{"id":6886,"date":"2022-07-18T17:33:32","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T16:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/?p=6886"},"modified":"2022-07-20T13:44:16","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T12:44:16","slug":"is-brexit-done","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2022\/07\/18\/is-brexit-done\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Brexit done?"},"content":{"rendered":"<em>Share this article: <\/em> <a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-facebook nolightbox\" data-provider=\"facebook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;t=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F&#038;s=100&#038;p&#091;url&#093;=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;p&#091;images&#093;&#091;0&#093;=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2021%2F10%2FMG-1-cropped.png&#038;p&#091;title&#093;=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"Facebook\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/facebook.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-twitter nolightbox\" data-provider=\"twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;text=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"twitter\" title=\"Share on Twitter\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/twitter.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-reddit nolightbox\" data-provider=\"reddit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;title=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"reddit\" title=\"Share on Reddit\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/reddit.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-pinterest nolightbox\" data-provider=\"pinterest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" href=\"https:\/\/pinterest.com\/pin\/create\/button\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;media=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Ffiles%2F2021%2F10%2FMG-1-cropped.png&#038;description=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"pinterest\" title=\"Pin it with Pinterest\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/pinterest.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-linkedin nolightbox\" data-provider=\"linkedin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886&#038;title=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-right:5px;\"><img alt=\"linkedin\" title=\"Share on Linkedin\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/linkedin.png\" \/><\/a><a class=\"synved-social-button synved-social-button-share synved-social-size-32 synved-social-resolution-single synved-social-provider-mail nolightbox\" data-provider=\"mail\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"Share by email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Is%20Brexit%20done%3F&#038;body=UK%20Trade%20Policy%20Observatory%20blog:%20https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.sussex.ac.uk%2Fuktpo%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F6886\" style=\"font-size: 0px; width:32px;height:32px;margin:0;margin-bottom:5px;\"><img alt=\"mail\" title=\"Share by email\" class=\"synved-share-image synved-social-image synved-social-image-share\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" style=\"display: inline; width:32px;height:32px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; box-shadow: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-content\/plugins\/social-media-feather\/synved-social\/image\/social\/regular\/64x64\/mail.png\" \/><\/a><p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-6247\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/files\/2021\/10\/MG-1-cropped.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"100\" height=\"130\" \/>18 July 2022<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the <a href=\"https:\/\/citp.ac.uk\/\">Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy<\/a>. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Boris Johnson was elected on the slogan and promise of \u2018Get Brexit Done\u2019. It is perhaps somewhat ironic, then, to see disagreement between the contenders to succeed him as to whether Brexit has actually yet been done.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Ironic, but not surprising. It is not surprising because, aside from encapsulating the formal leaving of the EU, Brexit has always meant different things to different people. Just as there were myriad different forms of possible departure from the EU, there are myriad ex-post interpretations of whether or not Brexit has been (truly) achieved. Brexit is in the eye of the beholder, so to speak.<\/p>\n<p>An absolutely central feature of Brexit \u2013 and of the deal struck with the EU \u2013 was to grant UK independence over the formulation of trade policy. It is striking therefore, in watching the televised debates between the candidates (which include a former Secretary of State for Trade, and a current Trade Minister) vying to replace the Prime Minister<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>, that none of them have chosen to <strong><em>meaningfully<\/em><\/strong> engage with and discuss trade policy. I exaggerate a bit \u2013 we have heard several times from Liz Truss that she has signed numerous trade deals.<\/p>\n<p>Why does ignoring trade policy matter? Listening to the debates, one might think that all of the current significant economic issues being discussed are purely domestic matters. From the cost-of-living crisis to low economic growth (note that levelling up and regional disparities have barely had a mention), the policy choices dominating the debates are whether or not to raise or lower taxes, or remove regulations. These challenging issues are not, however, purely domestic matters.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Trade and foreign investment are key elements of our prosperity. In 2019, exports of goods and services accounted for 31% of output, though notably by 2021 this had declined to 27%. In addition, imports accounted for just over 28% of UK demand in both years. Taken together the value of UK trade is close to 60% of GDP.