Stimulating ‘creative destruction’ to transform how we use energy

By Paula Kivimaa & Florian Kern, Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, SPRU

white CIED logoGiven the urgency of climate change, it is unfortunate that the recent ‘reset’ of UK energy policy missed a big opportunity. That is to take a more strategic approach to developing public policies to drive the rapid, transformative change required to reduce energy use and decarbonise its supply in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Research has shown that public policies can be influential drivers of innovations in multiple sectors ranging from manufacturing to transport. However, transformations originating from technological innovation often take decades, time that we simply do not have. One reason for the slow progress is that some – or even many – of the institutions and policies in place delay change by favouring established unsustainable technologies and practices, for example the indirect and direct subsidies to fossil fuels and energy intensive practices.

The kind of transformative change we need is going to be dependent on system innovation as indicated by the OECD in its recent report ‘Governance of Innovation Systems’. This has three features: 1) disrupting or complementary types of knowledge and technological capabilities, 2) fundamental changes in consumer practices and markets, and 3) novel types of infrastructures, institutional rules and skill sets.

Schumpeter coined the term of ‘winds of creative destruction’ to describe a process which revolutionises the economic structure from within, making certain skills and capabilities redundant and creating new ones at the same time. He argued that the process of creative destruction is “the essential fact about capitalism”. In our recently published research, we show that this idea is still valid and can benefit thinking about transformative change towards low carbon energy systems.

How policies can drive creative destruction?

illustration 2We propose that for the rapid uptake of innovations contributing to transformative change, policy portfolios need to include two types of measures. Firstly, innovation policies that support research and development, experimentation and market entry as well as guiding innovation towards societally important thematic areas (such as energy demand reduction). This includes the mobilisation of resources for these purposes. Secondly, broader, often sectoral, policy measures are needed that “destabilise” the non-sustainable institutional structures and practices. They reduce barriers for the wider diffusion of more sustainable technologies, services and practices.

On the creative side, policy instruments include R&D funding, innovation platforms, educational policies, labelling, feed-in-tariffs, public procurement, deployment subsidies, advice for SMEs, venture capital funding and regulation. On the destructive side, possible policy measures include taxes and regulations setting limits on energy use or carbon dioxide emissions, reduction of subsidies for polluting technology and practices, structural reforms of legislation enabling system change, policy advisory councils with new actors involved, or even outright technology bans.

Our research analysed all national-level policies potentially reducing energy demand in two European countries – the UK and Finland. We assessed to what extent the objectives of the policy measures can be expected to support innovation or contribute to the ‘creative destruction’ of high energy practices. We found that there are dozens of policies focused on creating low energy innovations (innovation which reduce energy demand or increase energy efficiency) but that there is much less attention on the destructive side of creative destruction.

In the case of the UK low energy transition, the Climate Change Act started a destabilisation process. The Act introduced a longer term policy framework than is typical for election-cycle based policies, set up targets for binding carbon cuts, and created new organisations around it. Other disruptive policies we identified include the ban of incandescent light bulbs by the EU, new organisations changing established policy networks (such as the Committee on Climate Change) and policies changing crucial rules or significantly controlling the environmental impacts of activities (such as energy efficiency requirements of building codes or car fuel standards). The origin of many of these measures lie in the European Union.

Importance of policy mix

What matters is the interaction between the different policy measures and how they jointly support innovation and disrupt unsustainable systems in the long term. In light of the latest UK policy developments, for example, the success of such disruptive policies as the Climate Change Act and the Committee on Climate Change will be limited when many other potentially disruptive policies, including the zero carbon homes target, have been removed from the policy portfolio. Examples from elsewhere indicate that the recent changes in UK energy policy may reduce opportunities for transformative change towards low energy. For example, the German experience shows that a “well-orchestrated combination of policy measures” including technology push, demand pull and systemic policies is crucial for low energy transitions. The nuclear phase-out – a clearly disruptive policy measure – was found to be the most impactful by German companies in creating room for renewable energy options. The commitment of the UK government to phase out the use of coal over the next ten years will hopefully provide a similar stimulus to alternative options.

Our work shows that for transforming the energy system, we need a policy portfolio that includes both innovation support and disruptions to the current high energy economy. This type of ‘creative destruction’ can bring many benefits beyond decarbonisation. It enables new innovation opportunities with export potential for frontrunners, reduced policy costs as a result of removing costly unsustainable or conflicting policy measures, and long term benefits through avoided environmental and health consequences associated with the existing high energy building stock. Just abandoning targets and instruments will not make the problems go away.

