11 October 2017
Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and Managing Director of InterAnalysis
Reading the Government’s White Paper on trade, and the Customs Bill on future customs arrangements, together with Monday’s statement from the Prime Minister seemed like a Groundhog day moment. In other words, this is somewhere we have been before – repeatedly.
So let’s recap: Soon after the Brexit referendum, the UK government laid down four red lines: leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ); the ability to have an independent trade policy; restrictions on the mobility of EU workers; and control over budgetary payments to the EU. This has since been serially reaffirmed notably in the February 2017 White Paper on trade, the August 2017 White Paper on customs arrangements, and again repeated in the two White Papers released on Monday 9 October on trade policy and customs arrangements respectively; as well as in the Prime Minister’s statement on the same day. Indeed much of the text in the earlier White Papers reappears almost word for word in what was published on Monday. Groundhog day.
Indeed, on the face of it, the government has been consistent with regard to the red lines. It has repeatedly argued that it did not want to apply the EU’s existing arrangements with non-EU countries, but was seeking a new set of arrangements which would reflect a new ‘special’ arrangement between the UK and the EU. The government has also previously (consistently) indicated that it is possible that we may end up with no deal. Once again that was reaffirmed on Monday in the Customs Bill and by the PM. Groundhog day.
So why does there appear to be so much unease about the UK government’s position and so many column inches devoted to the no-deal contingency planning?
1. As stated earlier “on the face of it”, arguably, the government has been consistent. However, the difficulty is that since the referendum, on an almost continuous basis, there have been highly mixed Brexit messages from different members of the government concerning continued membership or not of the single market, membership of a customs union with the EU (not the EU customs union), the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and even on how EU migration will be handled in future. Added to which, political in-fighting in the Conservative party is worrying for the UK and its trading partners, notably the EU.
2. Monday’s White Papers on Trade Policy and the Customs Bill (re)affirmed the government’s desire for: (a) trade between the UK and the EU to be as frictionless as possible; (b) no hard border between the UK and Ireland; (c) the creation of an independent trade policy. Take the White Paper on trade policy: The trade policy objectives (transparency and inclusivity, rules-based, boosting trade, supporting poverty reduction in developing countries, consistency with the industrial strategy….) are all potentially laudable. However, there are (at least) two reasons for disquiet. First, there is still a considerable lack of practical detail as to how those objectives are to be achieved, with whom, with what effect, as well as what are the challenges and obstacles to be overcome. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, there is a marked lack of prioritisation – which of the objectives is/are the most important and why and where is attention being focused?
3. The Customs Bill has raised the issue of a no-deal scenario much more explicitly than previously. Despite some of the reaction in the press, there really should not be any surprise that the government is preparing for that contingency. It would be irresponsible of the government not to be, and indeed it could be viewed that the Cameron administration was irresponsible in not planning for the vote to leave the EU. There are, however, some legitimate concerns arising from this.
4. The Trade White paper, the Customs Bill call and the Prime Minister’s statement all call for an implementation period. In some respects, this is a step forward. Previously this was referred to as ‘interim arrangements’, and now it is an ‘implementation period’. Yet, an implementation period suggests that there is an agreement which needs implementing. It is not conceivable that such an agreement could be in place. So really this is about a transition period. The Customs Bill suggests that this could be achieved through a “new and time-limited customs union between the UK and the EU Customs Union”. The government has proposed that there should be a ‘no change’ period after March 2019 during which the UK is outside the EU but under the same business conditions. As well as having agreed the final settlement, this would appear to mean signing a new Customs Union agreement with the EU and also negotiating a new equivalent of the EEA also for just 2 years to avoid regulatory barriers. Even if both parties were willing to agree to this, it is far from clear that this is remotely feasible in the timescale. See Holmes, Szyszczak and Winters for a fuller discussion.
It would also require in some way replicating (grandfathering) all the existing free trade agreements which the UK is part of, and where the rules of origin allow the UK to continue to sell in the EU market and in the FTA partner markets on the same terms as before. This too is far from straightforward and involves more than simply cutting and pasting existing agreements. See blog by Gasiorek and Holmes.
5. Closely related to the preceding, the White Paper repeatedly offers stakeholders the opportunity to engage with the governments’ developing trade policy with requests for feedback by early November. Once again, this leads to two concerns.
Having said all of the preceding it is important to remember what the Brexit referendum means: the UK has to negotiate its divorce from the EU, negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, negotiate or re-negotiate all of the existing trade deals that the UK is currently a part of as a member of the EU with over 50 countries, and the UK desires to negotiate new trade deals with new countries.
To put it mildly, this is a very big ask, and it is therefore easy to criticise. Clearly, the government and the civil service have put a lot of work and thought into possible ways forward, and the White paper and Customs Bill are not devoid of sensible objectives, suggestions, or questions. Equally, the government has clearly moved away from the hard-line no-deal is better than a bad deal position and seems more ready than previously to listen to views and to consult. This is important and is to be encouraged. Stakeholders, researchers and analysts have much to offer. The more this can be a dialogue, the better.
The artifice of the Groundhog day story line, was that time was suspended – the characters could live in their repeated reality which gave them time for mistakes, and then to sort out all the problems… leading to a deep and special relationship between the main protagonists. The reality here is that we do not have that artifice, and to use the well-worn phrase, in the Brexit negotiations the clock is ticking. So the lack of change between Monday’s documents and the earlier version is not really reassuring. If anything it is more worrying as it brings the cliff-edge closer. If, in Theresa May’s words, a Canada style free trade agreement
“would represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit none of our economies”,
what does that say for the cliff-edge scenario which appears to be getting closer? This reinforces the argument that there should be serious consideration of the idea of requesting an extension to the Article 50 deadline, controversial as that would be on all sides.
 Paragraph 9.18, “The United Kingdom’s exit from and new partnership with the European Union”
 Paragraph 5.27, “Customs Bill: legislating for the UK’s future customs, VAT, and excise regimes”
The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex or UK Trade Policy Observatory.
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[…] Michael Gasiorek published a blog for the UK Trade Policy Observatory in response to the UK Government’s White Paper published […]
[…] U.K. Trade Policy Observatory economist Michael Gasiorek said Wednesday that it’s unlikely that the two sides will agree on the terms of a transitional period before the deadline. They should seriously consider requesting an extension of the talks beyond March 2019, “controversial as that would be on all sides,” he said in a blog post. […]
Many thanks for this excellent & detailed analysis of the failure to confront reality at the heart of the government’s trade policy. Just one more point: as the US-led rejection of the EU-UK proposal on TRQs shows, advancing a proposal is not the same as securing it. The whole point about trade agreements is that they need the agreement of the other party/ies and there is precious little in the two White Papers to explain why that agreeement should be forthcoming, given the relatively weak negotiating position a Brexit-heading UK has (but seems not to realise!)