We have seen significant economic and political shifts in recent years with the Covid-19 pandemic, the escalating climate crisis, the disruptions caused by Brexit in Europe as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continuing to change the global economic and political order. These shifts provide an impetus and opportunity to open new and old debates about the role of international trade. This interdisciplinary conference seeks to bring together economists, lawyers, political scientists, international relations scholars, and policy experts to consider some of the core emerging issues, as well as the latest evidence and thinking on the consequences for sustainable international trade, and trade policy.

PROGRAMME

• 9.15 – 9.45 Registration & Coffee (30 minutes)
• 9.45 – 10.00 Welcome and introduction (10 minutes) – Emily Lydgate (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)

10.00-11.00 – Session 1: Post-Brexit trade – Chair: Camilla Jensen (UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex and Roskilde University)

• 10.00 – 10.20 UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit – Thomas Sampson (London School of Economics and Political Science)
• 10.20 – 10.40 The Welfare Effects of Leaving the EU – Nicolo Tamberi (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)
• 10.40 – 11.00 Q&A

11.00 – 11.30 – Coffee Break

11.30-12.30 – Session 2: Climate and Trade – Chair: Alasdair Smith (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)

• 11.30 – 11.50 From unilateral carbon border measures to plurilateral arrangements: the road towards climate clubs – Giulia Claudia Leonelli (Birkbeck, University of London)
• 11.50 – 12.10 Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: aggregate and within-coalition results – Wusheng Yu and Francesco Clora (University of Copenhagen)
• 12.10 – 12.30 Q&A

12.30 – 13.30 – Lunch

13.30-15.00 – Session 3: Digital Trade – Chair: Ingo Borchert (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)

• 13.30 – 13.50 Of Bytes and Trade: quantifying the impact of digitalisation on trade – Javier Lopez Gonzalez (OECD)
• 13.50 – 14.10 The UK’s joining the CPTPP and digital trade policy – Towards accommodations and conflicts? – Minako Morita-Jaeger (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)
• 14.10 – 14.30 Wicked Problems Might Inspire Greater Data Sharing – Susan Ariel Aaronson (George Washington University, US)
• 14.30 – 15.00 Q&A

15.00 – 15.30 – Coffee Break

15.30-16.30 – Session 4: Sustainable Trade – Chair: Amrita Saha (Institute of Development Studies)

• 15.30 – 15.50 Supporting sustainability in agri-food production in Vietnam: FTAs, regulation or voluntary standards? – Camille Vallier (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)
• 15.50 – 16.10 The Effect of SDG-related Provisions in PTAs on SDGs – Ruby Acquah and Mattia di Ubaldo (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex)
• 16.10 – 16.30 Q&A

16.30-17.15 ROUNDTABLE: What role for FTAs in trade policy? – Chair: Michael Gasiorek (UK Trade Policy Observatory/University of Sussex). Panel: Emily Lydgate (UK Trade Policy Observatory), David Henig (European Centre for International Political Economy), Ian Shepherd (Department for International Trade, UK Government)

View our full conference programme here.

The scope and fragility of supply chains in international trade have come under scrutiny. The COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have raised concerns over the resilience of supply chains, whereas environmental problems highlight the need for sustainable supply chains.

Geopolitical shocks, the digitization of processes in supply chain management, and an increasing public concern about the distributional impact of trade and globalization add further complexity to the discussion of what supply chains could or should look like. Policymakers feel the need to design regulatory responses to these challenges, yet there is a danger that governments may take an inappropriate ‘pick ‘n’ mix’ approach to policies. In particular, the pretext of supply chain resilience could be used as a get-out clause for a wide range of industrial policy interventions.

This event draws on insights from a Briefing Paper and will discuss ways to achieve more international cooperation and coordination, so as to address supply chain vulnerabilities and avoid disguised protectionism. Held under the Chatham House Rule, this event will be in-person only and will not be recorded to encourage as free and open an exchange of ideas as possible.

Please register here

University of Sussex will use your registration data in accordance with its privacy policy which can be found here: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/about/website/privacy-and-cookies/privacy . University of Sussex will share your name, job title, organization name and email address with Chatham House, who will use your details in line with its privacy policy which can be found here: https://www.chathamhouse.org/privacy-and-cookie-policies.

Presenters:
Camilla Jensen, Senior Research Fellow, UKTPO

Chair:
Ingo Borchert, Deputy Director, UKTPO

Discussant:

Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House

This webinar will consider how the implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and EU has impacted on UK businesses. William Bain will discuss feedback from BCC members as to how they have been affected; Anna Jerzewska will share her insights from offering detailed advice to companies dealing with the new trading arrangements, and Michael Gasiorek will present analysis based on the most up-to-date data of the impact on UK exports and imports since January 2021. Understanding the impacts of the TCA is important in its own right, but also in the face of the ongoing dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the potential suspension of some or all of the TCA should the dispute escalate.

Presenters:
Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex
William Bain, Head of Trade Policy, British Chambers of Commerce
Anna Jerzewska, Director of Trade and Borders Consultancy and an Associate Fellow of the UKTPO

Chair:
Mattia Di Ubaldo, Research Fellow in the Economics of the European Trade Policy, University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO

View the full programme here

Our conference this year is explicitly intended to be interdisciplinary with an exciting mix of papers from the fields of economics, law and international business with a range of excellent speakers and discussants. See below for the provisional programme.

Day 1, Tuesday 2 November 2021

Time	Session	Presenter	Discussant
13.00 – 13.15	Welcome and Introduction:	Michael Gasiorek Director, UKTPO	–
13.15 – 13.55	Consolidation or fragmentation of executive power? Brexit, food law and the UK’s search for a post-EU identity	Emily Lydgate & Chloe Anthony (Sussex)	Viviane Gravey (QUB)
14.00 – 14.40	UK financial agricultural support after EU exit – what powers for the devolved administrations?	Ludivine Petetin (Cardiff)	tbc
Break
14.50 -15.30	Globalisation and Market Power	Giammario Impulitti & Fahad Kazmi (Nottingham)	Dennis Novy (Warwick)
15.35 – 16.15	Impact of the EU-UK TCA on UK trade & UK regions	Michael Gasiorek & Nicolo Tamberi (Sussex)	Thomas Sampson (LSE)
Break
16.25 – 17.05	Deep services agreements and their effect on trade and VA	Ingo Borchert & Mattia di Ubaldo (Sussex)	Lucian Cernat (EU Commission)
17.10 – 17.20	Concluding remarks	Emily Lydgate, Deputy Director, UKTPO	–

