17 December 2018
L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
The UKTPO exists to provide independent and objective advice on the economics and law of Brexit and trade policy. The question of whether to hold a ‘second’ referendum is essentially a political one. However, how to organise such a referendum is a technical question on which economists have something to offer. (more…)
Charlotte Humma December 17th, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Mrs May's Deal, No deal, Second referendum
10 December 2018
L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are being presented as a means to end the uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with Europe. But in an explainer for the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe, Professor L Alan Winters argues that this is not the case. Uncertainty will continue regardless of what happens to the Withdrawal Agreement.
Briefly, he argues that, if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament and the EU:
However, neither would rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement resolve the uncertainty. There is a wide range of possible outcomes all but one of which impose serious economic harm and/or require further negotiation. The option that involves least uncertainty and cost would be to remain within the EU; however, trying to achieve that outcome involves both significant political risks and the risk of ‘no deal’ if the attempt failed.
‘Through a glass, darkly’ is biblical – 1 Corinthians 13:12 – and is interpreted as meaning that we can see only imprecisely and via a mirror, but that, in the end, all will become clear. Seems about the best we can hope for.
Read the full article, What are the options for the UK’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit?
Charlotte Humma December 10th, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: backstop, Customs Union, Northern Ireland, political declaration, withdrawal agreement
10 December 2018
L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the Observatory.
Today we are publishing a study of the economic impact of ‘no deal’ and ‘soft’ Brexit scenarios on the 632 Parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain. It shows that calculating the effect of Brexit on the residents in an area gives a very different perspective from the more common calculation based on the jobs in that area.
For example, a ‘no deal’ Brexit would imply a shock equivalent to losing some 42,400 jobs in the parliamentary constituency of Cities of London and Westminster. However, 41,250 of these jobs are held by people who live elsewhere. At the other extreme, Streatham may suffer a loss equivalent to 650 of its jobs, but around 2,250 of Streatham’s residents would lose their employment. (more…)
Charlotte Humma December 10th, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, Employment, Jobs, No deal, parliamentary constituencies
