{"id":1291,"date":"2016-03-15T12:59:53","date_gmt":"2016-03-15T12:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/?p=1291"},"modified":"2016-03-17T11:28:32","modified_gmt":"2016-03-17T11:28:32","slug":"1291","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/03\/15\/1291\/","title":{"rendered":"Why South Africa is finding it difficult to wean itself off coal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/lucy-baker-171974\">Lucy Baker<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-sussex\">University of Sussex<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-burton-236506\">Jesse Burton<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-cape-town\">University of Cape Town<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>South Africa has made domestic and international commitments to climate change mitigation. But the country continues to depend on coal-fired power plants, which provide <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eskom.co.za\/IR2015\/Pages\/Default.aspx\">92% of its electricity<\/a>. A key challenge for the country in dealing with electricity <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gov.za\/issues\/energy-challenge\">shortages<\/a> is that the bulk of power comes from coal, which is harmful for the environment and local communities.<\/p>\n<p>The electricity sector is responsible for almost half of South Africa\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdp.net\/CDPResults\/south-africa-carbon-chasm.pdf\">carbon emissions<\/a>. As discussed in our <a href=\"http:\/\/deepdecarbonization.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/DDPP-Political-Economy-261115-FINAL-for-printing.pdf\">recent report<\/a>, it will be difficult to overcome the important contribution that coal makes to the electricity sector and the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Decarbonisation in the electricity sector cannot be achieved without reducing the absolute contribution of coal-fired power. This can be achieved by introducing a range of low-carbon energy options. These include wind, solar photovoltaics and concentrated solar power, in addition to rapidly developing technologies for energy storage. Demand-side measurement and energy efficiency could also play a key role. All these measures and interventions offer significant potential.<\/p>\n<p>But moving away from coal is proving difficult.<\/p>\n<h2>Political tensions<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/deepdecarbonization.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/DDPP-Political-Economy-261115-FINAL-for-printing.pdf\">The reasons<\/a> for South Africa\u2019s electricity crisis are long-term and complex. They include a severe backlog in maintenance of its plants and delays in the construction of new power plants. This poses several opportunities and challenges.<\/p>\n<p>The opportunities it presents include increasing the contribution of renewable energy to the national power supply. But can renewable energy compete with existing coal-fired power and a potential nuclear fleet? And can renewable energy be implemented in a way that prioritises socio-economic well-being and transparent and democratic policy processes? In other words, will the country\u2019s moves towards a lower-carbon economy incorporate a \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/column.global-labour-university.org\/2011\/01\/contesting-just-transition-to-low.html\">just transition<\/a>\u201d?<\/p>\n<p>Among the challenges is the fact that South Africa\u2019s electricity crisis is compounded by a lack of transparency in decision-making and political power struggles. For example, there are long-standing tensions within the ruling party and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.anc.org.za\/kids\/main.php?id=14\">tripartite alliance<\/a> made up of the African National Congress, the trade union congress and the South African Communist Party. These tensions can be found in the ideologically driven disagreement between those who want a liberalised electricity market and those who want the government to hold onto the crisis-ridden, state-owned utility, Eskom.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, recent steps toward transparent and democratic energy planning and policies have been undermined. For example, the latest revision of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.energy.gov.za\/files\/irp_frame.html\">Integrated Resource Plan<\/a> for electricity has been put on ice.<\/p>\n<p>The electricity master plan was launched in 2011 following a prolonged and intense stakeholder engagement process. It covers the country\u2019s total demand requirements from 2010 to 2030.<\/p>\n<p>According to the plan, an electricity project must align with the technological allocations set by the country\u2019s electricity plan to be granted a license. The plan includes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>a cap on CO2 emissions,<\/li>\n<li>plans to include 17GW of renewable energy that will deliver 9% of supply by 2030,<\/li>\n<li>9.6GW from a nuclear fleet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Coal, nevertheless, dominates the electricity generation mix.<\/p>\n<h2>The nuclear complication<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com\/files\/114950\/area14mp\/image-20160314-11295-1fl8cx.jpg?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com\/files\/114950\/width668\/image-20160314-11295-1fl8cx.jpg?resize=550%2C295&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"295\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"caption\">South African President Jacob Zuma and Russian President Vladimir Putin have discussed the option of nuclear energy for South Africa.<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">Reuters<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>In 2013 a revised Integrated Resource Plan was put out for public comment. This was in keeping with the expectation that the original would be updated on a biennial basis. It proposed lower electricity demand because of a decline in economic growth, higher prices and increased energy efficiency. The revised plan also stated that commitments to long-range, large-scale investment decisions should be avoided. Notably the revised demand projections suggested that:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>no new nuclear baseload capacity would be required until after 2025 and, for lower demand, not until at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sapvia.co.za\/integrated-resource-plan-for-electricity-irp-2010-2030-update-report-2013-2\/\">earliest 2035<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The revised plan is unlikely to be approved because it seriously challenges the case for the proposed 9.6GW <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bdlive.co.za\/business\/energy\/2015\/08\/28\/molefe-put-on-the-spot-on-key-points-of-irp\">nuclear power programme<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The cost of the programme has yet to be determined and it is still unclear if it will be affordable. This programme, which is being pushed by the Presidency, is tied up in broader political wrangling. Serious questions over affordability have been linked to the firing of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.news24.com\/SouthAfrica\/News\/four-possible-reasons-why-nene-was-fired-20151210\">finance minister Nhlanhla Nene<\/a> in December 2015 who opposed the programme on the grounds of cost.