Caterina Mazzilli, ODI Globaland Gonzalo Fanjul, Fundacion por Causa and ODI Europe
With the presentation of his White Paper on 12th May 2025, UK Home Secretary Keir Starmer has been the latest to join the anti-immigration epidemic sweeping across OECD countries. The wide range of measures presented by his government includes a tightening of the language standards required of foreign workers who want to settle in the United Kingdom. It also doubles to 10 the number of years required to obtain permanent residence and raises to a level equivalent to a university degree the minimum qualification required to access all those jobs that are not part of a slim ‘essential occupation list’. Expressions such as ‘island of strangers’ have reminded some of us of the infamous language of British nativist politician Enoch Powell and the most radical measures of recent Conservative governments; but the form and substance of this proposal seem to be inspired more by Donald Trump. The US President also views immigration as a threat to the national economy and has made its control a priority for all federal agencies.
The Labour Party would do well to seek economic guidance outside of national populism. Mass deportations are almost always immoral and often illegal, but for the US they are also proving to be a shot in the foot from a financial point of view. Fear of raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has kept many migrant workers at home, and negative effects are already visible in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. As Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz has pointed out, whether Trump voters like it or not, American prosperity grounds on the labour of those who come from abroad. When they are expelled or are too afraid to go out, they do not work or consume, and the economy weakens. Some estimates predict a reduction in US GDP of between 1.2% and 7.4% by 2028, recalling the effects of similar interventions in the past.To be fair, this is not an easy dilemma. Even without Donald Trump’s violent theatrical ways, many other leaders are faced with the need to make decisions that protect their economies from the effects of ageing and undersupplied labour markets, while promising to tighten border control, increase deportations of migrants without documents and move asylum seekers where they cannot be seen.
How can we get out of this tough spot? Spain may offer some answers. In recent years, this country has cultivated a narrative of welcoming migrants residing in Spain—including those who are undocumented—on which government officials and citizens seem to agree. Comparative research, such as that conducted by ODI Global in 2021, shows that Spanish society maintains more tolerant attitudes toward immigration than our neighbouring countries, and that these attitudes are supported by political discourse. The difference with other cases is that Spain has led by example by relaxing its legislation to improve the social and labour integration of foreign workers. And it has done so comprehensively. Three rounds of legal reforms carried out in the last four years have allowed the government to massively expand work and residence permits for migrants without documents through ordinary regularisation; facilitate family reunification; simplify visa procedures for workers and employers; reactivate existing tools such as the job-seeking visa; and renew the catalogue of occupations for which employers are authorised to hire non-EU workers. At the same time, labour migration programmes – mostly circular or temporary – have been accelerated, including a development perspective that seeks to optimise the impact of such schemes on countries of origin.
A man who was working on a wall in Navalperal de Pinares, Spain. Matteo del Piano for Unsplash
Spain’s performance is by no means perfect. Some of the changes have not yet been implemented or have had undesirable consequences. The popular legislative initiative for the extraordinary regularisation of migrants, supported by more than 600,000 voters, remains is still to be approved by Parliament. What is more alarming is that social organisations and journalistic investigations have been denouncing human rights abuses on the southern border for years, where Spanish policies are as harsh and ineffective as those of its EU neighbours.
Despite this, the set of reforms on migrant labour mobility has contributed to Spain being the best performing economy in the world in 2024. When everyone else is going in the opposite direction, comparatively liberal policies can show the way to stronger national economies and more welcoming societies. The Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz, put this potential into numbers: immigration would increase Spain’s wealth by €17 million (1.3% of GDP). In 2024 alone, the national economy grew by 3.2%, driven by tourism (+7%), agriculture (+7%) and manufacturing (+3.9%), crucial sectors where EU countries have identified urgent labour needs and where immigrants are well represented.
By facilitating regularisation, the government also seeks to protect foreign workers in sectors with informal employment and exposed to organised crime from exploitation. The certain prospect of a demographic winter is a compelling reason for Spain’s reformist stance. The deteriorating demographic context of the EU, the Spanish national population has grown at a rate of 4.2% in the last six years. According to the Labour Force Survey, 468,000 people were included in Social Security as new workers in 2024; of these, only 59,000 were Spanish (native or naturalised). The contributions of new workers are essential to sustaining the country’s welfare, especially considering that, over the next 15 years, seven million contributors will have retired. The ageing population is driving up costs in pensions, healthcare, and dependency, while jeopardising productivity and consumption. In a country that needs between 250,000 and 300,000 new workers per year to sustain its welfare state, the possibility of regularising a million immigrants in three years is pure common sense.
To be clear, neither is migration a silver bullet, nor will Spain be able to overcome the difficulties posed by this historic transition. Access to housing, the sustainability of public services, and harmonious coexistence in neighbourhoods will continue to be major challenges for the state. The economic cycle will change, and migration policy will require adjustments. But for now, a large part of Spanish society and its leaders have decided to address this issue on the basis of political realism and common rights and responsibilities, rather than turning it into a confrontation defined by passport. Reducing collective hysteria and acknowledging the contribution of migrants is the most effective way to escape the political and narrative trap that the far right has so effectively set. The British government is already trapped, but Spain still has the opportunity to offer an alternative to one of the great challenges of our time: ‘shared prosperity’ instead of ‘island of strangers’.
