{"id":3054,"date":"2018-12-10T16:39:45","date_gmt":"2018-12-10T16:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=3054"},"modified":"2018-12-10T16:39:45","modified_gmt":"2018-12-10T16:39:45","slug":"the-uks-post-brexit-trade-relationship-with-the-european-union-through-a-glass-darkly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/12\/10\/the-uks-post-brexit-trade-relationship-with-the-european-union-through-a-glass-darkly\/","title":{"rendered":"The UK\u2019s post-Brexit Trade Relationship with the European Union:  Through a glass, darkly"},"content":{"rendered":"<em>Share this article: <\/em> <a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-facebook nolightbox\" data-provider=\"facebook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;t=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly&#038;s=100&#038;p&#091;url&#093;=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;p&#091;images&#093;&#091;0&#093;=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F01%2FAlan-Winters-100w.jpg&#038;p&#091;title&#093;=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"Facebook\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/facebook.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-twitter nolightbox\" data-provider=\"twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;text=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"twitter\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/twitter.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-reddit nolightbox\" data-provider=\"reddit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;title=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"reddit\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/reddit.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-pinterest nolightbox\" data-provider=\"pinterest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" href=\"https:\/\/pinterest.com\/pin\/create\/button\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;media=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F01%2FAlan-Winters-100w.jpg&#038;description=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"pinterest\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/pinterest.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-linkedin nolightbox\" data-provider=\"linkedin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054&#038;title=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"linkedin\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/linkedin.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-mail nolightbox\" data-provider=\"mail\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share by email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=The%20UK%E2%80%99s%20post-Brexit%20Trade%20Relationship%20with%20the%20European%20Union%3A%20%20Through%20a%20glass%2C%20darkly&#038;body=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog:%20https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3054\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;\"><img alt=\"mail\" title=\"Share by email\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/mail.png\" \/><\/a><p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-501\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2017\/01\/Alan-Winters-100w.jpg\" alt=\"Image of Alan Winters\" width=\"100\" height=\"130\" \/>10 December 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<p><i>L. Alan Winters\u00a0<em>CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0<\/em><\/i><\/p>\n<p>The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are being presented as a means to end the uncertainty about the UK\u2019s future relationship with Europe. But in an <a href=\"http:\/\/ukandeu.ac.uk\/explainers\/what-are-the-options-for-the-uks-trading-relationship-with-the-eu-after-brexit\/\">explainer<\/a> for the ESRC\u2019s UK in a Changing Europe, Professor L Alan Winters argues that this is not the case. Uncertainty will continue regardless of what happens to the Withdrawal Agreement.<\/p>\n<p>Briefly, he argues that, if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament and the EU:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The backstop it mandates requires a customs union between the UK and the EU and that most EU regulations for goods will apply in Northern Ireland. However, there is no regulatory alignment between the rest of the UK and the EU and so, if the backstop came into operation, there would be border formalities both in the Irish Sea and as UK goods entered the EU via any other route.<\/li>\n<li>Negotiating a trade agreement with the EU will take a lot longer than the 21 months allowed for it in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because every EU member state has a veto over trade agreements.<\/li>\n<li>The Political Declaration that defines the parameters for that negotiation is imprecise in critical places and is, anyway, non-binding.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, neither would rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement resolve the uncertainty. There is a wide range of possible outcomes all but one of which impose serious economic harm and\/or require further negotiation. The option that involves least uncertainty and cost would be to remain within the EU; however, trying to achieve that outcome involves both significant political risks and the risk of \u2018no deal\u2019 if the attempt failed.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2018Through a glass, darkly\u2019<\/em> is biblical \u2013 1 Corinthians 13:12 \u2013 and is interpreted as meaning that we can see only imprecisely and via a mirror, but that, in the end, all will become clear. Seems about the best we can hope for.<\/p>\n<p>Read the full article, <a href=\"http:\/\/ukandeu.ac.uk\/explainers\/what-are-the-options-for-the-uks-trading-relationship-with-the-eu-after-brexit\/\">What are the options for the UK\u2019s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share this article: 10 December 2018 L. Alan Winters\u00a0CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0 The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are being presented as a means to end the uncertainty about the UK\u2019s future relationship with Europe. But in an explainer for the ESRC\u2019s UK in a Changing Europe, Professor L Alan Winters argues that this is not the case. Uncertainty will continue regardless of what happens to the Withdrawal Agreement. Briefly, he argues that, if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament and the EU: The backstop it mandates requires a customs union between the UK and the EU and that most EU regulations for goods will apply in Northern Ireland. However, there is no regulatory alignment between the rest of the UK and the EU and so, if the backstop came into operation, there would be border formalities both in&#8230; <a class=\"read-more btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/12\/10\/the-uks-post-brexit-trade-relationship-with-the-european-union-through-a-glass-darkly\/\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":213,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130195],"tags":[147938,131307,147858,147937,147888],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3054"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3055,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054\/revisions\/3055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}