11 June 2020
Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, attention has shifted away from the economic implications of Brexit and towards what a post-COVID economy might look like. This is understandable, yet by now it looks as if a hard Brexit might be just around the corner. Last week the fourth round of negotiations between the UK and the EU ended without visible progress, and the Government has repeatedly ruled out an extension to the transition period. Thus, in spite of the continuing impact of COVID-related restrictions, it seems warranted to put back into focus some features of the UK economy that are likely to change after the transition period has ended.
George Meredith June 11th, 2020
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: foreign investment, Services
20 April 2020
Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
The economic consequence of the Covid-19 outbreak is undoubtedly the most immediate worry for most businesses world-wide currently. While businesses of all sizes are affected, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable given their size and often limited resources.
In the UK, the SMEs (enterprises with up to 249 employees) that are able to weather the immediate crisis still face the consequences of Brexit. While the outbreak of the virus halted several of the scheduled negotiating rounds, the UK Government is still adamant that there will not be an extension to the transition period beyond December 2020. (more…)
George Meredith April 20th, 2020
Posted In: UK- EU
28 June 2019
Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the Observatory.
On Wednesday, the Department for International Trade (DIT) released its official statistics on inward foreign direct investments (FDI) for the financial year 2018-19.[1] As stated by the DIT, these data measure the inflow of ‘new investment, expansion, and mergers & acquisition’ projects, both publicly announced and not. (more…)
George Meredith June 28th, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, FDI, Financial Services, foreign investment, Services, trade policy
1 April 2019
Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
During the first round of the indicative voting process at Parliament, the motion that proposes a permanent customs union attracted the second highest number of Ayes and was rejected by the slimmest margin of all eight motions. This result shows the prevailing preoccupation with trade in merchandise goods. Amongst other things, a customs union alone does nothing for services trade. In this blog, we set out why the continued neglect of services trade is a major concern for the UK economy.[1] A twin-jet aircraft with just one engine on would ordinarily be bound for an emergency landing rather than for a smooth journey ahead. (more…)
Charlotte Humma April 1st, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Customs Union, Exports, Services, Single Market
14 February 2019
L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
Charlotte Humma February 14th, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU
Tags: EEA, EU Single Market, Irish border, MFN, Services, White Paper
01 October 2018
Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics, and Dr Peter Holmes is a Reader in Economics, both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
The UK Government is currently proposing to the EU, broadly speaking, to adopt a common rulebook for goods. By contrast, not much if anything is sought in the realm of services, let alone movement of people or other areas of the Single Market. Part of the EU’s response has been that goods and services are so interlinked that one cannot have a goods only single market. Is this response just posturing as part of the negotiations process, or are there real issues with separating goods and services? (more…)
Charlotte Humma October 1st, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Chequers Agreement, goods, Irish border, Northern Ireland, Services, Single Market
12 July 2018
Rorden Wilkinson is Professor of Global Political Economy and Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Charlotte Humma is Research Communications Manager at the Business School and Business Manager at the Observatory.
Standards and technical regulations are likely to be the most significant—and potentially contentious—obstacles to a UK-US trade deal according to leading trade experts.
Published today our latest briefing paper states that the UK faces a challenge in whether it stays with EU regulation, moves towards the US approach or tries a pick-and-mix approach of its own. (more…)
Charlotte Humma July 12th, 2018
Posted In: UK - Non EU
Tags: Free Trade Agreement, Regulations, Services, Trade agreements, Transatlantic trade agreement, USA
06 July 2018
Dr. Minako Morita-Jaeger is is an international trade policy consultant and a Visiting Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
Exactly a year ago today, the EU and Japan agreed the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in principle. Subsequently, at the end of August that year, the UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to work quickly to establish a new bilateral economic partnership based on the final terms of the EU-Japan EPA when the UK exits the EU. The UK Government currently wishes to roll over existing EU trade agreements, including the EU-Japan EPA. But does rolling over make sense? From the UK point of view, it is obvious that rolling over the Agreement reflects neither Brexit campaigners’ promise of building a ‘Global Britain’ nor UK sovereignty of its own trade policy. From the Japanese perspective, rolling over the EU-Japan EPA does not make sense either because a symbolic arrangement cannot reflect economic realities. (more…)
Charlotte Humma July 6th, 2018
Posted In: UK - Non EU
Tags: Economic Partnership Agreement, Free Trade Agreement, FTA, Japan, Negotiations, Services, Single Market
05 July 2018
L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory.
Two years in and the Cabinet is still squabbling over the UK’s trade relationship with Europe. Among the options most discussed, if not most likely to occur, are
This blog does not assess the relative merits of these arrangements, but notes that they share a common flaw: they ignore 80 percent of the British economy! The more successful 80 percent, in fact – the services sectors, in which the UK has a manifest comparative advantage (see below). The advocates of these plans gloss over this difficulty by claiming that the UK can negotiate services trade agreements both with the EU and with other countries. But this is easier said than done. (more…)
Charlotte Humma July 6th, 2018
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Customs Union, Free Trade Agreement, Services, Single Market, White Paper
22 March 2018
Julia Magntorn is Research Assistant in Economics at the UKTPO and L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory.
The European Union is likely to reject a significantly enhanced version of its Canada trade deal for the UK after Brexit.
Our in-depth analysis of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada concludes that the EU’s commitment to the Single Market is so deeply ingrained that a substantial loosening of the rules for the UK would be politically impossible.
The EU may agree to some exceptions but these would fall far short of a bespoke deal and would be a poor substitute for the Single Market, say the report’s authors Julia Magntorn and L. Alan Winters. (more…)
Charlotte Humma March 22nd, 2018
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Canada, CETA, Services, Single Market, Trade agreements
