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23 July 2021

Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UKTPO.

We have updated our estimates of the effects of the introduction of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade in 2021 through to April. The methodology used was described in the UKTPO briefing paper 57 (see the appendix for details). We find that over the period January-April 2021, the TCA reduced UK exports to the EU by 18.7% and imports from the EU by 25.8% compared to the scenario in which the UK did not leave the EU.

For the analysis, we used HMRC for UK trade and Eurostat data for EU trade excluding gold from both exports and imports (HS code 7108). Over the last few months, analysts and commentators have noted a big gap between UK exports to the EU as reported by the UK and the corresponding flows reported by the EU (that is, UK exports to the EU reported by the UK and EU imports from the UK reported by Eurostat). We have investigated the issue in detail in our latest working paper and concluded that we agreed with the ONS  that UK reported data should be used instead of the EU reported mirror flows. While both the UK and the EU changed the data collection method for UK-EU trade in 2021, the changes undertaken by the EU in its reported imports are larger than those of UK reported exports.

As always, these data are provisional and could be revised in the future, so our results should not be interpreted as definitive. Our preferred estimation, which uses the synthetic control method, shows that UK exports to the EU have been dramatically affected in January 2021 (-42%) and we find some milder evidence that they were negatively affected also in April 2021 (-14.3%). Adding up the period January-April 2021, UK exports to the EU were down by 18.7%. On the other hand, UK imports from the EU saw a smaller drop in January 2021, but they remained consistently below expectations for all months of 2021 to date. Over the entire period January-April 2021, UK imports have been 25.8% less than what they would have been otherwise. This can be seen in the figures below where the blue line depicts what actually happened, the orange lines give our counterfactual synthetic control estimates for what would have happened in the absence of Brexit.

Figure 1: UK-EU trade excluding gold (HS 7108) and synthetic counterfactual

UK exports to the EU

A) UK exports to the EU

UK imports from the EU

B) UK imports from the EU

The figures show actual UK exports to and imports from the EU excluding gold (HS 7108) and the synthetic series. We estimated the model for UK trade with each EU country and then aggregated the figure to EU total.

It is clear that over the period there has been a decline in exports and imports. The decline in imports appears to have been more consistent than the impact on exports and at this stage that is still somewhat puzzling. These are also still ‘early’ impacts as they only for the first four months.


The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the University of Sussex or UK Trade Policy Observatory.

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July 23rd, 2021

Posted In: UK- EU

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Image of Alan Winters22 July 2021

Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) at the University of Sussex. L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of the UKTPO.

The UK Government’s command paper on Northern Ireland published yesterday (21 July 2021) is significant in four regards.

First, because it explicitly recognises – at length – that the Protocol is not working (at least not for the UK) and needs to be modified in form or in implementation. This is almost certainly correct. (more…)

July 22nd, 2021

Posted In: UK- EU

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Share this article: Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail8 July 2021Image of Alan Winters

L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of the UKTPO. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.

On 1st June 2021, as part of its post-Brexit trade architecture, the UK Government launched the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA). On 11th June the TRA recommended the extension of only some of the quotas and tariffs on steel imports that the UK had inherited from the EU. On 30th June, one day before these measures were due to expire, the Government rejected the TRA’s recommendation and extended the policies on several categories of steel for which the TRA had recommended the revocation. It also announced a review to check whether the TRA was ‘fit for purpose’. What was going on? And does it matter?


July 8th, 2021

Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU

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