Starmer’s ‘Island of strangers’ takes a page from Trump’s migration policy book. Spain shows a different path is possible
Caterina Mazzilli, ODI Global and Gonzalo Fanjul, Fundacion por Causa and ODI Europe
With the presentation of his White Paper on 12th May 2025, UK Home Secretary Keir Starmer has been the latest to join the anti-immigration epidemic sweeping across OECD countries. The wide range of measures presented by his government includes a tightening of the language standards required of foreign workers who want to settle in the United Kingdom. It also doubles to 10 the number of years required to obtain permanent residence and raises to a level equivalent to a university degree the minimum qualification required to access all those jobs that are not part of a slim ‘essential occupation list’. Expressions such as ‘island of strangers’ have reminded some of us of the infamous language of British nativist politician Enoch Powell and the most radical measures of recent Conservative governments; but the form and substance of this proposal seem to be inspired more by Donald Trump. The US President also views immigration as a threat to the national economy and has made its control a priority for all federal agencies.
The Labour Party would do well to seek economic guidance outside of national populism. Mass deportations are almost always immoral and often illegal, but for the US they are also proving to be a shot in the foot from a financial point of view. Fear of raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has kept many migrant workers at home, and negative effects are already visible in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. As Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz has pointed out, whether Trump voters like it or not, American prosperity grounds on the labour of those who come from abroad. When they are expelled or are too afraid to go out, they do not work or consume, and the economy weakens. Some estimates predict a reduction in US GDP of between 1.2% and 7.4% by 2028, recalling the effects of similar interventions in the past.To be fair, this is not an easy dilemma. Even without Donald Trump’s violent theatrical ways, many other leaders are faced with the need to make decisions that protect their economies from the effects of ageing and undersupplied labour markets, while promising to tighten border control, increase deportations of migrants without documents and move asylum seekers where they cannot be seen.
How can we get out of this tough spot? Spain may offer some answers. In recent years, this country has cultivated a narrative of welcoming migrants residing in Spain—including those who are undocumented—on which government officials and citizens seem to agree. Comparative research, such as that conducted by ODI Global in 2021, shows that Spanish society maintains more tolerant attitudes toward immigration than our neighbouring countries, and that these attitudes are supported by political discourse. The difference with other cases is that Spain has led by example by relaxing its legislation to improve the social and labour integration of foreign workers. And it has done so comprehensively. Three rounds of legal reforms carried out in the last four years have allowed the government to massively expand work and residence permits for migrants without documents through ordinary regularisation; facilitate family reunification; simplify visa procedures for workers and employers; reactivate existing tools such as the job-seeking visa; and renew the catalogue of occupations for which employers are authorised to hire non-EU workers. At the same time, labour migration programmes – mostly circular or temporary – have been accelerated, including a development perspective that seeks to optimise the impact of such schemes on countries of origin.
Spain’s performance is by no means perfect. Some of the changes have not yet been implemented or have had undesirable consequences. The popular legislative initiative for the extraordinary regularisation of migrants, supported by more than 600,000 voters, remains is still to be approved by Parliament. What is more alarming is that social organisations and journalistic investigations have been denouncing human rights abuses on the southern border for years, where Spanish policies are as harsh and ineffective as those of its EU neighbours.
Despite this, the set of reforms on migrant labour mobility has contributed to Spain being the best performing economy in the world in 2024. When everyone else is going in the opposite direction, comparatively liberal policies can show the way to stronger national economies and more welcoming societies. The Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz, put this potential into numbers: immigration would increase Spain’s wealth by €17 million (1.3% of GDP). In 2024 alone, the national economy grew by 3.2%, driven by tourism (+7%), agriculture (+7%) and manufacturing (+3.9%), crucial sectors where EU countries have identified urgent labour needs and where immigrants are well represented.
By facilitating regularisation, the government also seeks to protect foreign workers in sectors with informal employment and exposed to organised crime from exploitation. The certain prospect of a demographic winter is a compelling reason for Spain’s reformist stance. The deteriorating demographic context of the EU, the Spanish national population has grown at a rate of 4.2% in the last six years. According to the Labour Force Survey, 468,000 people were included in Social Security as new workers in 2024; of these, only 59,000 were Spanish (native or naturalised). The contributions of new workers are essential to sustaining the country’s welfare, especially considering that, over the next 15 years, seven million contributors will have retired. The ageing population is driving up costs in pensions, healthcare, and dependency, while jeopardising productivity and consumption. In a country that needs between 250,000 and 300,000 new workers per year to sustain its welfare state, the possibility of regularising a million immigrants in three years is pure common sense.
To be clear, neither is migration a silver bullet, nor will Spain be able to overcome the difficulties posed by this historic transition. Access to housing, the sustainability of public services, and harmonious coexistence in neighbourhoods will continue to be major challenges for the state. The economic cycle will change, and migration policy will require adjustments. But for now, a large part of Spanish society and its leaders have decided to address this issue on the basis of political realism and common rights and responsibilities, rather than turning it into a confrontation defined by passport. Reducing collective hysteria and acknowledging the contribution of migrants is the most effective way to escape the political and narrative trap that the far right has so effectively set. The British government is already trapped, but Spain still has the opportunity to offer an alternative to one of the great challenges of our time: ‘shared prosperity’ instead of ‘island of strangers’.
This post was originally published: Frente a las ‘islas de forasteros’, la prosperidad compartida | Opinión | EL PAÍS
Posted in Migration Comments