{"id":3065,"date":"2018-12-17T12:11:19","date_gmt":"2018-12-17T12:11:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=3065"},"modified":"2019-01-28T09:17:43","modified_gmt":"2019-01-28T09:17:43","slug":"organising-the-second-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2018\/12\/17\/organising-the-second-referendum\/","title":{"rendered":"Organising the \u2018Second\u2019 Referendum"},"content":{"rendered":"<em>Share this article: <\/em> <a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-facebook nolightbox\" data-provider=\"facebook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;t=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum&#038;s=100&#038;p&#091;url&#093;=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;p&#091;images&#093;&#091;0&#093;=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F01%2FAlan-Winters-100w.jpg&#038;p&#091;title&#093;=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"Facebook\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/facebook.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-twitter nolightbox\" data-provider=\"twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;text=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"twitter\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/twitter.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-reddit nolightbox\" data-provider=\"reddit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;title=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"reddit\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/reddit.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-pinterest nolightbox\" data-provider=\"pinterest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" href=\"https:\/\/pinterest.com\/pin\/create\/button\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;media=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F01%2FAlan-Winters-100w.jpg&#038;description=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"pinterest\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/pinterest.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-linkedin nolightbox\" data-provider=\"linkedin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065&#038;title=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"linkedin\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/linkedin.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-mail nolightbox\" data-provider=\"mail\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share by email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Organising%20the%20%E2%80%98Second%E2%80%99%20Referendum&#038;body=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog:%20https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3065\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;\"><img alt=\"mail\" title=\"Share by email\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/mail.png\" \/><\/a><p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-501\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2017\/01\/Alan-Winters-100w.jpg\" alt=\"Image of Alan Winters\" width=\"100\" height=\"130\" \/>17 December 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<p><i>L. Alan Winters\u00a0<em>CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.<\/em><\/i><\/p>\n<p>The UKTPO exists to provide independent and objective advice on the economics and law of Brexit and trade policy. The question of <em>whether<\/em> to hold a \u2018second\u2019 referendum is essentially a political one. However, <em>how to organise<\/em> such a referendum is a technical question on which economists have something to offer.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Given the divisions in the country it seems plausible to argue that any referendum should offer three alternatives:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>leave with no deal,<\/li>\n<li>leave with Mrs May\u2019s deal, or<\/li>\n<li>remain (as, thanks to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/uk\/politics\/brexit-court-case-ecj-ruling-article-50-theresa-may-deal-uk-european-court-justice-latest-a8675541.html\">Court of Justice of the European Union,<\/a> we now understand we can decide to do unilaterally).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But organising a three-way contest seems quite challenging.<\/p>\n<p>For example, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2018\/nov\/23\/peoples-vote-brexit-mps-second-referendum\">Professor Vernon Bogdanor<\/a> suggests a two-stage referendum in which we ask first whether people want to leave and then, a week or so later, what form leave should take. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/programmes\/m0001mmm\">Professor Meg Russell<\/a>, in an excellent contribution to the Today Programme today (17<sup>th<\/sup> December 2018; at 2.39:50) characterised this as \u2018difficult\u2019, because how you vote in the first round is influenced by your hopes or expectations of the outcome of the second.<\/p>\n<p>Professor Russell is quite correct \u2013 Professor Bogdanor\u2019s ordering replicates the fundamental problem with the first referendum: no-one would know what \u2018leave\u2019 entailed. However, if we simply reversed the order of the questions, this problem would be avoided. Hence, on the assumption\u00a0that the details of each option had been properly explained, I recommend a two-round referendum with:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Round 1: \u201d<strong><em>IF<\/em><\/strong> we leave the EU, would you prefer \u2018no deal\u2019 or \u2018Mrs May\u2019s deal\u2019?\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Then, when the answer to this is known (say a week later),<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Round 2 asks \u201cNow you know <em>how<\/em> we would leave, would you prefer leaving or staying?\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The decision that would face the UK public in a referendum is sequential \u2013 the step of leaving inevitably precedes the step of implementing post-leave arrangements. Economists have long understood that the way to make optimal decisions in such circumstances is through a process known as \u2018backward induction\u2019. You start with what will be the last step of the actual process (which of the forms of \u2018leave\u2019 you prefer) and work backwards to determine whether the best of the leave options is better than remaining. So, in the first step, the UK electorate determines whether it would prefer no deal to Mrs May\u2019s deal, and then knowing what it will get from leave, whether it wants to go down that path at all.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-3076 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2018\/12\/second-ref-v3-Ella-1024x743.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"580\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2018\/12\/second-ref-v3-Ella-1024x743.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2018\/12\/second-ref-v3-Ella-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2018\/12\/second-ref-v3-Ella-768x557.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Disclaimer:<\/em><br \/>\n<em>The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex or UK Trade Policy Observatory.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Republishing guidelines:<\/em><br \/>\n<em>The UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement.\u00a0For online use, this should be a link to the original resource on our website. We do not publish under a Creative Commons\u00a0license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share this article: 17 December 2018 L. Alan Winters\u00a0CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. The UKTPO exists to provide independent and objective advice on the economics and law of Brexit and trade policy. The question of whether to hold a \u2018second\u2019 referendum is essentially a political one. However, how to organise such a referendum is a technical question on which economists have something to offer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":213,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130195],"tags":[147927,123634,147939],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3065"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3065"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3118,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3065\/revisions\/3118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}