<\/p>\n<p>If the nuclear programme is approved, it will shape the country\u2019s electricity mix, infrastructure and related tariffs for years to come. While it may reduce carbon emissions in the long term, this will come at a greater cost than other options.<\/p>\n<h2>The role of renewables<\/h2>\n<p>South Africa has made a significant move toward decarbonisation through a renewable energy procurement <a href=\"http:\/\/www.erc.uct.ac.za\/sites\/default\/files\/image_tool\/images\/119\/Papers-2015\/15-Baker-Wlokas-RE_frontier.pdf\">programme<\/a>. Launched in 2011, the programme followed the inclusion of a carbon constraint in the country\u2019s Integrated Resource Plan for electricity. Since then there has been significant growth in the renewable sector backed by South Africa\u2019s banks and private investors.<\/p>\n<p>The country\u2019s renewable energy programme is internationally celebrated as a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gsb.uct.ac.za\/files\/PPIAFReport.pdf\">success<\/a> for the procurement of renewable energy from independent power producers. In addition the costs of these renewable energy technologies have decreased dramatically in the past four years. Utility-scale wind and solar photovoltaics are now cost competitive with Eskom\u2019s new-build coal.<\/p>\n<p>Grid-tied, roof-top solar photovoltaics are also rapidly emerging, despite the continued absence of an appropriate <a href=\"http:\/\/www.engineeringnews.co.za\/article\/nersa-says-rules-for-embedded-generators-to-be-included-in-doe-licensing-regulations-2015-12-07\">regulatory framework<\/a>. These are being installed by wealthy households and businesses who are trying to buy independence from an increasingly unreliable grid and rising electricity tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>Some large industrial players are also trying to connect their own generation plants to the grid through <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eskom.co.za\/Whatweredoing\/Documents\/Wheeling30%20March2011.pdf\">wheeling agreements<\/a>. These involve independent power producers selling electricity to a third party via Eskom\u2019s grid.<\/p>\n<p>These agreements suddenly seem more attractive in light of the supply-side crisis and the uncertainty of Eskom\u2019s ability to meet the electricity demand.<br \/>\nBut they have been stymied because rules around their cost have not been established.<\/p>\n<p>The final piece of the puzzle is to ensure that all decarbonisation efforts and energy supply reach low income consumers. If the country\u2019s tariffs continue to increase it will become even more difficult for the lower income bracket to have access to modern energy services.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/counter.theconversation.edu.au\/content\/55045\/count.gif?resize=1%2C1&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/lucy-baker-171974\">Lucy Baker<\/a>, Research Fellow, International Relations, The Sussex Energy Group, Centre for Global Political Economy, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-sussex\">University of Sussex<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-burton-236506\">Jesse Burton<\/a>, PhD Candidate in energy and industrial policy, economic history, domestic and international coal markets, the mining and minerals sectors, and state-business relations in South Africa, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-cape-town\">University of Cape Town<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published on <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-south-africa-is-finding-it-difficult-to-wean-itself-off-coal-55045\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>You can read more about Lucy Bakers new research, and\u00a0her\u00a0fellowship\u00a0awarded by the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sais-cari.org\/fellowships-2015-second-round\">2015 SAIS-CARI Fellowship Program<\/a>\u00a0into\u00a0the drivers and obstacles to the expansion of Chinese renewable energy activities in South Africa;\u00a0in the Sussex Energy Group\u00a0blog post &#8216;<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/02\/26\/understanding-chinas-involvement-in-south-africans-renewable-energy-sector\/\">Understanding China\u2019s involvement in South Africa\u2019s Renewable Energy Sector<\/a>&#8216;<\/strong><\/p>\nFollow Sussex Energy Group      <span class=\"synved-social-container synved-social-container-follow\"><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-follow synved-social-size-16 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-facebook nolightbox\" data-provider=\"facebook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Follow us on Facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Sussex-Energy-Group\/448345351971248?ref=hl\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:16px;height:16px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"Facebook\" title=\"Follow us on Facebook\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-follow\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" style=\"display: inline; width:16px;height:16px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/32x32\/facebook.png?resize=16%2C16&#038;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-follow synved-social-size-16 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-twitter nolightbox\" data-provider=\"twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Follow us on Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SussexNRGGroup\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:16px;height:16px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"twitter\" title=\"Follow us on Twitter\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-follow\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" style=\"display: inline; width:16px;height:16px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/32x32\/twitter.png?resize=16%2C16&#038;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-follow synved-social-size-16 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-linkedin nolightbox\" data-provider=\"linkedin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Find us on Linkedin\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sussex-energy-group\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:16px;height:16px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;\"><img alt=\"linkedin\" title=\"Find us on Linkedin\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-follow\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" style=\"display: inline; width:16px;height:16px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/32x32\/linkedin.png?resize=16%2C16&#038;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lucy Baker, University of Sussex and Jesse Burton, University of Cape Town South Africa has made domestic and international commitments to climate change mitigation. But the country continues to depend on coal-fired power plants, which provide 92% of its electricity.