{"id":295,"date":"2014-10-17T11:35:58","date_gmt":"2014-10-17T11:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sussexnrggrp.wordpress.com\/?p=295"},"modified":"2015-06-09T11:01:11","modified_gmt":"2015-06-09T11:01:11","slug":"response-to-pattersons-unremarkable-and-nonsensical-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/sussexenergygroup\/2014\/10\/17\/response-to-pattersons-unremarkable-and-nonsensical-speech\/","title":{"rendered":"Response to Paterson\u2019s unremarkable and nonsensical speech"},"content":{"rendered":"

Owen Paterson, the UK\u2019s former Secretary of State for the Environment \u2013 and now scourge of environmentalists \u2013 made the most extraordinary speech a few days ago on climate change and energy policy[1].\u00a0 The speech was a rare combination of the unremarkable and the nonsensical.\u00a0\"Gordon<\/a> In the unremarkable category, Mr Paterson argued that climate change science was broadly right.\u00a0\u00a0 Equally, his endorsement of local combined heat and power and what he called \u2018rational\u2019 demand management are compatible with a suitably wide-ranging approach to countering climate change.\u00a0 His scepticism about the achievability of an 80% cut in GHG emissions by 2050 is at least arguable, and his view that the attempt will be very expensive is almost certainly right – but probably much less expensive than the long-term cost of inaction .[2]<\/a><\/p>\n

But most of the rest of his speech is deeply misguided and\/or prejudiced.\u00a0 The warning signs come early on in his appeal to \u2018common sense\u2019 – always a dangerous approach, as my common sense will rarely be yours, and is often a cover for deeply-held prejudice.\u00a0\u00a0 The idea of common sense also has the appeal of not needing scrutiny.\u00a0\u00a0 Among the \u2018common sense\u2019 ideas Paterson advocates is exploitation of shale gas and, somewhat bizarrely, the building of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs).\u00a0 Shale gas is of course something that the UK may well develop in a limited way, though at some political cost and offering no reductions in gas prices, as the UK is well integrated in a European market that will scarcely notice UK shale production.\u00a0 So shale\u2019s impact will at best be marginal, take several years to become even noticeable, and not likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[3]<\/a>\u00a0 And his view that renewables are hopelessly expensive ignores the fact that there are major, ongoing cost reductions in many renewable technologies<\/p>\n

But with SMRs, we enter the territory of fantasy.\u00a0 First, he oddly confuses the obsolete (and as it happens, quite small) UK Magnox reactors with the new generation of proposed SMRs.\u00a0 But no SMR (properly defined) has yet been commercialised anywhere in the world, and work on them \u2013 mainly in the USA \u2013 has been waning , as their developers, notably Westinghouse, have said they cannot find a market.\u00a0 This is unsurprising as their cost per unit of output is higher than the already expensive conventional, larger reactors, unless hundreds can be sold to give manufacturing economies.\u00a0 But no-one will commit to large orders of technologies that are not yet proved to work reliably.\u00a0 The MIT, in their study of the future of nuclear power,[4]<\/a> convincingly argue that radically new nuclear technologies take up to 50 years to become established due to factors like the need for safety licensing, prototype experimentation, planning and siting approvals, slow construction times \u2013 all in the context of historically rising costs and a need to win public acceptance.\u00a0 So we should expect no significant contribution from SMRs by 2050, even if they do become commercialised, which is far from clear.<\/p>\n

But perhaps most extraordinary of all in the speech is Paterson\u2019s contention that rising energy bills, \u00a0penalising (\u2018coercing\u2019) especially the poor, have been a consequence of rising green taxes or levies.\u00a0 There are two major flaws here: first, the overwhelmingly biggest contributor to rising energy prices over the last several years has been hefty increases in the price of gas; and second, slightly more than half of these green charges directly<\/em> pay to help reduce fuel bills for the poor\u00a0 via insulation or more efficient heating systems.<\/p>\n

If all this was not quite enough, Paterson ends with a clarion call to give scientists and businesses the \u2018freedom\u2019 to explore relevant new technologies.\u00a0 Quite what is supposed to be shackling these communities is not clear from the speech; and the reality is that there has been an enormous increase in research effort in energy in recent years, which will hopefully both widen and cheapen the range of technological choices which will help meet the challenges that climate change so formidably poses.<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Owen Paterson \u2018Keeping the Lights on\u2019 Annual lecture to Global Warming Policy Foundation\u00a0 15 October 2014<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> N. Stern The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern Review <\/em>Cambridge 2007.<\/a><\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> H. McJeon et al. \u2018Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas\u2019\u00a0 Nature <\/em>doi:10.1038\/nature13837<\/a><\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> MIT The Future of Nuclear Power<\/em>\u00a0 An Interdisciplinary Study 2003, and MIT Update of the 2003 Future of Nuclear Power <\/em>2009<\/a><\/p>\n

Professor Gordon MacKerron<\/span>, Professor of Science and Technology Policy, SPRU<\/span>, Co-Director of Sussex Energy Group.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

#climatechange<\/p>\nFollow Sussex Energy Group \"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"linkedin\"<\/a><\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Owen Paterson, the UK\u2019s former Secretary of State for the Environment \u2013 and now scourge of environmentalists \u2013 made the most extraordinary speech a few days ago on climate change and energy policy[1].\u00a0 The speech was a rare combination of…<\/span><\/p>\n

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