after BREXIT. There has been much discussion but most has focussed on trade in goods, whereas the UK is primarily a service economy and services are critical to almost all economic activity. The panel of experts from the UK Trade Policy Observatory will lead a discussion of aspects of services trade after Brexit, including:

  • How the UK and EU might achieve deep integration in services after Brexit while respecting WTO rules.
  • Can there be progress in goods trade without progress in services?  Lessons from the EU single market for services.
  • Shallow vs deep integration — why shallow is deeper than is often supposed and how to manage the complementary policy areas in deep integration.
  • Data on services: what do we know about services and what would we need to know for making progress?

Speakers:

  • Richard BALDWIN, Professor International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva; President of CEPR; Associate Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • Ingo BORCHERT, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • Bernard HOEKMAN, Professor and Director, Global Economics at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • L Alan WINTERS, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Introduced and moderated by Theresa CARPENTER , Graduate Institute Geneva; Executive Director of the Graduate Institute’s Centre for Trade and Economic Integration; Associate Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
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Global Wine Markets and Brexit

19 May 2017 – 16:00 – 17.30
Chatham House, London
Register via Eventbrite

Speaker

PROFESSOR KYM ANDERSON, George Gollin Professor of Economics, Executive Director of the Wine Economics Research Centre, University of Adelaide and Australian National University, Australia

Discussants

JANCIS ROBINSON,  writes weekly for the Financial Times and daily for JancisRobinson.com, the first Master of Wine from outside the wine trade.

TAMARA ROBERTS, Chief Executive Officer, Ridgeview Wine Estate

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House, UK

Wine represents over 40% of the share of UK alcohol consumption in the UK today. Brexit is of considerable significance to wine producers and consumers across the world, because Britain has always imported a major share of the world’s wine, especially in value terms. The UK accounts for more than one-sixth of the wine export earnings of seven key wine countries, and for three of them (Australia, the US and New Zealand) it buys more than one-third of their volume of wine exports.

To get a sense of how wine markets might be affected by Brexit, Professor Kym Anderson uses a model of the world’s wine markets to project those markets to 2025 then adjusts for possible Brexit effects. Professor Anderson, a world authority on the wine market, will present the resulting impacts on bilateral wine trade values and volumes for commercial and fine still wines as well as for sparkling wines at this event.

What are the priorities for Britain’s Trade Policy Post Brexit? Open discussion

5 April 2017 – 17:30 – 19:30
Brighthelm, North Road, Brighton, BN1 1YD
Register via Eventbrite

Speakers

PROFESSOR L. ALAN WINTERS, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of UKTPO

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO

Chair (TBC)

Members of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) at the University of Sussex will outline the key trade issues post-Brexit and provide economic and legal analysis of the UK’s trade relations post-Brexit. They will scope out a number of potential scenarios and the possible impact of each on the South East region.

The event will consist of short presentations from the panellists, a World Café session involving all attendees and a question and answer session. Refreshments will be served. The World Café session will provide participants with the opportunity to discuss the things they think are important, outline what trade issues they want to know more about, and what they think the government should do for trade in post-Brexit Britain.

Through these events UKTPO hopes to gather baseline data of stakeholder opinions and knowledge gaps. This data can help inform the focus of the Observatory’s future publication outputs, and our fellows can also feedback to policymakers, providing the opportunity for more inclusive trade policy-making.

 

Brexit and Government Procurement

28 March 2017 – 12:00 to 14:00
Chatham House, London

Speaker

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Discussant

PROFESSOR ALASDAIR SMITH, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Former Vice-Chancellor, University of Sussex

DR SWATI DHINGRA, Lecturer in Economics, LSE

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House

The sheer value of public procurement contracts make them important both economically and for providing society with essential public goods, services and infrastructure. Yet, Brexit could fragment government procurement policy within the UK, as well as disrupt the UK’s relationship with the WTO GPA and other preferential procurement agreements.

At this meeting, the speaker will look at some of the legal issues that will affect the UK’s public procurement laws and policies following Brexit. She will put forward a response to some of the potentially negative consequences of Brexit that could undermine value for money, transparency and competition within the UK’s lucrative markets for government procurement contracts. This will be followed by a discussion.

 

Would WTO rules allow the UK and EU to sign a sectoral trade deal?

22 Feb 2017 – 13:00 to 14:00
10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH

Speakers

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex and Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
DR FEDERICO ORTINO, Reader, King’s College London

When the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and the Single Market, could it still preserve some or most of the benefits of special access? In this event, we consider how WTO rules and practices will constrain and define any UK-EU agreement. While they rule out some solutions that may superficially appear politically convenient, like special market access solely for cars, they do not prohibit a deep and significant trade and cooperation agreement. While the parties may not be able to reach this agreement, they should not dress political failure up as legal impossibility.

Download a PDF of Dr Emily Lydgate’s presentation slides.

 

Services Trade and Brexit: What is at Stake?