<\/li>\n<li>There are nearly 7 million jobs linked to \u2013 and supported by \u2013 UK exporting activity, which accounts for over 20% of UK employment<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>UK productivity performance has been weak. Work by the Productivity Institute points to the substantial fall in the growth of UK output per hour between 2010-19, with only Italy\u2019s performance out of the G7 economies being worse<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a>. Moving forward, the Resolution Foundation estimates that UK productivity will be 1.3% lower by 2030 than it would have been in the absence of Brexit<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>There is a wide range of empirical evidence showing that trade in goods and services is a potentially important driver of economic growth and productivity change. And when I say \u2018trade\u2019, I am not just referring to exports and exporting more; imports are at least as \u2013 if not more \u2013 important for consumers <em>and<\/em> for firms\u2019 intermediate inputs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So how has the UK been doing?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>By the end of 2021 evidence suggests that UK GDP is 5.2% lower, investment is 13.7% lower, and goods trade is 13.6% lower than if the UK had not left the EU<a href=\"#_ftn5\" name=\"_ftnref5\">[5]<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Imports from the EU have particularly slumped across most sectors, and exports to the EU in certain sectors such as textiles and food products have also declined heavily<a href=\"#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\">[6]<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>There is evidence from trade data and surveys suggesting that the impact on UK trade has been particularly negative for small- and medium-sized enterprises<a href=\"#_ftn7\" name=\"_ftnref7\">[7]<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given that a key Brexit \u2018dividend\u2019 was sovereignty over trade policy, let\u2019s hear more from the candidates on this.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking as a trade economist, if I had my one question to ask the candidates, I would ask \u201cwhat do you want from the UK\u2019s independent trade policy and how will this help the UK?\u201d A poor answer would be to say \u201cmore trade is good\u201d. We need to know why the candidates may consider it to be good and under what circumstances, how to achieve this, and why it could help with the pressing problems faced by UK consumers, workers, firms and regions.<\/p>\n<p>And back to the specific subject of Brexit and whether or not it is done, it is worth remembering two important things. First, and in the immediate short term, the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol is manifestly not resolved, whether or not the proposed Northern Ireland Protocol Bill goes through the UK Parliament. Second, and in the longer term, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU calls for a joint review of the TCA with the possibility of renewal, revision, or termination five years after entry into force of the agreement, and every five years thereafter<a href=\"#_ftn8\">[8]<\/a>. These issues concern the bulk of UK trade and highlight that thinking constructively about UK trade policy is an imperative.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Footnotes<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> The debates took place on Friday 15<sup>th<\/sup> and Sun 17<sup>th<\/sup> July, and included Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Tom Tugendhat<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Source: Data for 2018, Trade in Employment database, OECD, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/sti\/ind\/trade-in-employment.htm\">https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/sti\/ind\/trade-in-employment.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.productivity.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/WP015-Politics-of-Productivity-FINAL-131221.pdf\">https:\/\/www.productivity.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/WP015-Politics-of-Productivity-FINAL-131221.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.resolutionfoundation.org\/app\/uploads\/2022\/06\/The-Big-Brexit_.pdf\">https:\/\/www.resolutionfoundation.org\/app\/uploads\/2022\/06\/The-Big-Brexit_.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer.eu\/publications\/archive\/policy-brief\/2022\/cost-brexit-so-far\">https:\/\/www.cer.eu\/publications\/archive\/policy-brief\/2022\/cost-brexit-so-far<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/publications\/post-brexit-ii-trade-in-goods-and-services\/\">https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/publications\/post-brexit-ii-trade-in-goods-and-services\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref7\" name=\"_ftn7\">[7]<\/a> See the work of Thomas Sampson on trade flows (<a href=\"https:\/\/cep.lse.ac.uk\/pubs\/download\/cp627.pdf\">https:\/\/cep.lse.ac.uk\/pubs\/download\/cp627.pdf<\/a>), and surveys from the British Chambers of Commerce, and the Federation of Small Businesses.<a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref8\">[8]<\/a> See Peter Holmes&#8217; recent blog &#8216;What we can do to fix Brexit and the Irish Border crisis&#8217; (https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/2022\/05\/23\/what-we-can-do-to-fix-brexit-and-the-irish-border-crisis\/)<\/p>\n<p><em>Disclaimer:<\/em><br \/>\n<em>The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex, UK Trade Policy Observatory or Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Republishing guidelines:<\/em><br \/>\n<em>The UK Trade Policy Observatory\u00a0believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement.\u00a0For online use, this should be a link to the original resource on our website. We do not publish under a Creative Commons\u00a0license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share this article: 18 July 2022 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Boris Johnson was elected on the slogan and promise of \u2018Get Brexit Done\u2019. It is perhaps somewhat ironic, then, to see disagreement between the contenders to succeed him as to whether Brexit has actually yet been done.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":378,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[129970,130195],"tags":[96141,147903,147972,147973,123600,147981,123581,123281],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6886"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/378"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6886"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6886\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6895,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6886\/revisions\/6895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.sussex.ac.uk\/uktpo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}