Day 2, Wednesday 3 November 2021

13.00 – 13.05	Welcome and introduction	Ingo Borchert, Deputy Director, UKTPO
13.05 – 13.45	Non-trade issues in PTAs and FDI	Mattia di Ubaldo & Michael Gasiorek (Sussex)	Max Mendez Parra (ODI)
13.50 – 14.30	FDI, Value Chains and Local Economic Development in Africa	Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo (EUI)	Cosimo Beverelli (WTO)
Break
14.45 – 15.25	Identifying emergent supply chain logics during disruptive geopolitical events: A study of Brexit, the US-China trade war and COVID-19	Sam Roscoe (Sussex)	Sam Lowe (CER)
15.30 – 16.10	Ensuring more inclusive trade – the case of labour standards in the global garment supply chain in times of Covid-19	Samantha Velluti (Sussex)	James Harrison (Warwick)
Break
16.20 – 17.20	Roundtable: What does an inclusive trade policy mean and how to achieve it?	Chair:	Michael Gasiorek (Sussex)
		Panel:	L. Alan Winters (Sussex) Dan Wincott (Cardiff) Richard Price (Dep’t for International Trade) Ruth Bergan (Trade Justice Movement)
17:20-17:30	Closing Remarks	Michael Gasiorek, Director, UKTPO	–

See the full programme here

We very much hope you will be able to join us.
For those of you who cannot attend and are interested in any of the sessions, we will be recording the webinars and will send out links to those on our mailing list.  The panel discussion will not be recorded and will be held under Chatham House rule.

Consolidation or fragmentation of executive power? Brexit, food law and the UK’s search for a post-EU identity

UK financial agricultural support after EU exit – what powers for the devolved administrations?

Globalisation and market power

Impact of the EU-UK Trade & Cooperation Agreement on UK trade and UK regions

Deep services agreements and their effect on trade and value-added

Non-trade issues in preferential trade agreements and foreign direct investment

Foreign direct investment, value chains and local economic development in Africa

Identifying emergent supply chain logics during disruptive geopolitical events: A study of Brexit, the US-China trade war and COVID-19

Ensuring more inclusive trade – the case of labour standards in the global garment supply chain in times of COVID-19

Speakers:
Sam Lowe, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform
George Riddell, Director of Trade Strategy, EY, London

Speakers:

• Emily Lydgate, Senior Lecturer in Law, Deputy Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex
• Minako Morita Jaeger, Policy Research Fellow, UKTPO; Senior Research Fellow in International Trade, University of Sussex

Discussant:
David Henig, Director, the UK Trade Policy Project, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)

Chair:
Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

The UK’s free trade agreements are currently being pitched as win-win, but trade-offs are involved. Regulatory principles in any free trade agreement can constrain domestic policy and impact on domestic outcomes, which may impact on what can subsequently be agreed to with other partners in future FTAs.

In this event we discuss the UK’s strategic choice to accede to CPTPP as part of a larger symbolic move away from the EU and its regulatory model. We examine the implications for domestic regulatory strategy and the UK’s future FTA negotiations, with regards to food standards, and data privacy. There are clear consequences for domestic outcomes and how they align with domestic objectives, which, in turn requires greater clarity and transparency about domestic objectives from the UK government.

This event will be a discussion of two recently published UKTPO Briefing Papers:

• CPTPP and agri-food regulation: Crossing the EU-exit rubicon?
• Accessing CPTPP without a national digital regulatory strategy? – Hard policy challenges for the UK.

Register here

Speaker:

• Susan Ariel Aaronson, Research Professor and Director of the Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub at George Washington University and Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation

Discussant:

• Nicolás Schubert, Senior Policy Adviser, Digital Economy, Undersecretariat of International Economic Affairs, Chile

Moderator:

• Ingo Borchert, Deputy Director UKTPO

Every time we go online, we are taking a leap of faith as we trust that the firms that provide us with goods and services will also protect our personal data. However, as the proliferation of cybercrime and hacks demonstrates, the internet was not designed to sustain trust.

Policymakers have long been trying to negotiate a common and suitable approach to govern cross-border data flows.  Yet the ensuing e-commerce/digital trade agreements generally share several elements that make it difficult to effectively enforce public policy goals across different jurisdictions, raise compliance costs for business, and are unlikely to build user trust.

Prof Susan Aaronson will argue that trade policymakers must pay closer attention to users’ concerns if they truly want to achieve “data free flow with trust.”  She will specifically discuss the cases of internet shutdowns and the spread of disinformation, and will make several suggestions for improving international data governance. Nicolás Schubert will offer comments from his distinguished career as a trade negotiator and lawyer.  Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions.

Please register here

With record carbon prices causing EU industry outcry, the EU Parliament has recently voted to extend EU pricing to imported products through a so-called Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA). The UK, Canada and US are also understood to be among other countries considering some form of BCAs or related border measures.

In the lead-up to the G7, where Boris Johnson has suggested BCAs may feature on the agenda, this webinar will focus on what is driving the interest in BCAs and significant outstanding questions about how BCAs could be designed and applied. It will also explore questions around the potential consequences of BCAs, for climate and for trade goals, and for international cooperation on both fronts.

With respect to design, BCA presents a policy trilemma between the goals of environmental ambition, technical feasibility and fairness. This trilemma means that there is likely to be no perfect solution for BCA design, but rather trade-offs between goals.

The upcoming G7 and COP, both hosted by the UK, could provide an opportunity to make progress on important questions about international cooperation on BCAs. But there are also significant risks if the topic is mishandled. These questions include: what implications BCAs will have for trading partners, including developing countries? What kinds of transition mechanisms, exemptions or complementary cooperation are needed? How much are BCAs likely to lever or incentivize climate action and in which sectors and economies? And, how could the focus on BCAs influence international trade cooperation more broadly, including on environmental topics and at the WTO?

Chair: 

Creon Butler, Research Director, Trade, Investment and New Governance Models; Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

Presentation:

Emily Lydgate, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Law at the University of Sussex; Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Discussants:

Carolyn Deere Birkbeck, Associate Fellow, Chatham House; Director, Forum on Trade, Environment & the SDGs, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies

Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex; Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

To be followed by Q&A with the audience.

This event is focused on ‘Rules of Origin’ and will look at the practicalities and applications for importers and exporters brought to bear by the new UK-EU Trade Deal. Due to limited places and high demand for the previous event we advise early booking to avoid disappointment.