22 Nov 2016 – 17:00 to 18:00
Chatham House, London

Speakers

DR INGO BORCHERT, Lecturer In Economics, University Of Sussex
JOHN COOKE, Chairman of the Liberalisation of Trade in Services Committee, ThecityUK
CHAIR: JIM ROLLO, Associate Fellow, International Economics Department, Chatham House

Brexit will have important repercussions for the UK’s economic ties with the EU in the realm of services markets. Services trade is economically significant for a number of reasons. Producer services such as finance, transportation or professional services are inputs into both the production and international exchange of goods, whereas trade in other services directly affects consumer welfare. This event provides an overview of prevailing services trade flows as well as trade policies. It will commence with a picture of current UK services trade across the various modes of supply. The revealed strengths of the UK in certain services sectors could inform negotiating priorities going forward. In terms of services trade policies, the event will discuss the different market access regimes at the multilateral level as well as through preferential agreements. The event will take the format of a presentation, followed by an open discussion.

 

UK-EU Trade Relations After Brexit: Too Many Red Lines?

15 Nov 2016 – 13:00 to 14:00
The Wolfson Room, 10 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH

Speakers

DR PETER HOLMES, Reader In Economics, University of Sussex, Director of Caris and Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
DR MICHAEL GASIOREK, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
CHAIR: Stephen Pickford, Associate Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House

There are complicated trade-offs between the different options for trading relations between the UK and the EU following the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The mooted options range from a customs union, free trade area, to MFN status. The four main apparently immovable constraints involve:

  • An end to the free movement of people between the EU and the UK;
  • British law not being subject to the ECJ;
  • Sovereignty over British trade policy and;
  • No compulsory UK contribution the EU budget.

The EU has not specified either defensive or offensive objectives after Brexit apart from the mantra that the UK cannot cherry pick the bits of the single market it prefers. This discussion will explore whether a hard Brexit leading to accepting WTO terms based on the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ principle is inevitable, and if there is any way the constraints can be relaxed.

 

The economic consequences of Brexit – what the experts say

28 October 2016
IZA World of Labor, Berlin

Professor L. Alan Winters took part in a panel discussion alongside Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch, Prof. Michael Burda, Prof. Daniel S. Hamermesh and moderated by Stephan Richter, publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Globalist.

Watch the video of the discussion: The economic consequences of Brexit – what the experts say

 

The Landscape of UK Trade Policy after Brexit

28 September 2016
Graduate Institute, Geneva, as part of the Centre for Trade and Economic Intergration (CTEI) speaker series

Speaker: L. Alan WINTERS Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Open Discussion with:

  • Emily LYDGATE Lecturer in Environmental Law at the University of Sussex, Moderator: Richard BALDWIN, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute Geneva and president of CEPR
  • Patrick LOW Former Chief of Staff and Chief Economist of WTO, Senior Visiting Fellow at Sussex University;
  • Michael GASIOREK Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex, Director of InterAnalysis Trade
  • Theresa CARPENTER Executive Director Centre for Trade and Economic Integration;
  • Lorand BARTELS Reader in International Law, University of Cambridge
  • Overview – The UK faces complex and potentially radical choices on trade policy after BREXIT. These include:
  • How should it reset its position in the WTO?
  • Should it stay in the EU customs union?
  • If the UK leaves the customs union in order to take control of its own trade policy:
    • What relationship should it have with the EU 27 beyond MFN or a simple FTA?
      Should it try to stay in some or all of the single market and can it do that without conceding free movement of labour?
    • What should it do about the trade agreements/ relationships that it has as result of membership of the EU covering both bilateral and regional FTA as well as under the EU GSP provisions?
    • How should it prioritise potential partners in new FTA?
      Can it do all this in the two years that Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union allows?

Download a video or PDF of the presentation made by Dr Emily Lydgate and Professor L. Alan Winters on The Landscape of UK Trade Policy after Brexit.

 

Reconstructing Britain’s Trade Policy After Brexit

21 Jul 2016 – 18:00 to 19:00
Chatham House London, UK

Participants

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law, School of Law, University of Sussex
DR PATRICK LOW, Visiting Professor, University of Sussex; Chief Economist, WTO (1997-2013)
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
PROF L. ALAN WINTERS, CB, Director UK Trade Observatory, University of Sussex
CHAIR: DR PAOLA SUBACCHI, Research Director, International Economics, Chatham House

Overview

Following the decision to leave the EU, Britain will have to reconfigure its trade policy, successfully navigating a path through a new international trade landscape.

This event, which will launch the UK Trade Policy Observatory initiative, will analyse the WTO-related issues raised by the UK taking up its new status as an individual member without the responsibilities of an EU member. Such a transition is seen by many as an automatic step, as currently the UK is a member in its own right as well through the EU. The panel will seek to explore whether or not that assumption of an automatic transition is problematic.

Watch the video or listen to the audio recording of Reconstructing Britain’s Trade Policy After Brexit