{"id":4281,"date":"2019-12-11T10:01:33","date_gmt":"2019-12-11T10:01:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=4281"},"modified":"2019-12-11T10:02:35","modified_gmt":"2019-12-11T10:02:35","slug":"parties-election-promises-on-trade-are-incoherent-and-unachievable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2019\/12\/11\/parties-election-promises-on-trade-are-incoherent-and-unachievable\/","title":{"rendered":"Parties\u2019 election promises on trade are incoherent and unachievable"},"content":{"rendered":"Share this article: <\/em> \"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"reddit\"<\/a>\"pinterest\"<\/a>\"linkedin\"<\/a>\"mail\"<\/a>

11 December 2019<\/em><\/p>\n

In the lead up to the General Election, we have analysed the manifestos of the five main political parties and what they imply for future UK trade.<\/p>\n

Overall, we find that the manifestos in this General Election are incoherent and vague on trade and contain several unachievable targets.<\/p>\n

Conservatives<\/h4>\n

A Conservative manifesto pledge to end the transition period by the end of next year is extremely unlikely.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the feasibility of signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU by the end of 2020 is extremely unlikely and is dependent on to what extent the UK is willing to accept the EU position on matters such as fisheries and level playing field provisions.<\/p>\n

In addition, the feasibility of signing FTAs with third countries covering 80% of trade within three years is unrealistic. If the UK manages to sign a deal with the EU, that still leaves about 30% of trade to be covered so that means FTAs with another 12 countries or more and that is almost certainly not going to happen within the timeframe.<\/p>\n

Labour<\/h4>\n

Meanwhile, Labour\u2019s pledge to renegotiate a new Brexit Deal within three months and hold a second referendum within six would also be very difficult to achieve.<\/p>\n

The party\u2019s plans to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement within three months and then putting it to the country in a second referendum in six months is ambitious – especially if complicated by coalition negotiations with the SNP.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the Labour manifesto states there will be joint UK-EU trade deals, but it\u2019s not clear what that would mean. It might be possible for the UK and EU to agree on a consultation arrangement where the UK gets some input into EU trade negotiations but it\u2019s very unlikely the UK would get a seat at the table or any veto, so the proposed deal would certainly limit the UK\u2019s policy space in what it could negotiate in its own FTAs.<\/p>\n

The Green Party<\/h4>\n

The Green Party\u2019s ambitions for major subsidies to incentivise industry to cut emissions and farming to take up more environmental practices are also contentious.<\/p>\n

The Green New Deal includes subsidies to help firms to decarbonise and for farming to shift to a more environmentally fair and functioning agricultural on policy. The key question to this is how it will all sit with EU rules on state aid and competition, it\u2019s very hard to see how this will work in tandem with EU policy.<\/p>\n

Brexit Party<\/h4>\n

On the Brexit Party contract with the people, the party\u2019s objective to sign a Free Trade Agreement with the EU by summer 2020 is even more ambitious than the Conservative Party and therefore even more unlikely if the agreement were to have any significant content.<\/p>\n

The Northern Ireland border has been a significant problem for the governments of both Theresa May and Boris Johnson but to the Brexit Party this is not a problem. They argue that Northern Ireland and the Republic already have different currencies and different tax systems and have been fine until now so they don\u2019t see why exit from the EU will require a hard border. If it\u2019s the EU that wants to keep the Good Friday Agreement intact, the Brexit Party argues, it is up to the EU to offer the concessions and exceptions for Northern Ireland. This is extremely worrying.<\/p>\n

Liberal Democrats<\/h4>\n

It seems that the Liberal Democrats\u2019 acceptance of the status quo approach to trade policy making has a \u201cmissed trick\u201d \u00a0in not challenging the current lack of consultation and informed debate about trade policy.<\/p>\n

If we are to stay in the EU it would be heathy for us and healthy for the union to have a broader discussion on trade beyond just the sectorial interests of the banks looking after banking trade and the textile producers looking after the textile industry.<\/p>\n

Analysis of the five main parties\u2019 manifestos and what they imply for future UK trade was presented at Chatham House on 4th December 2019.<\/p>\n

Video: Watch the full discussion of ‘what party manifestos in the 2019 General Election imply for future UK trade<\/em>‘.<\/p>\n