Chair:
James Martin, Director of Policy, British Chambers of Commerce.

Speakers:
Professor Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
Dr Anna Jerzewska, Director, Trade and Borders Consultancy
Paul Wrighting, Trade Training Manager, British Chambers of Commerce.

On the 30 December 2020 at the end of the EU Transition Period, the UK and EU signed a crucial Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

This interactive and engaging webinar will explore what has been agreed, to what extent have the UK’s negotiating objectives been realised, and will discuss the implications for the economy, for businesses and for people going forward.

The event is being held as a joint webinar with the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) and will be chaired by Prof. Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UKTPO. He will be joined by:

• Prof. L. Alan Winters, Founding Director of the UKTPO
• Suren Thiru, Head of Economics, British Chambers of Commerce
• Dr Anna Jerzewska, Director, Trade and Borders Consultancy

To contain the COVID-19 pandemic and protect susceptible populations, most countries imposed stringent lockdown measures in the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, economic activity contracted dramatically on a global scale. In this webinar, Francesco Grigoli will present research from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that dissects the nature of the economic crisis in the first seven months of the pandemic. He will examine the economic impacts of lockdowns and voluntary social distancing, and consider the uneven effects of lockdown measures, which are found to have a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. The webinar will conclude with a discussion and Q&A.

• Speaker: Francesco Grigoli, Economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the International Monetary Fund’s Research Department and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University
• Chair: Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex
• Discussant: L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Register here

Trade has shaped society for centuries and continues to do so. It’s not just important for prosperity and economic growth, but how we relate to others and what impact we have on the world around us.

Our interactive fun quiz, hosted by a Professor and student of economics at the University of Sussex will help you to find out how trade and trade policy affect your future prospects, the wider economy, environment and international relations.

You will also get a chance to win either a £100 voucher or one of two £50 vouchers just for turning up and joining in!

This quiz is for young people (you can also be young at heart!) with an interest in what is going on in the world at the moment. It will focus on some of the challenges we are now facing, such as: on-going technological change, the UK leaving the EU, Covid-19, and the green agenda to name a few.

Join in, find out more and get a chance to win!

Winners will be announced on 11th November via UKTPO’s Twitter: @UK_TPO

Register here

A expert panel discussion on joint analysis of new tariff agreements by the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO), the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and the Center for Global Development (CGD.

Chair:

• Ian Mitchell, Co-Director of Development Cooperation in Europe and Senior Policy Fellow

Presenters:

• Mohammed A. Razzaque, Research Director, Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh
• Emily Jones, Director of Global Economic Governance Programme, University of Oxford
• Mattia di Ubaldo, Research Fellow, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this year’s conference was held virtually in the form of two webinars.

There were four presentations and two roundtable discussions over the course of two afternoons. Catch up on the sessions below:

Tuesday 15 September

Session One: Firm Export Responses to Tariff Hikes

Presenter: Facundo Albornoz Crespo, University of Nottingham

Discussant: Ingo Borchert, University of Sussex and UKTPO

Chair: Michael Gasiorek, University of Sussex and UKTPO

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Session Two: Dynamic benchmarking: foundation for a new generation of Trade, Environment and Climate Agreements?

Presenter: Emily Lydgate, University of Sussex and UKTPO

Discussant: Stephanie Switzer, Strathclyde Law School

Chair: Femi Amao, University of Sussex

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Session Three: Chatham House Special Session – Trade and Climate Change in the context of COP26

Panellists: Jodie Keane, Overseas Development Institute; Rohinton P. Medhora, Centre for International Governance Innovation

Chair: Creon Butler, Chatham House

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Wednesday 16 September

Session Four: Impact of Brexit Uncertainty on UK trade after the Referendum

Presenter: Michael Gasiorek, University of Sussex and UKTPO

Discussant: Bernard Hoekman, European University Institute

Chair: Ingo Borchert, University of Sussex and UKTPO

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Session Five: The political economy of protection in GVCs: Evidence from Chinese micro data

Presenter: Anna Maria Mayda, Georgetown University

Discussant: Mattia Di Ubaldo, University of Sussex and UKTPO

Chair: Alasdair Smith, University of Sussex and UKTPO

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Session Six: Roundtable Discussion – Trade and Economic Cohesion after Brexit

Panellists:
Dr Katy Hayward, Queen’s University Belfast
Professor Anand Menon, King’s College London
Professor Graeme Roy, University of Strathclyde and Fraser of Allander Institute
Dr Thomas Sampson, London School of Economics

Chair: Professor L. Alan Winters, CB, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

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Conclusion: Tribute to L. Alan Winters and the Future of UKTPO

Download the conference programme for more details

As well as being the first major economy to commit to a net-zero emissions by 2050 climate target, the UK also has ambitious trade policy goals of providing multilateral leadership and concluding major new trade agreements. In this event, we examine the UK policies required to achieve net-zero and how they can be integrated into UK trade strategy, and consider wider implications of net-zero targets for the international trade system.
Speaker: Dr Emily Lydgate, Senior Lecturer in Law; Fellow, UKTPO, University of Sussex
Discussant: Professor Andy Jordan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia
Chair: Professor Jim Rollo, Fellow, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Register here

The UK’s draft text for the Free Trade Agreement with the EU indicates a vision of where the Government wishes to take the UK’s trade relationship with the EU. In some areas, the UK is unwilling to agree such deep integration as the Political Declaration foresaw and which the EU is seeking. However, in other areas, the UK is asking for more integration than the EU ordinarily offers partners in simple FTAs. The speakers will present and discuss the details of these extensions and the implications for the negotiation process.

Chair:

• L. Alan Winters, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory; Professor of Economics, University of Sussex

Speakers:

• Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex; Fellow, UKTPO
• Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UKTPO, University of Sussex
• Sam Lowe, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Reform

Please Register Here

As nations scrambled this year to source medical supplies – equipment, drugs and personal protective equipment – 89 governments imposed 154 restrictions on exports and 104 governments introduced 154 reforms easing imports. In addition, there is increasing talk about reshoring production or moving it closer to home. This is not the way to increase global supplies of necessary goods, nor to ensure their equitable distribution.

This panel of experts from academia and a representative from the medical supplies sector will discuss how trade in medicines and medical supplies can be facilitated, and how trade policy can contribute to public health. The panel will discuss the possibilities of linking import liberalization measures, such as tariff cuts, with constraints on export restrictions of medical supplies, including expanding the coverage and membership of the WTO Pharmaceutical Agreement.

