{"id":810,"date":"2018-05-08T09:38:30","date_gmt":"2018-05-08T08:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scscsussex.wordpress.com\/?p=810"},"modified":"2021-10-05T09:16:54","modified_gmt":"2021-10-05T08:16:54","slug":"the-way-to-hell-is-paved-with-good-intentions-what-footballs-var-can-learn-from-an-anti-corruption-programme-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/2018\/05\/08\/the-way-to-hell-is-paved-with-good-intentions-what-footballs-var-can-learn-from-an-anti-corruption-programme-in-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"The way to hell is paved with good intentions: What football\u2019s VAR can learn from an anti-corruption programme in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cFootball is not a matter of life or death\u201d claimed Bill Shankly, an iconic former manager of Liverpool football club, \u201cit\u2019s far more important than that\u201d. Shankly, ever able to come up with a memorable line, was certainly over-egging that particular pudding, but the importance of football to billions of people around the planet shouldn\u2019t be ignored.<\/p>\n<p>Football is also, of course, a multi-billion dollar business. There is serious money to be made both within the game (i.e. the salaries that top players earn) and from without it (i.e. via advertising contracts, sponsoring opportunities and such like).\u00a0 It\u2019s with that in mind that FIFA, the governing body of world football, is trying to take steps to make sure that the decisions the officials on the field take are correct.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Helping referees out<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Being a football referee is not easy.\u00a0 The game is faster now than it ever was.\u00a0 Referees are required to be real physical athletes just to keep up with the flow of play.\u00a0 Throw in the fact that when the stakes are so high players are often more than willing to try and game officials and it becomes clear that a referee\u2019s lot is not a straightforward one.<\/p>\n<p>Those who oversee world football have subsequently made concerted efforts over the years to help referees out. Two referees\u2019 assistants have run up and down the sidelines since as early as 1891, whilst exactly 100 years later a fourth official was introduced on the sidelines to further assistant the man\/woman in the middle. Furthermore, in 2009 two more officials were added at either end of the field for high profile international fixtures. Refereeing is clearly now a team game, too.<\/p>\n<p>On top of the human additions, goal-line technology now tells referees when the ball has crossed the goal-line. Indeed, that has become the norm in high profile competitions like the Premier League. Furthermore, its use is now widely accepted.\u00a0 It was not always thus.<\/p>\n<p>The use of technology to help referees out has not stopped there.\u00a0 In 2018 the notion of a Video Assistant Referee (VAR) was written in to the laws of the game. \u00a0In essence, the system is simple. Video technology can be used to assess whether errors have been made in four areas; in the run up to a goal being scored, in penalty decisions, in decisions that lead to straight red cards and to cases of mistaken identity (i.e. when red or yellow cars have been awarded incorrectly). If it becomes clear that the referee has made a mistake, the decision will be overturned.<\/p>\n<p>The referee can ask the team of officials operating VAR to look at decisions he\/she has made or officials can unilaterally choose to check decisions. Either way, the aim is to help stamp out really bad refereeing calls.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The proof of the pudding <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In many ways the logic behind VAR is impeccable.\u00a0 Who can\u2019t want to see correct decisions being made? But, the devil lies in the detail and football\u2019s technology buffs could do worse than look at the world of anti-corruption to see why the theory doesn\u2019t always match the practice.<\/p>\n<p>As in football, no one wants to see more corruption.\u00a0 No one argues that corruption (read \u2018bad referring decisions\u2019) is to be encouraged. But anti-corruption scholars and activists have long since learnt that whilst using technology to fight corruption can work (see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sussex.ac.uk\/webteam\/gateway\/file.php?name=scsc-working-paper-no-1.pdf&amp;site=405\">this<\/a> great example where potential corruption cases in aid projects can be tracked, for example) it can never provide all the answers.<\/p>\n<p>One such example comes from Brazil. A computer programme called <a href=\"http:\/\/english.i9magazine.pt\/rosie-robot-detects-corruption-recovered-100000-euros\/\">Rosie<\/a> has been developed to keep an eye on the expenses\u2019 claims that Brazilian parliamentarians make.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Well, Brazilian MPs have a history of buffing up their expenses so as to make a little extra money on the side.\u00a0 Rosie doesn\u2019t just look at how many Reals have been claimed, she looks at what they have been claimed for and whether that claim is out of line with what should broadly have been expected.\u00a0 If a given claim looks anomalous, Rosie alerts real people so that they can investigate further.