22 September 2023.
L. Alan Winters is Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP), Professor of Economics at University of Sussex Business School and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
When UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, spoke on climate policy on 20th September and talked the following day to the BBC’s Today programme, he did much more than delay the UK’s policies for achieving net zero. He said he was changing the terms of political debate. He spoke of honesty, pragmatism, transparency, and ‘getting opinions and advice from anybody’. Nothing could be more welcome to anybody who has engaged with UK policy over the last eight years, during which the greatest failing has been the lack of these characteristics at the highest political levels.
I would like to celebrate the change in practice immediately, so let me pose a few straightforward questions to Mr Sunak to which a pragmatic government must surely have answers already.
Let me start with the climate policy announcements themselves:
What are the estimates of how much his new climate policies will increase the UK’s total carbon dioxide emissions between now and 2050?
What are the estimates of how much the new measures will reduce the expenditure by the average household over the period 2023 to 2035?
Nearly all experts believe that the more rapid a country’s adjustment towards net zero, the greater the costs it faces. Does Mr Sunak agree? What estimates does he have of the increased adjustment costs of reaching net zero in 2050 arising from the new delays?
Will the new policy on energy infrastructure be fully costed and have a timescale that the people who have to deliver it on the ground believe is credible? When is it due and when it is announced will My Sunak commit that his government(s) will never change it?
Next, let me turn to Brexit and international trade policy – the focus of both The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy and the UK Trade Policy Observatory. We are particularly pleased to see Mr Sunak speaking about imposing ‘costs on working people, especially those who are already struggling to make ends meet and to interfere so much in people’s way of life without a properly informed national debate’, which has been of particular concern to us.
Is Brexit working for the British economy? And, as we say in university exams, explain your reasoning.
Does Mr Sunak really believe that the additional bureaucratic costs of importing food into the UK (nearly all of which comes from the European Union) has had no effect on food prices?
Is the UK actually going to introduce customs formalities on imports from the EU or is it just going to give up controlling that border? Given that we have had multiple postponements of the introduction, a simple ‘yes’ will not suffice.
How many UK firms have stopped exporting to the EU since 2020? And how many of them have started exporting elsewhere?
What is the cause of UK business investment more or less flatlining since 2016?
What is the main reason given by British business for its lack of enthusiasm about UK regulations diverging from those of the EU?
How much will it cost the UK chemicals industry to obtain regulatory approval under UK REACH?
With the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system broken, why will the UK not join 26 other WTO members in the temporary alternative mechanism for resolving trade disputes – the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA)?
Does Mr Sunak really want independent advice on trade policy? His government proposed in March to neuter the independent Trade Remedies Authority. No action has been taken since. May we give him credit for changing his mind?
Big changes in political practice are hard to engineer, so perhaps Mr Sunak can underpin his revolution by committing that pigs will not fly between now and the next general election.
This blog was first published on the CITP website on September 22, 2023.
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Jessie Madrigal-Fletcher September 22nd, 2023
Posted In: Uncategorised
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June 21 2023
Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
This is an extract from a paper first published on The Review Of European Law journal on may 5, 2023. To read it in its entirety, click here.
In the extract below we suggest that there are few trade benefits to be had. Is there something else that enhances economic viability? Is it as “regulatory sandboxes”? The present regulations require adherence to international environmental and financial standards. So what about R&D? There are some wind turbine, carbon capture and “Green Hydrogen” projects but not much linkage to Freeports. We don’t address the recent accusations of financial irregularities, yet clearly, property speculation is the other way to profit. (more…)
Jessie Madrigal-Fletcher June 21st, 2023
Posted In: UK- EU
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16 June 2023
Chloe Anthony, Doctoral Researcher at University of Sussex Law School and Legal Researcher for the UK Environmental Law Association’s Governance and Devolution Group.
The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill is part of the Government’s ‘Brexit opportunities’ agenda. It is currently in its final stages in Parliament, going back and forth between the Houses, in a debate on the inclusion of clauses that aim to safeguard parliamentary scrutiny and prevent the lowering of environmental protections. It returns to the Commons on 20 June. (more…)
Jessie Madrigal-Fletcher June 16th, 2023
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, Environment, EU, Europe, food, Single Market, TCA, Trade and Cooperation Agreement, trade policy, UK economy
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8 June 2023
Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Manuel Tong Koecklin is a Research Fellow in the Economics of Trade at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and University of Sussex Business School.