Introduced by:

• L. Alan Winters, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex

Speakers:

• Simon Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St. Gallen, Founder and Director of Global Trade Alert
• Trevor Gunn, Vice President International Relations, Medtronic
• Henrik Isakson, Director, Trade Policy, Confederation of Swedish Enterprise

Book your place here

The unprecedented economic crisis triggered by the outbreak of Covid-19 is already having dramatic effects on world trade and appears very likely to trigger lasting changes to the world trading system, regardless of how the next phase of “opening up” from lock downs progresses.

Against this background the Global Economy and Finance Programme at Chatham House and the UK Trade Policy Observatory at University of Sussex co-hosted a series of three virtual expert round tables in May which will explore how world trade and the world trading system are likely to be changed by the crisis in both the short- and longer- term.

The impact of COVID-19 on global trade so far

Tuesday, 12 May 2020 | 09.30 – 10.30 BST

• Simon Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development at the University of St. Gallen, and Co-Director of the CEPR Programme on International Trade and Regional Economics.
• Allie Renison, Head of EU and Trade Policy, Institute of Directors (IoD).
• Chair: Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House.

What could COVID-19 mean for the global trading system?

Monday, 18 May 2020 | 12.00-13.00 BST

• Gabriel Siles-Brugge, Associate Professor in Public Policy and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick.
• Alan Beattie, Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme, and world trade editor of the Financial Times.
• Beatrice Kilroy- Nolan, Partner, Flint Global.
• Chair: Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex.

What will COVID-19 mean for the participation of developing countries in the global trading system in the short and long run?

Friday, 29 May 2020 | 12.00-13.00 BST

• Amrita Bahri, Assistant Professor of Law, ITAM; Co-Chair for Mexico, WTO Chair Program; International Trade Centre.
• L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex.
• Maximiliano Mendez-Parra, Senior Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
• Chair: Bernard Hoekman, Professor and Director, Global Economics, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, University of Florence.

The UK government’s public consultation on tariffs closes on 5 March. This meeting will discuss the proposals floated in the consultation document and consider their effects on tariff and protection levels, prices and variety. It will also place tariff policy in the wider context of trade policy, including the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU and the USA.

Speakers
Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, UKTPO Fellow, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis
Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Discussants
Allie Renison, Head of Europe and Trade Policy at the Institute of Directors
Maximiliano Mendez-Parra, Senior Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute

Chair
Professor Jim Rollo, Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House; Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory.

This general election is very much due to Brexit – or rather the failure of getting a deal through Parliament. Whoever wins the election will have little time to get their strategy for Brexit up and running to meet the latest Brexit deadline of 31 January 2020. So what are the parties policies for the UK’s future trade?

This event will present and discuss what the five main parties’ manifestos imply for future UK trade. Each manifesto will be presented and analysed by a UKTPO fellow, all to be followed by a Q&A session.

Speakers
Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis; Fellow, UKTPO
Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UKTPO, University of Sussex
Prof Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO; Associate Fellow, Chatham House
Nicolo Tamberi, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Please register to attend

At the moment, uncertainty seems to be the only certainty with Brexit, especially now with a General Election looming. If you want to know more about how the different Brexit options could affect you and your family – from the food on your plate, your job security, business regulations and so much more – just come along and ask our experts.

We will welcome you with a glass of wine and some nibbles as you settle down to listen to short interviews with our UKTPO experts. You will also have the opportunity to ask, and get impartial answers to your questions about the impact of Brexit on your life.

We will run a rolling programme, so just pitch up and stay for as long as you wish!

This event is part of the Economic & Social Research Council’s Festival of Social Science

We are delighted to invite you to our second annual UK Trade Policy Observatory conference.  This year’s conference will focus on the legal areas of trade policy:

New Dimensions in International Trade Law

The following papers will be presented:

Blockchain: Creating and Eliminating Trade in Services
Presented by: Dr Weiwei Zhang, International Trade Analyst, Sidley
Discussant: Dr Gabriel Gari , Reader in International Economic Law, QMUL

China’s role in the international trading system
Presented by: Dr Ping Wang, Assistant Professor in Law, University of Nottingham
Discussant: Dr Femi Amao, Reader in Law, University of Sussex

Official Export Support – compliance and competition concerns
Presented by: Dr Kamala Dawar, Fellow UKTPO; Senior Lecturer in Commercial Law
Discussant: Lauge Poulsen, Associate Professor in International Political Economy, UCL

Strategic litigation and health regulation: implications for International Economic Law
Presented by: Fiona Smith, Professor in International Economic Law, University of Leeds
Discussant: Federico Ortino, Reader of International Economic Law, KCL

Development, labour standards and sustainability in trade agreements
Presented by: Dr Clair Gammage, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Bristol
Discussant: Dr Lorand Bartels, Reader in International Law; Fellow, Trinity House, University of Cambridge

Retaining versus reforming EU food safety legislation: selected issues for a US-UK trade negotiation
Presented by: Dr Emily Lydgate, Fellow UKTPO; Senior Lecturer in Environmental Law
Discussant: Dr Tom West; UK Environment Lead, ClientEarth

The conference will conclude with a panel discussion and Q&A on

Current trade tensions.

Chair:
Dr Anna Jerzewska, Free trade agreements and trade facilitation specialist

Panellists:
Dr Lorand Bartels, Reader in International Law; Fellow, Trinity House, University of Cambridge
Laura Bannister, Senior adviser on EU-UK trade, Trade Justice Movement
Peter Holmes, Fellow, UKTPO; Reader in Economics, University of Sussex
Andrew Hood, Partner, Regulatory & Trade, FieldFisher LLP

Please register here

Chair:

Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Panel:

• Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex; Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
• Dr Minako Morita-Jaeger, Fellow, UKTPO, University of Sussex
• Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UKTPO, University of Sussex

The political turmoil over when and how to exit the European Union has pushed aside the substantive debate over the shape of post-Brexit UK trade policy.  Panellists from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) will discuss challenges and opportunities of designing UK trade policy.

Important cornerstones include:

1. The fact that UK is the most services-oriented of all the major economies and services trade policy is hardly ever mentioned.  Ingo Borchert will outline recent trends in services trade and how the UK could (or should) respond in formulating a post-Brexit policy.
2. The UK is working very hard to roll-over the trade agreements to which it is currently party as an EU member-state; one of the most important is the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.  Minako Morita Jaeger will discuss the forces shaping this agreement and in particular the interests and role of international business in formulating it.
3. UK policy is to adopt the EU’s schedule of bound tariffs, but in March 2019 it announced a set of temporary more liberal applied rates to take effect in the event of ‘No deal’. Julia Magntorn Garrett will discuss the structure of this tariff schedule, its motivations and whether it would actually be implemented by the current government.