Photograph of paula kivimaa

Dr Paula Kivimaa

Dr Paula Kivimaa is a Senior Research Fellow at SPRU and the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (CIED). She is also a Senior Researcher at the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE. Paula has worked 13 years in research in the area of evaluating environmental, climate and innovation policy and examining their effects on innovation in energy and transport. Her work on policy evaluation, eco-innovation and socio-technical low energy transitions has been published in academic journals, including Research Policy, Environmental Policy and Governance, Environmental Politics, Journal of Transport Geography and Journal of Cleaner Production. Paula leads several projects on topics such as low energy housing innovation and energy services for building energy efficiency.

Dr Florian Kern

Dr Florian Kern

Dr Florian Kern is a Senior Lecturer at SPRU and Co-Director of the Sussex Energy Group (SEG). He has more than ten years of experience in research, consulting and teaching in the area of energy, climate and innovation policy and socio-technical transitions. Florian’s research focusses on policies and policy processes aimed at stimulating the transition to a low carbon economy. His work draws on innovation studies as well as policy analysis and political science. He has published in journals such as Research Policy, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Energy Policy, Policy & Politics, Environment & Planning C, Policy Sciences and Environmental Politics. Florian is leading a cross-cutting project of the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand on policy synergies and trade-offs.

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Whither energy policy: Is the government getting the worst of two worlds?

Gordon Mackerron, Claire Carter and Florian Kern of Sussex Energy Group, SPRU, University of Sussex

Photograph of Professor Gordon MacKerron smiling

Professor Gordon MacKerron

What do the pre-Spending Review announcements from DECC –  and the Review itself – mean for UK energy and climate change policy?  The upfront statement that energy security is now prioritised while climate goals need to be met more cheaply is nothing new – as far back as the 2008 White Paper Gordon Brown announced security to be an ‘imperative’ while climate change was a ‘challenge’[1].  So: no real change at the top, rhetorical level. But it is clear that the Government’s take on the security agenda is now in almost absolute control, with few visible signs of concessions to the climate agenda.  But addressing energy security can mean tackling a range of potentially competing issues. Security concerns can be strategic and long-term including worrying about imports, and/or shorter term worries about adequacy of electricity supply with possible problems in the intermittency of renewable power.  The government’s new priorities seem to encompass both these concerns.

Dr Florian Kern

Dr Florian Kern

The top technological priorities are plain: continuing commitment to nuclear power including large consumer subsidies for Hinkley C until around 2060, a new £250m to spend mostly on small modular reactors (SMR); and a reinforced commitment to shale gas development, including a new Shale Wealth Fund for the north of England. When security is seen through the lens of minimising import dependence, these are classic security-enhancing ideas.  The long-held policy commitment to develop carbon capture and storage technology in the UK through a £1 bn commercialisation programme fund has however now been abandoned. Given the troubled history of the programme in the UK while other countries like Canada are making progress[2], this cancellation of the second attempt to fund large scale demonstration projects in the UK adds insult to injury.  CCS was a major plank in the idea that the electricity system could be mostly decarbonised by 2030 and almost fully decarbonised by 2050 without too much pain in terms of rapid withdrawal from fossil fuels. These ambitions for the electricity system now look more remote.

Fiddlers Ferry Power Station, Mersey © Copyright Alan Godfree and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence

Fiddlers Ferry Power Station, Mersey © Copyright Alan Godfree and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence

One of the most striking announcements before the Review from DECC was an apparent commitment to phasing out coal-fired power by 2025. However this is with the caveat that enough mostly gas-based power can be built as a large part of the replacement power needed. What the Review signals is that – whether or not coal is phased out by 2025 – there is now no serious expectation that fossil-based power will need to have CCS fitted (or retro-fitted).  So even if gas replaces coal, this is still problematic in terms of cutting carbon emissions – especially in the absence of CCS.  Gas is about half the emissions of coal fired power but a full order of magnitude worse than nuclear or renewables.  So a gas-based bonanza to 2025 cuts a swathe through the idea that electricity will be effectively de-carbonised by 2050.

