11 January 2018
Dr Ingo Borchert is Lecturer in Economics and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the Observatory
The North East and West Midlands are the most reliant on the European market, sending around half of their services exports to the EU. Sources: Office for National Statistics (2017a); and authors’ calculations.
Two of the biggest Brexit-voting regions would be hit hardest by a potential fall in services exports upon leaving the EU, new analysis suggests. (more…)
Charlotte Humma January 11th, 2018
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Exports, Regions, Services, Single Market
15 December 2017
Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
The deal done on Friday December 8 in the Brexit negotiations has already been subject to conflicting interpretations. The UK has committed to having no hard border in Ireland, and committed in terms which seem to admit no rowing back. (more…)
Charlotte Humma December 15th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: alignment, Article 50, Customs Union, Free Trade Agreement, Ireland, Irish border, Single Market, trade negotiations, Transition
8 December 2017
Jim Rollo is Deputy Director of UKTPO, Emeritus Professor of European Economics at the University of Sussex and Associate Fellow, Chatham House. Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
The agreement to proceed to the next phase of Brexit talks is a step forward on the road to a softer Brexit. But it does not offer a definitive solution to the status of the Irish border, which will depend on the nature of the final agreement on the UK-EU trade relationship. At best, it represents an exercise in constructive ambiguity designed to allow the shape and length of any interim agreement, which will help determine the shape of the long-term agreement and, in turn, will be the basis of any permanent solution to the status of the Irish land border with Northern Ireland. (more…)
Charlotte Humma December 8th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Customs Union, Grandfathering, Irish border, Rules of Origin, trade
7 December 2017
Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
How can the UK uphold its commitment to leaving the EU Single Market and Customs Union while also preserving the invisible intra-Irish border? Leaving aside crucial questions of political feasibility, this post looks at some of the options and their trade and border implications. Notably, there are limits to ‘flexible and creative’ solutions that involve turning a blind eye to customs and regulatory checks solely on the intra-Irish border: trade rules leave little room for such ad hoc approaches. (more…)
Charlotte Humma December 7th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: border checks, Customs Union, Irish border, MFN, Northern Ireland, regulatory alignement, regulatory divergence, Single Market, tariffs, WTO
16 November 207
Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO.
The European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, has recently confirmed that the UK will cease to be a member of the EU at midnight (Brussels time) on 29 March 2019. This means that we are now less than 500 days and under 350 working days away from the Brexit date. More time has already passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016. (more…)
Charlotte Humma November 16th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Article 50, Brexit, FTA, Trade agreements, Withdrawal Bill, WTO
2 November 2017
Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO.
As the United Kingdom is preparing to leave the European Union, Government policy is to seek a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU. But Brexit talks have not moved onto the trade issues yet and even if the future trade relationship is taken up in December, this gives little time and offers no guarantee that an agreement will be reached and ratified before 29 March 2019, the Brexit date. The Government has recently recognised the possibility that talks might break down and started to outline a ‘no deal’ vision of the UK-EU trade.
Our analysis reveals that unemployed households, those with children, and pensioners will all fare off worse than average in the case of a ‘no deal’. A new paper, Will Brexit Raise the Cost of Living? by Stephen Clarke, Ilona Serwicka and L. Alan Winters, and published by the National Institute Economic Review, looks at the impact that imposing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs on UK imports from the EU would have on the price of goods sold in the UK and the average cost of living. (more…)
Charlotte Humma November 2nd, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, FTA, Living standards, MFN, No deal
17 October 2017
Steve McGuire is Professor of Business and Public Policy and Head of the School of Business, Management and Economics at the University of Sussex. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO.
Bombardier has found an elegant solution to its trade problems with the United States: sell a controlling stake in the programme to a company with deeper pockets to defend itself – and with a US production base immune, by definition, from US tariffs. (more…)
Charlotte Humma October 17th, 2017
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: aerospace, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, tariffs, trade, Trade agreements, trade dispute
17 October 2017
Lower-income households would be disproportionately affected should the UK revert to WTO tariffs
Exiting the EU without a trade deal and reverting to WTO ‘most-favoured nation’ (MFN) tariffs with the EU would lead to significant price rises across a range of goods, with low-income households facing the biggest cost pressures. This is according to a new joint-report published by the Resolution Foundation and the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. (more…)
Charlotte Humma October 17th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, Living standards, MFN, No deal, tariffs
11 October 2017
One of the most critical issues for the Brexit negotiations in relation to trade is whether the UK should remain in the EU Single Market. The Conservatives claim that the UK will no longer be members of its single market or its customs union by the end of a two-year transitional period, but at his party’s conference, Jeremy Corbyn said a Labour government would strike a deal with the EU that “guarantees unimpeded access to the single market” after Brexit.
We have produced a short, animated video that explains what the Single Market is, how it works and the ways it effects trade, and thereby the economy. This includes the role of the European Court of Justice. Ultimately, the video explains that there is a trade-off between making your laws independently and cooperating sufficiently to be a part of a bigger market and achieve higher incomes.
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The UK Trade Policy Observatory believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement. For online use, this should be a link to he original resource on the our website. We do not however, publish under a Creative Commons license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.
Charlotte Humma October 11th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, European Court of Justice, Regulations, Single Market, Standards, trade
11 October 2017
Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and Managing Director of InterAnalysis
Reading the Government’s White Paper on trade, and the Customs Bill on future customs arrangements, together with Monday’s statement from the Prime Minister seemed like a Groundhog day moment. In other words, this is somewhere we have been before – repeatedly. (more…)
Charlotte Humma October 11th, 2017
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Article 50, Brexit, Customs Bill, Customs Union, interim arrangements, No deal, trade, White Paper