The panel discussion will be followed by a light reception in the hall of Petal Two.

Please register here

Chair:
Prof Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO; Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Panel:

• Prof Jagjit S. Chadha, Director, NIESR
• Dr Kamala Dawar, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex; Fellow, UKTPO
• Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis; Fellow, UKTPO

In the five months since the last extension of the Brexit deadline, nothing has been resolved. The questions about the UK’s trading relationship with the EU remain as open as before, as do those about what sort of relationship it should seek with other partners. The world has not stood still, however, and so the UKTPO is convening another panel to consider constructive ways of moving forward.

The panel will discuss potential trajectories for UK trade policy, followed by a question and answer session.

Please register here

Speakers:
Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, UKTPO Fellow, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis
Julia Magntorn, Research Officer, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Discussant:
Torsten Bell, Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation

Chair:
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Economists have long argued, and with good justification, that international trade brings overall benefits to economies. However, increasing trade is likely to create losers as well as winners. As the UK prepares to leave the EU and have an independent trade policy it is important to understand how future trade agreements, or policy changes, may affect economic outcomes such as prices, productivity and output, and through these, individuals and regions.

In this meeting we will discuss the UKTPO’s latest Briefing Paper, ‘Winners and Losers from International Trade: What do we know and what are the implications for policy?’ providing a conceptual background of how trade changes may result in winners and losers – be these consumers, workers, regions, or industries, and giving an overview of what the empirical evidence tells us about how developed economies have adjusted to changes in trade.  Making good (trade) policy in this context is complicated. We consider potential policy responses that could help losers from international trade adjust, and ensure that the winners can take advantage of the new opportunities created by trade liberalisation.

Please register here

Speakers:
Dr Minako Morita-Jaeger, Associate Fellow UKTPO, University of Sussex
Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Discussant:
John Cooke, Chairman of the Liberalisation of Trade in Services Committee, TheCityUK

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo, Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House; Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory

Overview:
The debate on the UK’s future trade deals with non-EU countries has been mainly focused on rolling over the EU’s existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). What is missing is a far-sighted strategy in the case that the UK manages an orderly Brexit and has a transition period until the end of 2020. If not just rolling over, what would be the possible options?

In the case of a future UK-Korea deal, the UK could potentially negotiate a new FTA built on the Korea-EU FTA (KorEU) or negotiate a completely new FTA modeled on the Korea-US FTA (KORUS). Our comparative analysis of KorEU and KORUS in services reveals that the two agreements took very different approaches for services trade liberalisation. Both achieved “GATS-plus” liberalisation commitments from Korea. KORUS seems to have achieved slightly more than KorEU. However, KORUS is more complicated and less transparent than KorEU. It also contains more WTO-inconsistent features. The KORUS option would enable the UK to better pursue its own specific needs since it would not be directly bound by KorEU. On the other hand, the WTO-inconsistent aspects of KORUS would need to be avoided, based on a clear vision of UK’s contribution towards the future multilateral trading system. Either way, the UK would face two stumbling blocks: the UK’s lack of negotiating power and the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses in KorEU and KORUS (and other FTAs involving Korea). Whatever the scenario, the UK Government is urged to build its trade negotiating capacities to cope with these challenges.

Please register here

Speakers:

Dr Emily Lydgate, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex; Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO)
Ffion Thomas, Regulatory Compliance Professional

Discussant:

Alexandra Sinclair, Fellow in Brexit, Parliament and the Rule of Law, Public Law Project

Chair:

Professor Jim Rollo, Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House; Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO)

Overview:

While the future of our relationship with the EU remains uncertain, an important element of the UK’s preparation has already been undertaken, with the development of a large new body – over 10,000 pages – of legislation that converts EU legislation into UK domestic law. Though presented by the UK government as limited to technical rather than policy changes, the process has required the UK to develop an array of new procedures and competencies. As a result, in contrast to the ‘legal lock’ of the EU, much of UK law – in particular relating to environmental protection – will take the form of secondary legislation to which the government can make future changes relatively easily.

In this event, the speakers will take stock of the implications of this process focusing in particular on statutory instruments (SIs) relating to pesticides. The speakers will note that these SIs consolidate powers to UK ministers to amend, revoke and make pesticide legislation and both weaken enforcement arrangements and the requirement to obtain scientific advice.

Please register here

Chair:
Prof Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO; Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Panel:
Chris Giles, Economics Editor, Financial Times
Dr Emily Lydgate, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex; Fellow, UKTPO
Prof L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex; Director, UKTPO

Overview:
No-one knows yet what is going to happen in regards to Brexit. But what is clear is that we have only a few weeks left to sort things out. And whatever direction Brexit takes will pose serious questions about, and challenges for, the UK’s future trade policy.

The panel will discuss potential trajectories for UK trade policy, followed by an open question and answer session with the panel and other Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Please register here

Speakers:
Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics, University of Sussex Fellow, UKTPO
Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit; Fellow, UKTPO
Discussant:
Paul Swinney, Director of Policy and Research, Centre for Cities
Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO; Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Since the EU referendum, there has been a growing interest in the reintroduction of free zones in the United Kingdom. Those advocating free zones believe that they will help to boost British trade after Brexit and promote economic growth. Although there are potential benefits and savings that businesses can accrue from simplified customs procedures, and relief on customs duties and tariff inversion, the authors explain that such benefits will be very limited in the UK context.

The US experience is not very illuminating: whilst there are many jobs in their free zones, there is little evidence how many are net creations and the main purpose of the US free zones appears to be to supply the domestic market without having to pay high tariffs on imported inputs.

While there is a scope for free zones shaping an export-oriented place-based regional development programme, policymakers should devise measures that (i) counteract possible diversion of economic activity from elsewhere, and (ii) offer a wider set of incentives than just free zones, while keeping within our WTO and any ‘level playing field’ obligations that arise from our trade agreements.

Please register here

In this joint seminar, our speakers will discuss the findings of two papers that look at the impact of different Brexit deals on the structure of the UK economy.  The Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK negotiators is now known and there will be an opportunity to discuss its possible effects.

