{"id":3045,"date":"2018-12-10T14:57:15","date_gmt":"2018-12-10T14:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=3045"},"modified":"2018-12-17T11:42:32","modified_gmt":"2018-12-17T11:42:32","slug":"the-vulnerability-of-different-parliamentary-constituencies-to-brexit-economic-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/12\/10\/the-vulnerability-of-different-parliamentary-constituencies-to-brexit-economic-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"The vulnerability of different parliamentary constituencies to Brexit economic shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"Share this article: <\/em> \"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"reddit\"<\/a>\"pinterest\"<\/a>\"linkedin\"<\/a>\"mail\"<\/a>

\"\"\"Image10 December 2018<\/em><\/p>\n

L. Alan Winters\u00a0CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and\u00a0Ilona Serwicka is\u00a0Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the Observatory.<\/em><\/i><\/p>\n

Today we are publishing a study of the economic impact of \u2018no deal\u2019<\/strong><\/a> and \u2018soft\u2019<\/a><\/strong> Brexit scenarios on the 632 Parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain. It shows that calculating the effect of Brexit on the residents<\/em><\/strong> in an area gives a very different perspective from the more common calculation based on the jobs in that area<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

For example, a \u2018no deal\u2019 Brexit would imply a shock equivalent to losing some 42,400 jobs in the parliamentary constituency of Cities of London and Westminster. However, 41,250 of these jobs are held by people who live elsewhere. At the other extreme, Streatham may suffer a loss equivalent to 650 of its jobs, but around 2,250 of Streatham\u2019s residents would lose their employment.<\/p>\n

Our estimates are conservative. They suggest that failing to secure a close trading relationship with the EU will give the UK economy a shock equivalent to losing a total of about 750,000 jobs (only about half the value implied by the government\u2019s own estimates of 28th<\/sup> November). We find that, while those job losses will tend to be concentrated in cities and large towns, the people whose jobs they are, tend to live over much larger surrounding areas.<\/p>\n

Presenting Brexit effects by area of residence is important because people typically spend more where they live than where they work. This means that the impact of Brexit on any constituency is captured more appropriately by studying the possible job losses among residents of that constituency rather than among workers in that constituency. Once we look at Brexit on a residence basis, we see that its economic costs are less concentrated but far more widespread than one would guess from the pattern of employment around the UK in terms of workplaces. While 269 constituencies will suffer shocks equivalent to losing more than one thousand jobs on a workplace-basis, 398 will do so on a residence-basis.<\/p>\n

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No deal Brexit on jobs – defined by workplace<\/p><\/div>\n

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No deal Brexit on jobs – defined by place of residence<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Constituency-level results are particularly important at present because Parliament, and hence the views of individual MPs, will play a key role in making Brexit decisions as part of the imminent \u2018meaningful vote\u2019. Our results will help MPs and the people who vote for them to gauge, albeit approximately, one aspect of their economic interest in the outcome of Brexit.<\/p>\n

The complete set of results that measure the Brexit shock in terms of possible job losses among workplaces and residents of the 632 parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain, along with a more detailed discussion of them, is available is this note<\/a>. We give results for a \u2018no deal\u2019 Brexit and a \u2018soft\u2019 Brexit which assumes that the UK maintains much closer links with the EU economy.<\/p>\n

This study is a follow-up to our recent analysis of the impact of Brexit on the 34 parliamentary constituencies in Hampshire and Sussex<\/a> published on 21 November 2018. That publication explains exactly how the estimates are derived and how to interpret them.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/em>
\nThe opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex or UK Trade Policy Observatory.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Republishing guidelines:<\/em>
\nThe UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement.\u00a0For online use, this should be a link to the original resource on our website. We do not publish under a Creative Commons\u00a0license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Share this article: 10 December 2018 L. Alan Winters\u00a0CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and\u00a0Ilona Serwicka is\u00a0Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the Observatory. Today we are publishing a study of the economic impact of \u2018no deal\u2019 and \u2018soft\u2019 Brexit scenarios on the 632 Parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain. It shows that calculating the effect of Brexit on the residents in an area gives a very different perspective from the more common calculation based on the jobs in that area. For example, a \u2018no deal\u2019 Brexit would imply a shock equivalent to losing some 42,400 jobs in the parliamentary constituency of Cities of London and Westminster. However, 41,250 of these jobs are held by people who live elsewhere. At the other extreme, Streatham may suffer a loss equivalent to 650 of its jobs, but around 2,250 of Streatham\u2019s residents would lose their… Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":213,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130195],"tags":[96141,123588,94174,123634,147936],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3045"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3068,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3045\/revisions\/3068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}