{"id":1083,"date":"2015-10-14T10:38:37","date_gmt":"2015-10-14T10:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/?p=1083"},"modified":"2015-10-14T10:41:59","modified_gmt":"2015-10-14T10:41:59","slug":"uks-muddled-nuclear-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2015\/10\/14\/uks-muddled-nuclear-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"All at sea: making sense of the UK’s muddled nuclear policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new ‘The Conversation’ post by Phil Johnston and Andy Stirling<\/h1>\n

Philip Johnstone<\/a>, University of Sussex<\/a><\/em> and Andy Stirling<\/a>, University of Sussex<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, has recently been waving huge wads of cash at different (but similarly delinquent) parts of UK nuclear policy. In August, he sailed triumphantly up the Clyde to the Trident-hosting Faslane Naval base to announce \u00a3500m of investment<\/a>. This was a move many considered to be jumping the gun, or even \u201carrogant\u201d<\/a> given that no final decision has been made on its renewal.<\/p>\n

A few weeks later, on his tour of China, Osborne was announcing an astonishing \u00a32 billion loan guarantee<\/a> to city investors if the developers of the Hinkley C reactor<\/a> go bust. And this is additional to a guaranteed strike price of \u00a392.50 per megawatt hour<\/a> for 35 years (roughly double the current price of electricity \u2013 and significantly more than the current strike price for several renewables<\/a>). As Simon Jenkins writes<\/a> in relation to the chancellor\u2019s recent announcements: \u201cYou can accuse George Osborne of many things, but austerity isn\u2019t one of them\u201d.<\/p>\n

No laughing matter<\/h2>\n

It has got to the point with Hinkley C where one must wonder how Osborne, the secretary of state for Energy and Climate Change, Amber Rudd and the chief executive of EDF, Vincent de Rivaz, manage to keep straight faces while repeating what a good deal the project will be for everybody. The French state-owned energy firm EDF is due to partner with the Chinese under the deal announced by Osborne<\/a> in Beijing, and Rivaz\u2019s boss, Jean-Bernard Levy, has admitted that the Chinese state is the only investor that can be persuaded that the project is viable<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Even this is only possible, with still-secret commitments that the Chinese can then build their own further nuclear power stations in the UK<\/a>. Indeed, there is now virtually no commentator in the British media<\/a>, or elsewhere, who seriously considers the Hinkley C project to be a sensible idea. As the most expensive nuclear power station ever built<\/a>, left and right are united in recognising it as one of the worst infrastructure project decisions in British history<\/a>. Experts formerly claiming nuclear to be a \u201cnecessity\u201d<\/a> now seem to have realised<\/a> that other low-carbon pathways are not only possible, but manifestly more attractive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Off the grid. Power games.<\/span>
\nNayu Kim<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

British journalists who were noisily insisting people were wrong<\/a> to protest against Hinkley C are now themselves equally vociferously arguing<\/a> against the power station. As support for renewables are cut and commitments to Hinkley remain, international observers look on in wonder at UK energy policy<\/a> \u2013 but for all the wrong reasons.<\/p>\n

It seems a sorry end for the unusual partisan attachment<\/a> that the UK government has shown for new nuclear since 2008. With all the efforts of orchestrated pro-nuclear advocacy<\/a> \u2013 lambasting anyone<\/a> daring to depart from complete ideological commitment to new nuclear \u2013 it might be expected that nuclear plans would be looking more secure. But the main aims now seem to be blame management<\/a> and saving face<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Route map<\/h2>\n