Brexit and manufacturing jobs by Dr. Michael Gasiorek, Dr. Ilona Serwicka and Prof. Alasdair Smith, UKTPO (University of Sussex)
This paper investigates the effect of Brexit on the manufacturing sector, looking specifically at the detailed sectors that are most vulnerable to Brexit.  Preliminary findings, based on partial equilibrium modelling, suggest that high-tech and medium-high tech manufacturing sectors are more at risk of a significant decline in domestic production than medium and medium-low tech sectors.

The Sectoral Implications of Brexit by Dr. Garry Young (NIESR)
This paper will investigate the effect of Brexit on the economy more broadly, including the service sectors using a general equilibrium macroeconomic modelling approach.   Findings from that approach suggest that manufacturing may be shielded from the effects of a hard-Brexit as exchange rate depreciation shifts the burden of adjustment to consumer-facing industries.

Places are limited, therefore to ensure attendance please RSVP as soon as possible.

Please register here

or call Luca on 020 7654 1931

Please note: Due to the nature of NIESR’s Grade II listed building, we are unable to provide step-free access to our facilities and the Library is not currently accessible to wheelchair users, or those with limited mobility. We apologise for the inconvenience. Please do let us know in advance how we can assist your visit to the Institute – we are happy to discuss alternative arrangement in order to access our events.

Speakers:    Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex
Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant: Cllr Garry Wall, Leader, Mid Sussex District Council and Chair of the Greater Brighton Economic Board

Chair:           Christina Ewbank, CEO and Past President of Eastbourne unLtd Chamber of Commerce

Overview

A ‘no deal’ Brexit could lead to an employment loss of around 39,000 jobs in Hampshire and Sussex, this is according to a new study by researchers at the UK Trade Policy Observatory, who analysed the impact of Brexit on employment across the 34 parliamentary constituencies within Hampshire and Sussex.

 In the UK, South East England is the region most heavily engaged in cross-border trade. In 2017, the South East exported £45.3bn worth of goods and £34bn worth of services – and nearly a half of these exports were destined for the EU. This large value of cross-border trade, with high exposure to trade with the EU, means that a ‘no deal’ Brexit could be particularly disruptive to the South East of England’s economy.

 After allowing for the fact that people often live and work in different places, we estimate that the shock to residents of Hampshire and Sussex could be equivalent to the loss of about 43,000 jobs. The research suggests that constituencies such as Aldershot, Eastleigh and Brighton Pavilion may be among those most heavily impacted.

 Given that Brexit decisions will ultimately be taken on the floor of the House of Commons, this study will provide a base from which Hampshire and Sussex MPs can start to assess the impact of Brexit on their constituents.

Please register here

This event is being held to launch the UKTPO’s two latest briefing papers:

• Briefing Paper 24: ‘UK’s future services trade deals with non-EU countries: A reality check’
• Briefing Paper 25: ‘Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators’

Speakers:

• Dr Minako Morita Jaeger
• Julia Magntorn

Discussant:

• Christophe Bondy, Special Counsel, Cooley LLP

Chair:

• Professor Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO, University of Sussex

Overview

This meeting will provide a realistic view of what trade agreements in services can really offer. The UK government has high expectations about future services trade deals with non-EU countries. However, in practice, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) typically only provide greater legal certainty about current applied policies rather than bringing about actual trade liberalisation in services.

Based on other countries’ experiences, the UK government will face several significant challenges and complexities in negotiating services FTAs with non-EU countries. For example, services trade negotiations are all about regulations, but the domestic authorities responsible for regulation are typically risk averse (it’s their job!). They are usually not well set-up for international collaboration and see little benefit from it in terms of their own objectives. To make progress on FTAs, the UK government will need to encourage many bodies across government to engage in the negotiations. Second, the UK has little to offer to its FTA partners because, except for Mode 4 (movement of natural persons), which is highly sensitive, UK services markets are already de facto pretty open.

A third complexity is that the UK’s bargaining power will be limited by the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses for services policies that exist in several of the EU’s existing FTAs. These mean that any concessions that partners could offer to the UK may have to be extended ‘for free’ to the EU (an economy six times larger than the UK); in addition, the EU will be discouraged from offering the UK generous terms because these will have to be extended to countries like Japan and Canada.

Overall, therefore, it is not realistic to expect that future trade deals with non-EU countries will be able to recoup the losses of services trade that the UK will incur by leaving the European Single Market.

The meeting will be based on two new Briefing Papers from the UKTPO:

Briefing Paper 24: UK’s future services trade deals with non-EU countries: A reality check explains why it is so difficult to achieve actual liberalisation in service negotiations and what FTAs, in practice, can offer. The Paper then discusses the major factors that diminish the UK’s future FTA partners’ incentives for making concessions.

Briefing Paper 25: Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators provides a comprehensive overview of the EU’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses on services and investment. It discusses their scope and the exceptions they contain, and then considers how these clauses are likely to limit the extent of concessions that the EU and its existing partners are prepared to grant the UK.

Please register here

Speakers:

• Dr Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex
• Nicolo Tamberi, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant:

• Jagjit S Chadha, Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Chair:

• Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex

Overview

The United Kingdom has historically been one of the main recipients of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), attracting more greenfield investment than other large European economies. However, the Brexit vote has introduced considerable uncertainty over the future growth potential of the UK market, and the ease of cross-border flow of goods and services. Following a peak of inward investment activity in early 2015, the number of FDI project announcements for the UK and the UK’s share of the European market for FDI have been falling.

In this briefing paper we provide an analysis of inward FDI to the UK before and after the EU referendum, looking at the main foreign investors, which sectors they invest in and how trends in inward FDI have evolved over time. Our work suggests that following the Brexit vote, inward investment has been 16-20 per cent lower than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain a member of the EU, but that this impact differs depending on the sector.

Please register here

For a decade or more tensions have been rising in the World Trading System. The stresses felt by less-skilled workers in developed countries, accusations of malpractice on investment and intellectual property in emerging markets, covert measures of protection and low aggregate trade growth have all contributed to a sense of unease and disappointment. But with the election of President Trump in the USA, these uncomfortable itches have flared up into a painful and disconcerting rash. With tariffs escalating and institutions under fire, we have to ask ‘what are we going to do?’
This seminar brings together experts from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) and the Graduate Institute to discuss US trade policies and the rest of the world’s response to them in the context of the multilateral system. The meeting will comprise two presentations, commentary and discussion.