It is also worth looking at nuclear and shale from a quite different security perspective – the risk of delayed delivery.  Large conventional reactors are proving hard enough to deliver. The Hinkley point reactors were originally due to help us cook Christmas turkeys by 2017, and now they might just do the same job by 2025. The third station down the line of EDF plans is now due to be Chinese-owned and Chinese-designed, and the politics of that are hardly going to be straightforward. The new commitment to SMRs means that there is now to be a competition to find the best design and build it in the 2020s. This timetable looks tight but could be technically feasible. But even if it is, one of the main advantages claimed for SMRs – proximity to urban areas to allow heat to be utilised – is subject to quite untested public acceptability.  Shale may fare a bit better but this is not clear either. Government is taking powers to over-ride the kind of decision recently made by Lancashire to disallow two fracking projects in their area. But here the Government is engaged in a major contradiction: trying to push through fracking projects irrespective of local opinion, while allowing local opinion free rein to oppose wind power projects, all in a context where ‘localism’ is an avowed objective.  Even if projects are pushed through the predicted contribution from fracking is not expected to dent gas import bills any time soon[3].

This means that the nuclear and fracking prongs of the Government’s security strategy are potentially not secure at all because of a high risk of late and limited delivery.  Ironically the technologies now being reined in by policy – renewable energy and energy demand reductions – offer security both in the sense of being domestic, and in principle more deliverable because they attract relatively little public opposition and are, especially in the demand area, often cheap.  They also of course offer major contributions to emission reductions.

Photograph of Claire Carter

Claire Carter

So the risk that the Government is currently running in its particular take on the security priority is high.  Not only is the achievement of emission reduction commitments significantly less likely than before, but delivery of nuclear and fracking are problematic. Thus imperiling the security objective that is their inspiration. Truly, current policy has a real chance of getting the worst of both security and carbon reduction worlds.

Gordon Mackerron, Claire Carter and Florian Kern, Sussex Energy Group, SPRU, University of Sussex

[1] Department of Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform ‘Meeting the energy challenge: a White Paper on nuclear power ‘ Cm 7296, London, January 2008, page 4

[2] See Florian Kern, James Gaede, James Meadowcroft, Jim Watson, The political economy of carbon capture and storage: An analysis of two demonstration projects, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Available online 26 September 2015, ISSN 0040-1625, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.010.

[3] See Claire Carter, Dr Aaron Goater ‘Future of Natural Gas in the UK’ POST note no. 513 http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PN-0513#fullreport

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SEG responds to Government inquiry into the future of the UK electricity infrastructure

Dr Ralitsa Hiteva has written a blog about the recently submitted SEG Response to the Energy and Climate Change Committee’s inquiry into the future of the UK electricity infrastructure. 


In November 2015, the Sussex Energy Group submitted written evidence to the Energy and Climate Change Committee’s inquiry into the future of the UK electricity infrastructure. The team, including Dr. Ralitsa Hiteva[1], Prof. Tim Foxon, Prof. Paul Nightingale and Prof. Gordon Mackerron, used research carried out in several projects to reflect on the limitations of today’s electricity infrastructure and made recommendations for addressing these limitations. The full document can be found on the ECC’s webpage, and is available for download here: Sussex Energy Group Response to the Energy and Climate Change Committee [PDF 37.6 KB].

The submission discusses a range of institutional and governance challenges of upgrading the UK electricity infrastructure. It highlighted the importance of flexibility and support for non-traditional business models for energy, especially in the context of municipal energy management, for developing a low carbon network. Three economic values were identified that could be realised by a more strategic approach to smart-grid investment on a city-region basis: (1) Renewable energy connection co-ordination; (2) Inward investment stimulus; and (3) Municipal supplier load control.

The SEG submission also argues that a low carbon network in the UK will introduce more flexibility in the governance of demand and supply, and will involve a higher number of mechanisms, and actors, some of which are not-traditional, for the electricity sector. Prosumers (for example, electricity consumers with solar PV on their roofs who produce electricity, sell electricity to the grid and even buy electricity from the grid) are one such category.

A low carbon network will also imply a more advanced level of integration between several sectors (for example, ICT, electricity and vehicles), alongside more symbiotic interactions and spill-overs between them. This will require creating a space for the utilisation of what Ofgem terms ‘non-traditional business models’ (NTBMs) for energy: a term describing a range of business models that differ from conventional forms of generation, distribution and supply.
The paper calls for the Government and Ofgem to further incentivise innovation and development of smart grid technologies by proactively supporting the development of non-traditional business models in low carbon energy networks, along with more traditional models. New business models could include process innovations enabling new ways of distributing value in the supply chain and introducing innovations that create social and environmental benefits. These have the potential to allow new value to be captured from new technology in new ways. This argument builds on a more extensive discussion of NTBMs in the energy sector submitted in response to an Ofgem inquiry (insert link here) in May 2015.

