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On 22 February 2017, UKTPO, CBI and the TUC held an event in Newcastle that brought together employees and employers to discuss the important regional issues for post-Brexit trade. This guest blog by Sarah Glendinning, Regional Director for the North East, CBI; and Beth Farhat, Regional Secretary, Northern TUC draws on this discussion.

Now that Brexit negotiations are officially underway it’s important to consider what kind of deal workers and businesses want from negotiations, and what kind of deal will enable all parts of the country to develop and prosper after we leave the EU.

As representatives of working people and businesses from across the North East, we are seeking a Brexit deal that ensures stability and delivers decent jobs, fair pay and growth for the region. (more…)

April 26th, 2017

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Image of Alan Winters

19 April 2017

L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO.

In this blog, Professor Winters responds to Patrick Minford and Edgar Miller’s recent paper on unilateral free trade in relation to Brexit.

Economists for Free Trade’s Patrick Minford recently suggested that the UK should

simply eliminate our tariffs on them [the EU], and by implication – under WTO rules – on everyone else. By doing so, we would achieve free trade for our consumers with one quick move [and increase consumer welfare by 4%] Minford (2017).

This, he explains in a fuller exposition, is achievable ‘via Unilateral Free Trade’ – see page 8 of Minford and Miller (2017), henceforth referred to as M&M.

But this claim is misleading or worse:

  • It is based on a very particular view of the world economy,
  • Even in M&M’s own analysis, the benefits of 4% of welfare (or GDP) depend on far more than ‘simply eliminating tariffs’; they also require deeper integration with the EU and a race to the bottom on standards;
  • M&M assume that the devaluation of sterling will have no effect on the prices of UK imports!

(more…)

April 19th, 2017

Posted In: UK- EU

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17 January 2017

Dr Peter Holmes (Reader in Economics and member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex), reacts to Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on negotiating objectives for exiting the EU.

The speech essentially confirms what we knew already, that sticking to the government’s red lines on the European Court of Justice and free movement would make joining the European Economic Area impossible and so we must leave the single market. (more…)

January 17th, 2017

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L. Alan Winters7 November 2016

L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO.

The ideal trading partner is rich, large, similar and next door. For the UK this means the EU, and for the UK government, this means trade negotiations with our European neighbours must take priority.

In my recent article for the NIESR November Review, I explore the reasons why negotiating the UK’s future trade arrangements is a massive job. These are the main points I raise. (more…)

November 7th, 2016

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22 August 2016Emily Lydgate

Dr Emily Lydgate is a Lecturer in Law in the School of Law, Politics and Sociology at the University of Sussex, and is a member of UKTPO

According to government sources at the weekend, the UK probably won’t trigger Article 50 until late 2017. At this point, it is crucial the EU and UK begin negotiating their new trade agreement. Delaying until after Brexit and relying on WTO rules in the meantime would cost the UK billions – in the best case scenario.

The worst case would see trade conflicts erupting and negotiations with the rest of the world in indefinite limbo. (more…)

August 22nd, 2016

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29 July 2016Peter Holmes Jim Rollo L. Alan Winters

Professor L. Alan Winters, Professor Jim Rollo and Dr Peter Holmes are all members of UKTPO

Liam Fox MP, the President of the Board of Trade, is reported as saying that the UK should leave the EU Customs Union so as to give it the freedom to negotiate Free Trade Areas (FTAs) with other countries.

This would be an unexceptionable step after full Brexit but a provocative, and very probably costly, one before Brexit. (more…)

July 29th, 2016

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