Recently, there have been a series of reports in the media focussing on the challenges that electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers are likely to face, from the end of this year, in exporting electric vehicles tariff-free to the EU. The concern it because of the changes in the rules of origin (ROOs) requirements (for EVs and batteries) which will become more difficult from January 2024, and again from 2027 and 2028 onwards. (more…)
Jessie Madrigal-Fletcher June 8th, 2023
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, EU, Europe, goods, Single Market, TCA, Trade and Cooperation Agreement, trade policy, UK economy
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19 May 2023
Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO.
Earlier this week Vauxhall announced it may withdraw from producing electric vehicles in the UK owing to difficulties from meeting ‘rules of origin’ on EU exports. The car manufacturer called for a revision to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the EU and then UK, notably regarding rules of origin (ROOs). Ford and Jaguar Land-Rover have also warned of the difficulties and called for a revision to the TCA and German producers have also expressed concerns about the meeting these ROOs. (more…)
Jessie Madrigal-Fletcher May 19th, 2023
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, EU, EU Single Market, Europe, goods, TCA, Trade and Cooperation Agreement, trade policy, UK economy
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31 March 2023
Minako Morita-Jaeger is Policy Research Fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Senior Research Fellow in International Trade in the Department of Economics, University of Sussex
On 31st March, the UK announced an agreement in principle to become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Politically, this is a positive step, especially as the Prime Minister can sell accession as a tangible achievement of the UK’s independent trade policy. But what is the real value of joining the CPTPP, and what are the key issues to examine? (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi March 31st, 2023
Posted In: UK - Non EU
Tags: Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Free Trade Agreement, Indo-Pacific, Pacific, trade, Trade agreements, trade negotiations, trade policy, UK economy, UK-Japan
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17 March 2023
Chloe Anthony is a Doctoral Researcher and Tutor at the University of Sussex Law School and Legal Researcher for the UK Environmental Law Association, Governance and Devolution Group.
The UK Government and devolved administrations have committed to improving environmental protection post-Brexit. But how do the UK’s new trade agreements impact domestic environmental ambition? And are there legal safeguards against lowering levels of environmental protection? (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi March 17th, 2023
Posted In: Uncategorised
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13 March 2023
Emily Lydgate is Reader (Senior Associate Professor) in Environmental Law at University of Sussex School of Law, Politics and Sociology and Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
The UKTPO is pleased to re-publish this TaPP Network Workshop Summary, an output of a TaPP workshop in January with speakers Geraldo Vidigal (University of Amsterdam), Emily Lydgate (UKTPO/CITP), Ilaria Espa (USI/WTI), and Greg Messenger (TaPP/University of Bristol). Rather than a blog, this note summarises views of panel participants and the authors. It provides useful insights on the latest developments in this area and policy recommendations for the UK in navigating the new subsidies race between the US and the EU. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi March 13th, 2023
Posted In: Uncategorised
Tags: Climate policy, Emissions, Emissions Trading System, Environment, EU, European Union, trade, Trade agreements, trade dispute, trade negotiations, trade policy, UK economy, UK Government, USA, WTO, WTO rules
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24 February 2023
Erika Szyszczak is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor Emerita of Law at the University of Sussex.
24 February 2022: a date that shook the world as Russian aggression in Ukraine escalated.
The fragility of a strategic democratic state was challenged, alongside exposing the vulnerability of interdependent global supply chains. Thus, it was not surprising that the early response to Russian aggression was in the form of economic sanctions led by the US, the UK and the EU. [1] (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi February 24th, 2023
Posted In: Uncategorised
Tags: Emissions, EU, European Court of Justice, European Union, Financial Services, international economic law, law, Legal Issues, Russia, Sanctions, trade, UK economy, UK Government, Ukraine, USA
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17 February 2023
L. Alan Winters is Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy, Professor of Economics at University of Sussex Business School and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
Given the recent discussions about future UK-EU relations and the review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) after two years, I have started reading the Brexit literature again. A recent paper – ‘What impact is Brexit having on the UK economy?’ by Graham Gudgin, Julian Jessop and Harry Western (GJW) from October 2022 argues there is no hard evidence of harm and that studies that claim to find harm are biased and/or incompetent! In this blog, I consider a few of their points in four areas. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi February 17th, 2023
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, Brexit dividend, Brexit uncertainty, EU, EU Single Market, European Union, Frictionless trade, TCA, trade, Trade agreements, Trade and Cooperation Agreement, trade data, UK economy