[1] The contribution to this response is accredited to work funded through the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) and the International Centre for Infrastructure Futures (ICIF) on the governance for smart grid innovations and business models transformations in UK infrastructure sectors.


About the author:

Dr Ralitsa Hiteva Dr Ralitsa Hiteva is part of a team in the International Centre for Infrastructure Futures (ICIF) which investigates changes to the business model of infrastructure delivery and operation at national and urban scales. She is working on developing comparative case studies between sectors and countries. Previously, Ralitsa was part of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) and worked on governance and regulation related to interdependencies between UK Infrastructures for the energy, water, transport, waste and ICT sectors.

Ralitsa’s research focuses on development of low carbon energy infrastructure, particularly smart grids and low carbon vehicles; connection and transmission of renewable electricity and natural gas; and smart cities. Ralitsa is a member of the Sussex Energy Group.

 

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Has the Spending Review delivered a coherent approach to energy innovation? – Jim Watson writes for UKERC

In his new blog for UKERC, Jim Watson reacts to the energy policy implications of the UK Government Spending Review. One of the prominent themes of the review is the need for innovation in energy technologies and systems, which has also been highlighted in the long-awaited energy policy speech by Amber Rudd. Read more ›
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Stimulating innovation in renewable energy technologies: reflections on the German experience

Amber Rudd, the UK’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, in last week’s speech on a new direction for UK energy policy, had a welcome section on the importance of innovation. However, it was also slightly inconsistent. Rudd said that we need to develop cheap and green technologies and that it is the government’s role to be an ‘enabler’. She also outlined the importance of creating new jobs in low carbon sectors such as offshore wind. So far so good. However, she also suggested that ‘Energy research and development has been neglected in recent years in favour of the mass deployment of all renewable technologies’. Juxtaposing innovation/R&D on the one hand and deployment on the other is not particularly helpful as research shows that a credible political commitment to deployment is key for stimulating companies’ investment in innovation and bringing down costs. In addition, phasing out competing established technologies – like the coal phase out Rudd also announced – could also become a key stimulus for investment in low-carbon innovation, as recent research from Germany shows.

Given the current energy policy debate in the UK, what can we learn from past experience of Germany when it comes to decarbonizing its electricity system, promoting innovation, enabling export opportunities and creating economic development and jobs? According to the findings of the GRETCHEN project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research and led by Dr Karoline Rogge, Lecturer and Senior Research Fellow at the Sussex Energy Group at SPRU and Fraunhofer ISI, three key answers emerge:

  1. Consistent instrument mix: The promotion of renewable energies or other green technologies requires a well orchestrated, technology-specific combination of different instruments which stimulate knowledge development in green technologies (so called technology push), create demand for green solutions (so called demand pull) and assist the transition of the overarching system (through so called systemic instruments). In the German case, this aligned approach is exemplified by the combination of guaranteed feed-in tariffs provided through the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), increasing levels of public R&D funding for renewable energies and the provision of a skilled labor force. Interestingly for the UK, German innovators viewed support through the demand pull instrument EEG as more important for their innovation expenditures than public R&D support. They were also skeptical of shifting public support from demand pull to technology push measures, as was suggested by Rudd. In addition to the existence of a consistent instrument mix, the agreed nuclear phase-out by 2022 was considered the most important policy measure stimulating the future deployment of renewable energies. Together, this instrument mix signals attractive green markets which in turn stimulates companies’ investment in green innovation. The existing innovation studies literature supports this point and shows that the focus on government simply as an ‘enabler’ might not be sufficient to achieve a speedy transition towards a low carbon economy.
  1. Firm political will: German companies further emphasized that the strong cross-party commitment to the German Energiewende is an essential driver for their green innovation activities. This finding underlines the importance of a clear political vision and unambiguous political signals for the promotion of green innovation. In the UK context Rudd rightly points to the Climate Change Act as demonstrating this long-term political will, but the medium-term future is more uncertain given the debates about the fourth and fifth carbon budget and recent changes to renewable energy support and energy efficiency policy. The GRETCHEN project showed in the case of Germany that long-term targets by themselves are not a sufficient signal but that both the instruments in place as well as political debates drive companies’ perceptions of the governments’ political will regarding green change. This is exemplified by recent debates in Germany about the future of the EEG and subsequent changes which have created some uncertainty among investors. Partly as a result of this perceived loss in policy mix credibility, the high innovation expenditures of German manufacturers have decreased in recent years and the dynamic growth of patent applications has slowed down, too. For the UK this implies that current changes in its energy policy, such as the roll back of support for renewable energies and energy efficiency, may strongly undermine the credibility of the long-term targets specified in the Climate Change Act, and thus pose a serious threat to low-carbon innovation.
  1. Focus on the benefits of green change: However, it is exactly this green technological change and resulting export opportunities which GRETCHEN project partner GWS has shown to have positive net macroeconomic effects in terms of growth and jobs. Therefore, political debates should place greater emphasis on how the low carbon energy transitions can strengthen the economy and prosperity, as was the case in Germany. Rudd points to the importance of creating new industries and jobs also in the UK. However, for this to materialize the policy mix should recognize the economic advantages of continued expansion of renewable energies for which clear medium- and long-term market prospects are needed. In addition, benefits do not only arise on a national level, but also globally. As a matter of fact, the global expansion of renewable energies is important for climate policy, because it reduces the carbon intensity of global production chains and lowers technology costs through economies of scale and learning effects. As a result it enables countries developing their electricity supply to access renewable energies more cost-effectively. Therefore, policies supporting the development and deployment of renewable power generation technologies represent a major stepping stone for reaching an ambitious global agreement at the upcoming Climate Conference in Paris. In turn, such an agreement sends strong signals for an attractive global market for low-carbon technologies, thus further driving green change. Therefore if Rudd wants the UK to be a champion for example in developing an offshore wind or carbon capture and storage industry, this should not be just seen in a UK context but as a contribution the UK can make to solving the global problem of climate change beyond reducing emissions at home. This should be part of the answer to Rudd’s question ‘What is the UK’s role in that global decarbonisation?’. In short, the German experience shows that green innovation is clearly key for decarbonising the electricity system, but focusing on government simply being an enabler and focussing too strongly on short-term cost reductions may not do the trick. And it may mean that the UK is missing out on benefits arising from stimulating such green innovation.

Karoline Rogge & Florian Kern

Interested in finding out more? Then take a look at the GRETCHEN report “Green change: renewable energies, policy mix and innovation” which Karoline and her project team from Fraunhofer ISI, GWS Osnabrück and University of Jena just published based on research funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as part of its funding priority “Economics of Climate Change” under the ref. no. Econ-C-026. Karoline and Florian are also currently involved in a project looking at policy mixes aimed at stimulating the emergence and diffusion of low energy innovations in the UK as part of the UK RC-funded Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (CIED).

KarolineKaroline Rogge is Lecturer in Energy Policy and Sustainability in SPRU, and Senior Researcher at the Fraunhofer Institute of Systems and Innovation Research. Karoline’s interdisciplinary research focuses on the link between policy and innovation in the energy sector, and ranges from studying the innovation impact of single policy instruments, such as the EU emissions trading system, to evaluating the effects of comprehensive policy mixes for promoting the low carbon transition. Karoline has extensive project management experience and in-depth knowledge of German, European and international climate policy. She has advised the German government for ten years, including as a member of the scientific secretariat of the German Emissions Trading Stakeholder Group and has acted as a consultant to the OECD and World Bank. Karoline is currently leading the GRETCHEN projectinvestigating the influence of the policy mix for renewables on technological and structural change in Germany.

Dr Florian Kern

Florian Kern is a Senior Lecturer at SPRU and Co-director of the Sussex Energy Group (SEG). He has more than eight years of experience in research, consulting and teaching in the area of energy, climate and innovation policy and socio-technical transitions. Florian’s research focusses on policies and policy processes aimed at stimulating the transition to a low carbon economy. His work draws on innovation studies as well as policy analysis and political science. He has published in journals such as Technological Forecasting & Social Change,Energy Policy, Policy & Politics, Environment & Planning C, Policy Sciences and Environmental Politics. Florian is leading one of the cross-cutting projects of the Centre on policy synergies and trade-offs.

 

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