Never plausible to anyone recalling past episodes of nuclear enthusiasm, the latest bout of zeal for a \u201cnuclear renaissance” has now lost all credibility. With global investments in renewable electricity two years ago overtaking those in all fossil fuel generation put together<\/a>, the direction of change is clear. Numerous<\/a> international assessments<\/a> show renewables are already price-competitive even with optimistic costings for new nuclear.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Panel beaters. Renewables are outpacing nuclear.<\/span>
\nBELECTRIC UK<\/a>, CC BY-SA<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Despite better nuclear engineering and a worse renewable resource, developments in Germany reinforce the picture<\/a>. Even in the UK, where official analysis tends to remain eccentrically romantic about nuclear<\/a>, the picture has long been clear for anyone with an open mind. As early as 2003<\/a> the most detailed energy white paper for decades found nuclear power \u201cunattractive\u201d \u2013 before being overturned by a cursory revision<\/a> that was itself rejected by judicial review for being too superficial<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Specialist analyses<\/a> for the UK government \u2013 of kinds that the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has resisted making public<\/a> \u2013 repeatedly find many renewables to offer better value than new nuclear. This is borne out in the government\u2019s own data for electricity contracts<\/a>. And, for any project with such a long lifetime, perhaps even more damning is that renewable costs keep dropping<\/a>, while nuclear costs keep rising<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So it is an understatement to say it is odd that DECC is cutting support for onshore wind, solar power<\/a> and ending support for home energy efficiency<\/a> \u2013 while unswervingly staying committed to extortionate new nuclear power. Former minister for energy, Ed Davey, puts it bluntly:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Twitter<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

For Davey, the only explanation can be one of partisan commitment by Osborne \u2013 because \u201che just wanted a nuclear power plant\u201d<\/a>. It is sure that Osborne is no environmentalist<\/a>. With so much nuclear work contracted abroad and UK employment allowed to haemorrhage in other sectors \u2013 for instance in steel<\/a> and solar power<\/a> \u2013 it doesn\u2019t seem Osborne is motivated by jobs.<\/p>\n

Attracting Chinese infrastructure investment may play a role, but the realities make it clear there are many more economically promising alternatives than nuclear. And encouraging Chinese involvement in a technology with such grave national security implications<\/a> further compounds the oddity. George Osborne\u2019s nuclear obsession really does require some kind of explanation.<\/p>\n

\u2018Deep state\u2019<\/h2>\n

As we have explored elsewhere<\/a>, perhaps the best clue lies in Osborne\u2019s trip up the Clyde to Faslane; maybe the real commitment here is to maintaining Britain\u2019s nuclear arsenal. Amid the clamour of the recent China visit, it was also announced that a big slice of Hinkley contracts would go to Rolls Royce<\/a> \u2013 the makers of Britain\u2019s nuclear submarine reactors.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

HMS Vigilant returns to port.<\/span>
\nDefence Images<\/a>, CC BY-NC<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The calculation seems to be, that trickle-down from foreign power reactor manufacturers may be just enough to sustain a national industrial capability sufficient to continue the nuclear-armed status that current debates remind is so emotively cherished both by Tories<\/a> and at the top of Labour<\/a>. There are tantalising signs<\/a> that this lay behind the strange reversal in nuclear white papers mentioned above. If this is not at the bottom of Osborne\u2019s mind, it is difficult to know what is.<\/p>\n

If so, the implications for the health of UK politics are extremely serious. The Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party is raising these issues anew<\/a>. All sides are limbering up for the coming argument over Trident. But if the above analysis is true, then massive financial pre-commitments are being made (and some already firmly in place<\/a>) on an unprecedented scale, that risk effectively locking in a decision before the process of making it has ostensibly begun.<\/p>\n

With mainstream press reports of senior British Army figures mooting mutiny under a Corbyn government<\/a>, this carries more than a whiff of something akin to an unaccountable British \u201cdeep state\u201d<\/a>. For anyone who cares about democracy<\/a> \u2013 whatever their views on nuclear power or nuclear weapons \u2013 now is the moment to ask some searching questions about what nuclear policy is doing to British politics. And there seems no-one better to ask than Osborne.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

Philip Johnstone<\/a>, Research Fellow, SPRU, University of Sussex<\/a><\/em> and Andy Stirling<\/a>, Professor of Science & Technology Policy, SPRU and co-director of the ESRC STEPS Centre, University of Sussex<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\nFollow Sussex Energy Group \"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"linkedin\"<\/a><\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new ‘The Conversation’ post by Phil Johnston and Andy Stirling Philip Johnstone, University of Sussex and Andy Stirling, University of Sussex The chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, has recently been waving huge wads of cash at different (but…<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more ›<\/a><\/div>\n

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