<span class=\"ellipsis\">&hellip;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/03\/15\/1291\/\">Read more &#8250;<\/a><\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[96027,39117,81017],"tags":[6788,96083,78402,15758,16821,96090,96093,4100,96040],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v16.6.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"South Africa has made domestic and international commitments to climate change mitigation, but the country continues to depend on coal-fired power plants.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/03\/15\/1291\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why South Africa is finding it difficult to wean itself off coal - 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This crisis has resulted in regular load-shedding across the country since late last year as the country\u2019s cash strapped utility Eskom faces a $17 billion funding gap to 2018. Electricity consumers face a 250\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All Posts&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":627,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2015\/02\/17\/south-africas-electricity-crisis-and-the-future-of-supply-by-lucy-baker\/","url_meta":{"origin":1291,"position":1},"title":"South Africa\u2019s electricity crisis and the future of supply","date":"17 February 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"During his \u2018State of the Nation address\u2019 last week South Africa\u2019s President Jacob Zuma promised to do \u201ceverything we can\u201d to resolve the country's energy challenge, including: to develop a large nuclear fleet; construct yet more coal-fired power plants; import hydro from the Democratic Republic of Congo; import gas from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All Posts&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/files\/2015\/02\/LucyBaker-Sussex-e1424441837798-281x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1456,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/06\/29\/south-africa-gas-pave-way-towards-greener-sources-energy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1291,"position":2},"title":"South Africa: could gas pave the way towards greener sources of energy?","date":"29 June 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"In South Africa, the process of mining coal for power generation or for export is increasingly becoming difficult, because the ability to source finances in a carbon conscious market is limited. The country wants to reduce its dependence on coal and believes that in order to meet uncertain electricity demand,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fossil fuels&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"Coal miner with a helmet and headlamp","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/files\/2016\/06\/coal-miner.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1566,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/11\/25\/autumn-statement-low-carbon-transition\/","url_meta":{"origin":1291,"position":3},"title":"After the 2016 Autumn Statement: The low carbon transition \u2013 still blowing in the wind?","date":"25 November 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter famously described the \u201cwinds of creative destruction\u201d: a process of industrial transformation in which product and process innovations revolutionise the existing industrial structure, destroying the old one by creating a new one. But the Chancellor\u2019s 2016 Autumn Statement - delivered just five days after the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All Posts&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/files\/2016\/11\/graph-for-blog-FK.jpg?fit=508%2C344&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":86,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2014\/03\/21\/budget-2014-short-term-gains-for-business-bad-news-for-the-environment\/","url_meta":{"origin":1291,"position":4},"title":"Budget 2014: short-term gains for business, bad news for the environment","date":"21 March 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"By Jim Watson, Research Director, UK Energy Research Centre\u00a0and \u00a0Professor of Energy Policy, Sussex Energy Group\u00a0in SPRU, University of Sussex This post originally\u00a0appeared on \u00a0The Conversation The big energy policy headline in the budget was well trailed. As expected, the level of the UK\u2019s carbon tax on electricity generation will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All Posts&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1276,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2016\/02\/26\/understanding-chinas-involvement-in-south-africans-renewable-energy-sector\/","url_meta":{"origin":1291,"position":5},"title":"Understanding China\u2019s involvement in South Africa\u2019s Renewable Energy Sector","date":"26 February 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"China is Africa\u2019s largest trading partner, providing demand for the continent\u2019s energy and minerals, and its direct investments in the continent are also on the rise. When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited the African Union in 2014, he announced that China would raise its direct investment in the continent to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All Posts&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/files\/2016\/02\/south-africa-500-300x200.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/112"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1291"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1317,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291\/revisions\/1317"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}