31 May 2022
Ruby Acquah and Mattia Di Ubaldo are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Research Fellows in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School
Tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) have intensified as the UK Government (henceforth HMG) announced plans to introduce legislation that would enable it to disapply parts of the Protocol. The UK has often demanded the re-negotiation of the NIP due to its economic costs, and a too strict application by the EU. Recently, Assembly elections in Northern Ireland escalated the urgency of resolving the issue, as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is currently refusing, as part of its protest against the NIP, to participate in the power-sharing executive. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi May 31st, 2022
Posted In: UK- EU
Amrita Saha is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Development Studies affiliated with the University of Sussex and Mattia Di Ubaldo is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.
The third round of negotiations for the proposed UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) were concluded in New Delhi on May 6, with news that a deal could be reached by the end of the year. Yet, there are diverse interests on both sides, so any deal would be hard negotiated. We reflect on the current UK-India trade relationship, the state of play of negotiations, and what businesses on both sides hope the FTA will deliver. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi May 25th, 2022
Posted In: UK - Non EU
Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School
UK trade with Europe has significantly fallen off (see UKTPO BP 63 for an early assessment). UK GDP has fallen by 4%. If we cancel the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) – which is all the talk at the moment – the economic consequences of Brexit will get worse and let’s not even think about the political consequences. Is any of this fixable? Yes, if we look ahead to 2025 when the Brexit agreement with the EU—formally known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) —is up for its 5-yearly review. UK stakeholders, including political parties planning their manifestoes ahead of the next UK general election in 2024, should consider their Brexit positions now – but it’s not a case of leave or remain, rather a case of ‘tweak the Brexit agreement to something that better suits us’. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi May 23rd, 2022
Posted In: UK- EU
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics at University of Sussex Business School and Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
The concept is simple: cut tariffs levied on food imports so the products become cheaper in the UK, right? In this blog, we look at the trade data and discuss the reasons why changing tariffs would hardly affect prices.
In 2021, the UK imported £38.6 billion of food products (equivalent to 7.6% of the UK’s total imports that year and about 46% of UK food consumption). Approximately 66% come from the EU and are already exempt from tariffs under the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi May 6th, 2022
4 May 2022
Minako Morita-Jaeger is Policy Research Fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and
Senior Research Fellow in International Trade in the Department of Economics, University of Sussex
The UK Government is aiming to secure the UK’s status as “a global hub” of digital trade, using Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as well as digital economy agreements. Driven by the UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt strategy, the UK has been signing FTAs that include specific chapters/agreements on digital trade (such as with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan) and a digital economy agreement with Singapore. (more…)
Cosmo Rana-Iozzi May 4th, 2022
Posted In: UK - Non EU