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31 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of the UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the sixth in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the SNP Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that, we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto. (more…)

May 31st, 2017

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26 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of the UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the fifth in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the UKIP Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto. (more…)

May 26th, 2017

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24 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the fourth in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the Green Party Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto.

A central aim of the Green Party is for the UK to remain in the EU, or at least in the single market. The former implies no change to current trade policies and hence little need to discuss them in the manifesto. Thus their coverage of trade policy beyond that with the EU is restricted to human rights and social and environmental conditions.

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May 24th, 2017

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19 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the third in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the Conservative Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto. (more…)

May 19th, 2017

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18 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the second in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the Liberal Democrats’ Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto.

The central plank of the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto is remaining in the single market and the customs union. This implies no change to current trade policies and hence little need to discuss them in the manifesto. Thus their coverage of trade policy is rather sparse. (more…)

May 18th, 2017

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16 May 2017

Compiled by Fellows of UKTPO

Brexit will leave many areas of UK policy open to change. International trade policy is among the most important of these for UK prosperity and also among the most immediate because the status quo cannot simply be extended. This is the first in a series of blogs reporting what the major political parties say about trade policy in their 2017 manifestos, as they become available.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has set out a series of issues that it believes should be considered in any election manifesto that might form the basis of the UK’s future trade policy. The table below checks whether or not the Labour Party Manifesto mentions these important elements explicitly or implicitly. Following that we offer a brief commentary on the treatment of trade policy in the manifesto.

(more…)

May 16th, 2017

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Briefing Paper 70 – October 2022

Erika Szyszczak

Key Points

Introduction

Subsidies granted by third states

The Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR)

The definition of a concentration

Ex ante mandatory notification: qualifying thresholds

Financial contribution

An actual or potential distortive effect on the EU internal market

Implications for the UK

The Anti-Coercion Instrument

The definition of economic coercion

When diplomacy fails

Compatibility with international law

Conclusion

Key Points

  • The EU is developing new legal instruments to respond to, and provide remedies against, trade policies of third states which harm the EU internal market.
  • While China is the main threat to EU trade security the measures will be applicable to all third states, especially Russia, the US and the UK.
  • The proposals give the European Commission a central role in the investigation and enforcement of trade remedies but will have significant consequences for business
  • The proposals have less than transparent criteria for their application. This gives the European Commission wide discretion but may also entail further guidance, using soft law, if the European Commission wants to avoid legal challenges to the exercise of its new powers.
  • The Anti-Coercion Instrument attempts to bypass the slow procedures of the WTO and this raises questions as to whether the measure is compatible with WTO and international law.
  • The use of unilateral measures for trade security is a new form of statecraft for the EU, but it may undermine the EU’s pledge to maintain a rules-based global trading order.

Introduction

(more…)

October 12th, 2022

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23 May 2022

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School

UK trade with Europe has significantly fallen off (see UKTPO BP 63 for an early assessment). UK GDP has fallen by 4%. If we cancel the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) – which is all the talk at the moment – the economic consequences of Brexit will get worse and let’s not even think about the political consequences. Is any of this fixable? Yes, if we look ahead to 2025 when the Brexit agreement with the EU—formally known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) —is up for its 5-yearly review. UK stakeholders, including political parties planning their manifestoes ahead of the next UK general election in 2024, should consider their Brexit positions now – but it’s not a case of leave or remain, rather a case of ‘tweak the Brexit agreement to something that better suits us’. (more…)

May 23rd, 2022

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Briefing Paper 42 – June 2020

Erika Szyszczak

Key Points

Introduction

Competition Provisions in International Trade Agreements

The EU Negotiating Position

The UK Negotiating Position

New Directions for the Use of State Aid in the UK

What Kind of State Aid Scheme Will the UK Implement?

The Northern Ireland Protocol

A State Aid Plan for Domestic Policy

Conclusion 

Key Points

  • State aid is currently a stumbling block in the EU-UK trade talks.
  • The EU demands a Level Playing Field (LPF) preferring that the UK follows the models found in Association Agreements made between the EU and its neighbours with the UK adopting a dynamic alignment with the EU State aid rules.
  • But the EU has further demands that the UK also works closely with the European Commission and that UK national courts continue to make preliminary references to the European Court of Justice.
  • The UK government wants sovereignty in the area of State aid and prefers to adopt a more relaxed process for international trade based upon the rules in the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM).
  • There is evidence that the UK plans to adopt a different approach to the use of State aid in the future to promote the global economic role of the UK.
  • Relying on WTO rules would not create a robust domestic system of State aid control.
  • In addition to the need to have some form of State aid regulation in place to satisfy international trade concerns it is also necessary for a domestic process to be available to scrutinise and challenge domestic spending.
  • To date, there is no clear proposal as to what a domestic State aid regime would look like.

(more…)

June 19th, 2020

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Erika Szyszczak8 June 2020

Professor Erika Szyszczak is Professor Emerita and a Fellow of UKTPO, University of Sussex.

Control over state aid is a stumbling block for the future of a EU-UK trade agreement. The EU is seeking dynamic alignment of any future UK state aid rules. This is a bold demand, especially since the EU state aid rules will be in a state of flux in the forthcoming years. But if no agreement is reached there are implications for domestic UK policy. (more…)

June 9th, 2020

Posted In: UK- EU

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