<\/p>\n<p>More specifically, Rosie is looking to pinpoint cases where Brazilian law-makers spend more than the R$ 46.000 (US$ 14,700) that they are allowed. They can spend this on various expenditures that are necessary to do their jobs; meals, flight tickets, fuel and such like. As this nice explainer <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/data-science-brigade\/brazilian-group-develops-an-ai-to-help-in-public-expenditures-monitoring-757900c99552\">notes<\/a>, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies used to get around 20,000 individual claims a month and before Rosie was invented each of those had to be processed manually; a system wide open to error and, in the worst cases, corruption.<\/p>\n<p>In theory, Rosie is doing work that humans can\u2019t.\u00a0 She\u2019s keeping an overview of many thousands of transactions and highlighting cases that the human eye might well miss.\u00a0 Yet, ultimately, Rosie is simply not capable of passing qualified judgement.\u00a0 A out-of-since claim may indeed be evidence of corruption and Rosie\u2019s advocates have been quick to point those out.\u00a0 Or the claim may simply be left-field but defensible. Rosie can\u2019t know that.\u00a0 Furthermore, parliamentarians have quickly got to know the new rules of the game and they can and do change their behaviour accordingly.\u00a0 Maybe they change the nature of the expenses claims that they make or, more probably, they simply find other ways to make that extra buck.<\/p>\n<p><u>Learning from Rosie<\/u><\/p>\n<p>What does all this have to do with VAR? Rosie is ultimately trying to make an exact science out of a fundamentally subjective process.\u00a0 VAR is doing exactly the same.\u00a0 Rosie is good at highlighting outlandish claims, VAR should be able to pick up outlandish refereeing faux pas. Rosie can and does make a contribution to nailing down spurious expenses claims.\u00a0 VAR, in theory, should be able to do the same in terms of helping referees get decisions right.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, the more one looks the more one realises that whilst Rosie has a role to play, the more one wonders whether the same really can be said for VAR.\u00a0 For one thing, whilst there is a level of subjectivity that Rosie struggles with, this is multiplied significantly in the case of football. Pundits spend hours contemplating whether a particular decision to give a penalty, for example, was indeed right.\u00a0 There is anything but a consensus on exactly when a player \u2018dives\u2019 or when he\/she simply loses his balance.\u00a0 There is a list of potentially contentious points where Rosie struggles, but that list in the case of refereeing decisions in football is much, much longer.<\/p>\n<p>Narrower though Rosie\u2019s remit is, she experiences precisely the same problem. She can see things.\u00a0 But she can\u2019t pass definitive judgement on them.\u00a0 Indeed, the people who then come to Rosie\u2019s aid also find some cases quite hard to make calls on, too. Goal-line technology, on the other hand, works precisely because there is a definitive answer out there.\u00a0 Technology can indeed tell us whether the ball is over the line, just as the DRS in cricket can tell us (more or less every time) whether a batter has been run out.\u00a0 In cases where there is doubt in cricket, there is a widely-accepted (and long-standing) plan B; the decision of the on field referee (or \u2018umpire\u2019) stands.\u00a0 End of story.<\/p>\n<p><u>The Way to Hell<\/u><\/p>\n<p>FIFA\u2019s decision to use VAR in the forthcoming World Cup is therefore a case of the way to hell being well and truly paved with good intentions. Much as we might want to believe otherwise, the types of decision that get referred to VAR do not have clear-cut answers.<\/p>\n<p>There is, of course, an irony to this. Players make mistakes all the time.\u00a0 They give the ball away, they mis-time tackles, they drift out of position, they take shots that end up nowhere near the goal.\u00a0 Indeed, the imperfection of the game is, for many, one of its most endearing features.<\/p>\n<p>Putting it more bluntly, football is simply not mature enough for us to expect VAR to work. Too many people within the sport are out and out utility maximisers who really aren\u2019t interested in treating officials (and indeed the game) with the respect it deserves.<\/p>\n<p>Given all of this, expect VAR to provide yet more controversy in the summer.\u00a0 Buckle up football fans, it\u2019s going to be a bumpy ride.<\/p>\n<p>Dan Hough<\/p>\n<p>8 May 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cFootball is not a matter of life or death\u201d claimed Bill Shankly, an iconic former manager of Liverpool football club, \u201cit\u2019s far more important than that\u201d. Shankly, ever able to come up with a memorable line, was certainly over-egging that<span class=\"ellipsis\">&hellip;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/2018\/05\/08\/the-way-to-hell-is-paved-with-good-intentions-what-footballs-var-can-learn-from-an-anti-corruption-programme-in-brazil\/\">Read more &#8250;<\/a><\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":359,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[203154],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/359"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=810"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1584,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810\/revisions\/1584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/centre-for-the-study-of-corruption\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}