• Trade Wars: possible responses and consequences

Dr Michael GASIOREK, UK Trade Policy Observatory
Dr Ilona SERWICKA, UK Trade Policy Observatory
Prof. Alasdair SMITH, UK Trade Policy Observatory

• Trumpian commercial policy: Trade war, or reverse regionalism?

Richard BALDWIN, Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva

• Question & Answers

Chair: Prof. L. Alan WINTERS CB, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory
The discussion will be followed by a light reception in the Hall of Petal 2 (Maison de la Paix)

Speakers:

Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO)
Suzannah F Walmesley, Principal Consultant, ABPmer

Discussant:
Matthew Whittles, Team Leader: Trade in fish | EU and International Fisheries, DEFRA will be the discussant.

Chair:
Jim Rollo CMG, Emeritus Professor of European Economics, University of Sussex; Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview

Leaving the EU will involve some combination of changes in tariffs, non-tariff measures, and also the amount of fish quotas that can be caught by the UK and the EU respectively. Several politicians and commentators have stated that Brexit means that the UK can take back control of its fishing waters. The aim of this Briefing Paper is twofold. First, to detail the policy environment, and the policy considerations facing the UK government in the Brexit negotiations. Secondly, to provide an empirical assessment of what the impact on leaving the EU might be on the seafood industry. As the nature of the UK’s future trade relations with the EU are still uncertain, in this paper we explore several simulations which aim, broadly speaking, to capture the key variants of Brexit that appear to be under discussion. 

An academic conference looking at the economics of Brexit, hosted by the UKTPO and Chatham House. Six papers will be presented over the course of the day, which will end with a roundtable discussion chaired by Chris Giles, Economics Editor for the Financial Times.

Please see the conference brochure for full details.

Speakers:

• Rorden Wilkinson, Professor of Global Political Economy and Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Education and Innovation), University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
• Pietra Rivoli, Vice-Dean and Professor in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University
• Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO, University of Sussex
• Emily Lydgate, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
• Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Managing Director of Interanalysis; member of UKTPO

Chair:
Jim Rollo CMG, Emeritus Professor of European Economics, University of Sussex; Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview
Both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May have stated their keenness to negotiate and agree the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement after Brexit. With President Trump set to visit the UK next month and less than a year until the UK leaves the EU, this roundtable event focuses on what the key issues are likely to be and what a transatlantic agreement may, or may not, comprise. The panellists outline the general geopolitical landscape within which a UK – US trade agreement will be negotiated, including the WTO, discuss some potential issues that may infringe on a swift agreement and also offer insight on how these issues could be resolved. These include the compatibility of regulatory regimes, public support for free trade and economic interests.

Please book here

Speakers:
Dr Emily Lydgate, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex, UKTPO Fellow
Dr Rob Amos, Research Officer, University of Sussex

Discussant:
Dr Max Mendez-Parra, Senior Research Fellow, ODI

Chair:
Professor Jim Rollo CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House

Overview
As the UK contemplates ambitious new trade agreements, it needs to develop mechanisms to ensure that these uphold its commitment to environmental protection and high labour standards, and benefit all of the UK. As it has not managed external trade independently for many years, there are no existing procedures for scoping, negotiating and ratifying trade agreements. Proposed legislation does not fill the gaps, and questions remain about the governance of new trade agreements, as well as those ‘rolled over’ from the EU.

In this context, we will examine approaches to:

(1) integrating sustainable development objectives into the negotiating process; and

(2) reflecting these objectives through trade agreements.

We conclude that the UK’s ability to take leadership in this area will hinge on its ability to develop a robust framework to ensure that the negotiation process is transparent and allows for public consultation, and that the impact of new trade agreements – including on the environment and vulnerable populations – are assessed and addressed. In this respect, the UK can draw from, and improve upon, the EU’s experience with Sustainability Impact Assessment. We identify the potential significance of third-party trade agreements, most imminently with the US, in shaping UK domestic environmental and consumer protection.

Finally, we highlight implications of the UK’s inheritance of the EU’s ‘cooperative approach’ to trade and sustainable development through the continuation of its trade agreements.

Please book here

Speakers: Professor L. Alan Winters, Director, UKTPO Director, University of Sussex
Julia Magntorn, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex

Discussant: Christophe Bondy, Special Counsel, Cooley LLP

Chair: Gemma Tetlow, Economics Correspondent for the Financial Times

Overview

In the search for a framework for a future UK-EU trade relationship, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) has come under the spotlight. To inform the debate surrounding a potential ‘Canada plus’ model for the UK post-Brexit, the UK Trade Policy Observatory’s latest Briefing Paper looks in detail at the services and investment liberalisation that the EU undertook in CETA.

We score the EU’s commitments in CETA according to their degree of liberalisation and aggregate the scores across a wide range of services sectors. This, in turn, allows a comparison between sectors and helps us to identify the sectors where the UK may want to seek ‘pluses’ in a UK-EU context. Further, we evaluate the extent to which the EU’s commitments in CETA improve on pre-existing regimes by comparing the degree of liberalisation in CETA with the EU’s prior commitments in the GATS. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the pluses that the UK may seek are likely to be achievable.

Please book your place here.

Speaker

PROFESSOR KYM ANDERSON, George Gollin Professor of Economics, Executive Director of the Wine Economics Research Centre, University of Adelaide and Australian National University, Australia

Discussants

JANCIS ROBINSON,  writes weekly for the Financial Times and daily for JancisRobinson.com, the first Master of Wine from outside the wine trade.

TAMARA ROBERTS, Chief Executive Officer, Ridgeview Wine Estate

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House, UK

Wine represents over 40% of the share of UK alcohol consumption in the UK today. Brexit is of considerable significance to wine producers and consumers across the world, because Britain has always imported a major share of the world’s wine, especially in value terms. The UK accounts for more than one-sixth of the wine export earnings of seven key wine countries, and for three of them (Australia, the US and New Zealand) it buys more than one-third of their volume of wine exports.

To get a sense of how wine markets might be affected by Brexit, Professor Kym Anderson uses a model of the world’s wine markets to project those markets to 2025 then adjusts for possible Brexit effects. Professor Anderson, a world authority on the wine market, will present the resulting impacts on bilateral wine trade values and volumes for commercial and fine still wines as well as for sparkling wines at this event.

Speakers

PROFESSOR L. ALAN WINTERS, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of UKTPO

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO

Chair (TBC)

Members of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) at the University of Sussex will outline the key trade issues post-Brexit and provide economic and legal analysis of the UK’s trade relations post-Brexit. They will scope out a number of potential scenarios and the possible impact of each on the South East region.

