{"id":2105,"date":"2018-03-02T11:38:29","date_gmt":"2018-03-02T11:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=2105"},"modified":"2018-07-10T10:42:29","modified_gmt":"2018-07-10T09:42:29","slug":"the-irreconcilability-of-the-uk-governments-objectives-for-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/03\/02\/the-irreconcilability-of-the-uk-governments-objectives-for-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"The irreconcilability of the UK Government&#8217;s objectives for Brexit"},"content":{"rendered":"<em>Share this article: <\/em> <a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-facebook nolightbox\" data-provider=\"facebook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2105&#038;t=The%20irreconcilability%20of%20the%20UK%20Government%E2%80%99s%20objectives%20for%20Brexit&#038;s=100&#038;p&#091;url&#093;=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2105&#038;p&#091;images&#093;&#091;0&#093;=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F01%2FMichael-Gasiorek-247x300.jpg&#038;p&#091;title&#093;=The%20irreconcilability%20of%20the%20UK%20Government%E2%80%99s%20objectives%20for%20Brexit\" style=\"font-size: 0px; 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width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/linkedin.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-mail nolightbox\" data-provider=\"mail\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share by email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=The%20irreconcilability%20of%20the%20UK%20Government%E2%80%99s%20objectives%20for%20Brexit&#038;body=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog:%20https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2105\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;\"><img alt=\"mail\" title=\"Share by email\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/mail.png\" \/><\/a><p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-469\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2017\/01\/Michael-Gasiorek-247x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"130\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2017\/01\/Michael-Gasiorek-247x300.jpg 247w, https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2017\/01\/Michael-Gasiorek.jpg 346w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 130px) 100vw, 130px\" \/>2 March 2018<\/p>\n<p><em>Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and \u00a0Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. He is a Fellow of the\u00a0UKTPO.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>There is much talk about the UK not being able to \u201ccherry-pick\u201d and \u201chave its cake and eat it\u201d with regards to post-Brexit trade policy with the EU. There are a couple of issues here. First, all EU agreements are different and hence by definition bespoke. Cherries are picked by both sides. This will also be true of a future UK-EU agreement. The question, therefore, really is to do with the extent to which the EU will grant the UK a bespoke deal in serious and substantive ways. The second issue is that it is far from clear that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/theresa-mays-five-tests-for-brexit\/\">UK government<\/a> currently knows what all the ingredients are and what the recipe is for the cake it is hoping to share with the EU.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The UK Government\u2019s stated trade-related objectives in terms of the post-Brexit relationship with the EU include<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>independence with regard to trade policy,<\/li>\n<li>independence with regard regulatory policy<\/li>\n<li>maintaining the economic integrity of the UK, and no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; where the latter is also a condition for the EU (as seen in the EU\u2019s recently published draft Withdrawal Agreement).<\/li>\n<li>In addition, the UK government seeks to maintain as much access to the Single Market as possible, while leaving the Single Market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These conditions cannot all be reconciled.<\/p>\n<p>Part of the discussion this week has been around continuing EU-UK customs union arrangements. It is important to underline that there is a real and manifest difference in the desirability of the UK remaining part of \u201cthe\u201d current EU Customs Union, and signing \u201ca\u201d new comprehensive customs union with the EU. The latter option is far less desirable unless it has equivalent effect bilaterally. This is because it would commit the UK to granting access to any of the EU\u2019s Free Trade Area partner countries, but would not commit the partner countries to reciprocate.<\/p>\n<p>A further issue is that of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.\u00a0 Any option that involves a free trade area (to allow for independent trade policy) and\/or regulatory divergence would necessitate customs and border controls which implies a hard border.\u00a0 A full customs union with the EU partly resolves the issue of tariffs and rules of origin but would not solve the issue of monitoring of regulations and conformity assessment, nor the movement of people.<\/p>\n<p>If either tariffs or regulations differ between the UK and EU practically it is very hard to see how technological solutions could overcome the need for border infrastructure. \u00a0Even if there were such solutions, with all the political goodwill in the world, non-compliance and illegal trafficking would need to be curtailed via effective non-border monitoring and appropriate punishment procedures. This would be expensive, complex, and agreement \/ coordination with the EU may be difficult to achieve.<\/p>\n<p>In the absence of a technological solution, all possible variants of UK-EU trade relations which meet the UK government\u2019s stated conditions are mutually irreconcilable. For a full exploration and explanation of ways forward, see the Briefing Paper,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/publications\/uk-eu-trade-relations-post-brexit-binding-constraints-and-impossible-solutions\/\">UK\u2013EU trade relations post Brexit: binding constraints and impossible solutions<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The solution space is null.<\/p>\n<p>The best outcomes economically are those that keep the UK as a part of the EU Customs Union (or equivalent), and to remain in the Single Market (or as close to the Single Market as possible). Numerous empirical studies, such as our work on the impact on <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/publications\/which-manufacturing-sectors-are-most-vulnerable-to-brexit\/\">UK manufacturing<\/a>, have made this clear. However, on the basis of the UK government\u2019s current conditions and the path being taken, the likelihood is a fairly shallow free trade agreement with the EU, with limited liberalisation of services and the likely introduction of a border in Ireland.<\/p>\n<p>The only way of resolving this is to drop and\/or relax at least one or more of the conditions.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 18.0pt;background: white;margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 12.0pt;font-family: Helvetica;color: #333333\">Disclaimer:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 18.0pt;background: white;margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 12.0pt;font-family: Helvetica;color: #333333\">The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex or UK Trade Policy Observatory.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 18.0pt;background: white;margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 12.0pt;font-family: Helvetica;color: #333333\">Republishing guidelines<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 18.0pt;background: white;margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 12.0pt;font-family: Helvetica;color: #333333\">The UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement.\u00a0For online use, this should be a link to the original resource on our website. We do not publish under a Creative Commons\u00a0license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share this article: 2 March 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and \u00a0Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. He is a Fellow of the\u00a0UKTPO. There is much talk about the UK not being able to \u201ccherry-pick\u201d and \u201chave its cake and eat it\u201d with regards to post-Brexit trade policy with the EU. There are a couple of issues here. First, all EU agreements are different and hence by definition bespoke. Cherries are picked by both sides. This will also be true of a future UK-EU agreement. The question, therefore, really is to do with the extent to which the EU will grant the UK a bespoke deal in serious and substantive ways. The second issue is that it is far from clear that the UK government currently knows what all the ingredients are and what the recipe is for the cake&#8230; <a class=\"read-more btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/03\/02\/the-irreconcilability-of-the-uk-governments-objectives-for-brexit\/\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":213,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130195],"tags":[147875,131307,147854,37253,123537,147852,123581,123281],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2105"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2105"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2105\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2480,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2105\/revisions\/2480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}