03 July 2019
L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory.
Last week I was challenged twice for using the term ‘no deal’. There is no such thing, I was told, because, even if the UK does not ratify the Withdrawal Agreement of 25th November 2018, there will still be plenty of deals. At the time I thought, for several reasons, that this was wrong in substance if not literally, but more recently I have concluded that it is also dangerous. Like we saw in the referendum campaign, it undermines informed debate by deliberately confusing the terminology.
‘The deal’ is an agreement between the EU and the UK ‘setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union’ (Article 50 – Treaty on European Union). ‘No deal’ is the absence of such a deal. For business and the economy, ‘no deal’ has come to mean the absence of a trade agreement under which the UK and the EU trade with each other on terms better than those provided for under the World Trade Organization. The former ‘no deal’ implies the latter – as I argue below – but the reverse is not true. (more…)
Charlotte Humma July 3rd, 2019
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: border checks, Brexit, Customs, international trade, No deal, Tory leadership, withdrawal agreement
28 June 2019
Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the Observatory.
On Wednesday, the Department for International Trade (DIT) released its official statistics on inward foreign direct investments (FDI) for the financial year 2018-19.[1] As stated by the DIT, these data measure the inflow of ‘new investment, expansion, and mergers & acquisition’ projects, both publicly announced and not. (more…)
George Meredith June 28th, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, FDI, Financial Services, foreign investment, Services, trade policy
26 June 2019
Erika Szyszczak is a Research Professor in Law at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of UKTPO
The Dispute Mechanism Systems (DMS) in many trade agreements have lain dormant because countries preferred to use the World Trade Organization (WTO), with its Appellate mechanisms, as the forum to resolve international disputes. This may change in the coming years as the confidence in, and reliability of the WTO, is slowly paralysed by the disruptive attitude of the United States. One question that emerges is whether the use of EU dispute resolution mechanisms offer a faster and clearer approach towards dispute resolution and might serve as a model for future regional trade treaties. (more…)
Charlotte Humma June 26th, 2019
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Brexit, dispute mechanisms, Trade agreements, WTO
15 May 2019
Chloe Anthony, Ffion Thomas and Emily Lydgate
In this blog, we take a closer look at the legislation that is being used to bring existing EU pesticide regulations into UK law in preparation for leaving the EU. We find that departures from EU pesticides legislation are significant. The new legislation consolidates powers to UK ministers to amend, revoke and make pesticide legislation and weakens both enforcement arrangements and the requirement to obtain scientific advice. (more…)
Charlotte Humma May 15th, 2019
Posted In: UK- EU
11 April 2019
Erika Szyszczak is Professor of Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of UKTPO.
Tempting as it is to work through the lyrics of the Paul Simon song,* the latest round of Brexit talks between the UK and the EU are already translating into the movie: The Long Goodbye.
By a Decision adopted on 11 April 2019, the European Council – under the patient and saintly leadership of Donald Tusk – agreed to grant the UK a second extension to Article 50 TEU either until 31 October 2019, or, an earlier date (if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified) or until 31 May 2019 if the UK fails to hold elections to the European Parliament. The UK has in fact put in place an Order to facilitate the organisation of the elections to the European Parliament. (more…)
Charlotte Humma April 12th, 2019
Posted In: UK- EU
Tags: Article 50, Brexit means Brexit, Extension, parliament, Withdrawal act, withdrawal agreement
3 April 2019
Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory.
Understandably the politics surrounding the UK’s exit from the EU are dominating current discussions. But the economics of the options still matter, and it is not always evident how well the core economic issues are understood.
In the light of the Government’s ‘approach’ to Labour to find a consensus and in the light of the indicative votes, the aim of this blog is to clearly outline the economic issues and summarise the likely consequences associated with two of the current (indicative) options. (more…)
Charlotte Humma April 3rd, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Common Market 2.0, Customs Union, Facilitated Customs Arrangement, freedom of movement, indicative votes, Irish border, options, political declaration, Regulations, tariffs, trade policy, withdrawal agreement
1 April 2019
Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
During the first round of the indicative voting process at Parliament, the motion that proposes a permanent customs union attracted the second highest number of Ayes and was rejected by the slimmest margin of all eight motions. This result shows the prevailing preoccupation with trade in merchandise goods. Amongst other things, a customs union alone does nothing for services trade. In this blog, we set out why the continued neglect of services trade is a major concern for the UK economy.[1] A twin-jet aircraft with just one engine on would ordinarily be bound for an emergency landing rather than for a smooth journey ahead. (more…)
Charlotte Humma April 1st, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: Customs Union, Exports, Services, Single Market
29 March 2019
Nicolo Tamberi is Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory and L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory.
The eight EU Trade Agreements that the UK has rolled-over replicate current trading conditions with their respective partners to a substantial extent. However, conditions could still deteriorate for at least two reasons:
Charlotte Humma March 29th, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: continuity bilateral trade agreements, Grandfathering, mutual recognition, rolling over, Rules of Origin, Trade agreements
14 March 2019
Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
Key points:
Following the first defeat of the Withdrawal Bill in Parliament, and prior to yesterday’s vote on a ‘No Deal’ alternative, the Government published the temporary tariff schedule it proposes to apply in the event of a no deal. As with most things Brexit, this is complicated to unpick, especially as some of the listed items are simply asterisked, and the details on these need to be found in another (1400 page) document! (more…)
Charlotte Humma March 14th, 2019
Posted In: UK - Non EU, UK- EU
Tags: agriculture, consumer prices, EU, Imports, MFN, tariffs, Trade agreements
13 March 2019
L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.
With Mrs May’s deal again defeated in the House of Commons yesterday evening, Professor L. Alan Winters asks how the UK got to be within 16 days of leaving the EU with no agreed plan for its departure or future relationship with the EU.
In the video ‘Mrs May’s Impasse’ Professor Winters explains how incompatible economic and political agendas and ill-considered red-lines led to the current impasse on Brexit and argues that one or the other has to give if the UK is to avoid ‘No Deal’.
Charlotte Humma March 13th, 2019
Posted In: UK- EU