The event will consist of short presentations from the panellists, a World Café session involving all attendees and a question and answer session. Refreshments will be served. The World Café session will provide participants with the opportunity to discuss the things they think are important, outline what trade issues they want to know more about, and what they think the government should do for trade in post-Brexit Britain.

Through these events UKTPO hopes to gather baseline data of stakeholder opinions and knowledge gaps. This data can help inform the focus of the Observatory’s future publication outputs, and our fellows can also feedback to policymakers, providing the opportunity for more inclusive trade policy-making.

Speaker

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.

Discussant

PROFESSOR ALASDAIR SMITH, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Former Vice-Chancellor, University of Sussex

DR SWATI DHINGRA, Lecturer in Economics, LSE

Chair

PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emeritus Professor of European Economics and Associate Fellow Chatham House

The sheer value of public procurement contracts make them important both economically and for providing society with essential public goods, services and infrastructure. Yet, Brexit could fragment government procurement policy within the UK, as well as disrupt the UK’s relationship with the WTO GPA and other preferential procurement agreements.

At this meeting, the speaker will look at some of the legal issues that will affect the UK’s public procurement laws and policies following Brexit. She will put forward a response to some of the potentially negative consequences of Brexit that could undermine value for money, transparency and competition within the UK’s lucrative markets for government procurement contracts. This will be followed by a discussion.

Speakers

DR EMILY LYDGATE, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex and Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
DR FEDERICO ORTINO, Reader, King’s College London

When the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and the Single Market, could it still preserve some or most of the benefits of special access? In this event, we consider how WTO rules and practices will constrain and define any UK-EU agreement. While they rule out some solutions that may superficially appear politically convenient, like special market access solely for cars, they do not prohibit a deep and significant trade and cooperation agreement. While the parties may not be able to reach this agreement, they should not dress political failure up as legal impossibility.

Download a PDF of Dr Emily Lydgate’s presentation slides.

Speakers

DR INGO BORCHERT, Lecturer In Economics, University Of Sussex
JOHN COOKE, Chairman of the Liberalisation of Trade in Services Committee, ThecityUK
CHAIR: JIM ROLLO, Associate Fellow, International Economics Department, Chatham House

Brexit will have important repercussions for the UK’s economic ties with the EU in the realm of services markets. Services trade is economically significant for a number of reasons. Producer services such as finance, transportation or professional services are inputs into both the production and international exchange of goods, whereas trade in other services directly affects consumer welfare. This event provides an overview of prevailing services trade flows as well as trade policies. It will commence with a picture of current UK services trade across the various modes of supply. The revealed strengths of the UK in certain services sectors could inform negotiating priorities going forward. In terms of services trade policies, the event will discuss the different market access regimes at the multilateral level as well as through preferential agreements. The event will take the format of a presentation, followed by an open discussion.

Speakers

DR PETER HOLMES, Reader In Economics, University of Sussex, Director of Caris and Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
DR MICHAEL GASIOREK, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex, Managing Director of Interanalysis; Member of UKTPO
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
CHAIR: Stephen Pickford, Associate Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House

There are complicated trade-offs between the different options for trading relations between the UK and the EU following the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The mooted options range from a customs union, free trade area, to MFN status. The four main apparently immovable constraints involve:

• An end to the free movement of people between the EU and the UK;
• British law not being subject to the ECJ;
• Sovereignty over British trade policy and;
• No compulsory UK contribution the EU budget.

The EU has not specified either defensive or offensive objectives after Brexit apart from the mantra that the UK cannot cherry pick the bits of the single market it prefers. This discussion will explore whether a hard Brexit leading to accepting WTO terms based on the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ principle is inevitable, and if there is any way the constraints can be relaxed.

Professor L. Alan Winters took part in a panel discussion alongside Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch, Prof. Michael Burda, Prof. Daniel S. Hamermesh and moderated by Stephan Richter, publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Globalist.

Watch the video of the discussion: The economic consequences of Brexit – what the experts say

Speaker: L. Alan WINTERS Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory

Open Discussion with:

• Emily LYDGATE Lecturer in Environmental Law at the University of Sussex, Moderator: Richard BALDWIN, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute Geneva and president of CEPR
• Patrick LOW Former Chief of Staff and Chief Economist of WTO, Senior Visiting Fellow at Sussex University;
• Michael GASIOREK Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex, Director of InterAnalysis Trade
• Theresa CARPENTER Executive Director Centre for Trade and Economic Integration;
• Lorand BARTELS Reader in International Law, University of Cambridge
• Overview – The UK faces complex and potentially radical choices on trade policy after BREXIT. These include:
• How should it reset its position in the WTO?
• Should it stay in the EU customs union?
• If the UK leaves the customs union in order to take control of its own trade policy:
  • What relationship should it have with the EU 27 beyond MFN or a simple FTA?
    Should it try to stay in some or all of the single market and can it do that without conceding free movement of labour?
  • What should it do about the trade agreements/ relationships that it has as result of membership of the EU covering both bilateral and regional FTA as well as under the EU GSP provisions?
  • How should it prioritise potential partners in new FTA?
    Can it do all this in the two years that Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union allows?

Download a video or PDF of the presentation made by Dr Emily Lydgate and Professor L. Alan Winters on The Landscape of UK Trade Policy after Brexit.

Participants

DR KAMALA DAWAR, Lecturer in Commercial Law, School of Law, University of Sussex
DR PATRICK LOW, Visiting Professor, University of Sussex; Chief Economist, WTO (1997-2013)
PROFESSOR JIM ROLLO CMG, University of Sussex, Deputy Director UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow Chatham House
PROF L. ALAN WINTERS, CB, Director UK Trade Observatory, University of Sussex
CHAIR: DR PAOLA SUBACCHI, Research Director, International Economics, Chatham House

Overview

Following the decision to leave the EU, Britain will have to reconfigure its trade policy, successfully navigating a path through a new international trade landscape.

This event, which will launch the UK Trade Policy Observatory initiative, will analyse the WTO-related issues raised by the UK taking up its new status as an individual member without the responsibilities of an EU member. Such a transition is seen by many as an automatic step, as currently the UK is a member in its own right as well through the EU. The panel will seek to explore whether or not that assumption of an automatic transition is problematic.

Watch the video or listen to the audio recording of Reconstructing Britain’s Trade Policy After Brexit