Julia Magntorn is Research Officer in Economics at the UKTPO.
While Theresa May and her cabinet are trying to agree on whether to back the maximum facilitation proposal or the customs partnership, another option, nicknamed the ‘Norway option’ which would see the UK remaining a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), has made a comeback in the Brexit debate. (more…)
Charlotte Humma May 18th, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
23 February 2018
Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO.
Before and since the Brexit referendum there have been numerous criticisms made of economic models, of the views of ‘experts’ and the supposed inaccuracy of their forecasts. But these critiques are mostly based on misunderstandings, so, as an economist and long-time modeller, I want to explain the value – and the limitations – of modelling. Models are indeed extremely useful and should be used to help inform public policy – but you need to use them appropriately.
Myth buster: “Models are not designed to provide accurate predictions / forecasts of future reality”. (more…)
Charlotte Humma February 23rd, 2018
19 June 2017
Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
It’s now 12 months since the referendum decision, 3 months since the Article 50 notification, and only 21 months until the date on which the UK is due to exit the EU. Brexit negotiations start today, but most politicians have still not progressed beyond the stage of wishful thinking.
There are ambiguities about the objectives of both the large political parties but each seems to want some kind of free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU after Brexit, often described by a phrase like ‘tariff-free access to the single market’. Behind such inherently confused terminology lies an apparent wish to have a ‘deep’ FTA; that is to say, a UK-EU FTA which has no tariffs and sufficient regulatory convergence between the UK and the EU that many of the non-tariff advantages of the single market are retained.
Here’s the first hard truth: a deep UK-EU FTA cannot be negotiated in 21 months. Even much weaker agreements take longer, especially if the political and technical ground has not been prepared in advance, so it’s not ‘challenging’ or ‘ambitious’ or ‘difficult’: everyone who understands the reality of trade negotiations knows that it is completely impossible. (more…)
Charlotte Humma June 19th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU